Largish donk bet on flop

AlmostNolanAlmostNolan Red Chipper Posts: 14
edited August 2015 in Live Poker Hands
I played this hand at the Venetian in Vegas today.

It is a 1-2 table, effective stacks are $175 or so. 3 betting is rare at this table and lots of people limp regularly and some never raise preflop. Only one other player besides me is anti-limping.

Hero has QQ on the button. EP raiser makes it $6. Hero makes it $20 and SB and EP both call.

Flop is JT6 rainbow. SB bets out for $50 into $60 pot. SB has around $100 left. EP folds and action is to me.

I had trouble interpreting this bet. I had been playing with this player for 3 hours or so and he had not been playing an overly large number of hands, was fairly aggressive and had moved me off my hand at least twice with good sized raises. He had not gotten caught bluffing on any hands, but did make one big river call against a tight player that didn't seem to be bluffing and the villain lost the hand and reloaded.

Since I had been c betting a pretty high percentage of the time, if he had a really strong hand like a set, two pair or even TPTK or an overpair why wouldn't he wait for me to put money in? I guess a draw makes sense given the stack sizes since he might fear that I am pot committed if he check raises me. And maybe TPTK (AJ) because he thinks he is ahead but isn't sure and wants to take down the pot for sure without wondering where he is if I c bet AK. Of all these I think an OESD (particularly KQ), AJ or KK make the most sense.

What does everyone else think and what would you do?

I considered folding on the theory that he wouldn't bet that much with anything I could beat after I 3 bet preflop. I considered calling with the intent of calling down to the river on most runouts on the theory that I would let him bluff away his money. I considered raising all in on the theory that he was pot committed and I wanted him to get his money in now when his draws still look good.

Comments

  • BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
    I would ship it in and do a happy dance:) In my experience this bet is never ever a set, if they were donking a set to be tricky, they would bet smaller to look like a blocking bet. Same probably goes for JT. Occasionally you will see people think they need to protect bottom two pair, but T6 is extremely unlikely in this situation. I think your read is right on, this is either a straight draw, or a J or T that wants to scare away AK. You could also consider just calling to induce a turn shove from villain, but with the stack size as is, we are set up perfect for a shove, they will probably call with a J or draw after putting that much in already.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A couple weeks ago I stacked off in a very similar situation to a guy donking with a set. Sometimes people just surprise you. Honestly, I never know what to do in this situation. You're usually dealing with players who are semi-competent, but just have some strange thoughts about how to play in certain situations that make playing against them very difficult at times.

    Each of your theories are probably correct :) :cry:
  • vikingxxivikingxxi Red Chipper Posts: 10 ✭✭
    call and look to get it in on turn... folding not a consideration..
  • Ed MillerEd Miller RCP Coach Posts: 330
    You're going to lose this hand a lot. You're going to see AA and KK fairly often or the other QQ occasionally. I think KQ is actually quite unlikely, not only because you block it and because he would have had to cold-call a 3-bet with it, but also because betting near-pot into a 3-way 3-bet pot is a super-strong play and I just really don't see people bluff straight draws like that almost ever.

    I wouldn't rule out a set either honestly. I think you're a favorite to be behind, but you're getting odds, and he could have like AJ or something and not know what else to do but stick the money in. I actually would fold against some players if I had high information on them, but if it's a $1-$2 random I'm committing stacks (because the 3-bet cold-call is less telling, and the betting patterns are less predictable), but getting my rebuy ready.
  • Steve007Steve007 Red Chipper Posts: 363 ✭✭✭
    I'm quickly shoving in this spot. You have an SPR slightly under 3 after the PF action against this opponent and just flopped an overpair. You could be ahead or behind in this spot. So much is villain dependent. I could see KQ here if villain overestimates his hand thinking he has a straight draw with two overcards, and people tend to overvalue the overcard outs, but who knows? Some might 4-bet AA and KK after two raises but the pot was still not that big PF when it got to villain so maybe he would try to slowplay those hands. It's hard to guess how often he bets $50 with a jack. Folding to a jack or a draw is a disaster and there is no way I'm folding here when we could still be ahead. The strongest move from a lot of players in this spot would be a c/r after you bet, but that $50 bet does look strong.
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    Ed Miller wrote:
    You're going to lose this hand a lot. You're going to see AA and KK fairly often or the other QQ occasionally. I think KQ is actually quite unlikely, not only because you block it and because he would have had to cold-call a 3-bet with it, but also because betting near-pot into a 3-way 3-bet pot is a super-strong play and I just really don't see people bluff straight draws like that almost ever.
    Are people flatting 3 bets preflop with AA/KK that frequently? In the SB that are going to play OOP the rest the way? I'd think 10s/JJs from the SB are more likely
  • Ed MillerEd Miller RCP Coach Posts: 330
    -ev wrote:
    Are people flatting 3 bets preflop with AA/KK that frequently? In the SB that are going to play OOP the rest the way? I'd think 10s/JJs from the SB are more likely

    Probably not, but people also aren't donking near-pot into multiway 3-bet pots very often either. Given that the player took this uncommon line, I think you have to keep AA and KK in the mix.
  • KemahPhilKemahPhil Red Chipper Posts: 108 ✭✭
    Based on your description of this individual, it is not likely that he is betting a draw. Most likely hand is A-J. He probably would not have called preflop with J-10. I don't see any way you can fold in this situation so you should probably shove.

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