Thoughts on my thoughts

mdw72mdw72 Red Chipper Posts: 135 ✭✭
edited August 2015 in Live Poker Hands
$2-$5 Hardrock Tampa
Effective stacks $700

Game dynamic: New table that had been running for a little over an hour. I have no history with anyone at the table and have only played with one individual that sat two to my left in the 5 seat. Overall the game is what I would define as weak tight. People are raising pre-flop and getting a caller or two, but hands are not getting past the turn very often. Usually there is a pre-flop raise, followed by one to threeish calls, a flop, a c-bet and everyone folds. This is the exact scenario I have worked my $500 buy in to about $800.

Villain: is in the 4 seat directly to my left. Villain's play is definitely loose. He has seen most flops by calling raises or limping. He has won some decent sized pots with middle to bottom pair. He has even won a pot that was raised pre and then c-bet on the flop checked through on the turn and called a bet on the river. Of the hands he has had to show down most have been suited. Post flop he gets sticky unless you really put the heat on. Usually a pot sized bet on the turn he will get him to fold. The problem is he has stuck around to the river with ten high and the like and won. So its difficult to put him on a range of hands since he seems to be willing to play any hand to the river. He is definitely a regular the dealer knew him by first name before he sat down and some of the other players seem to be familiar with him. I'm relatively new to the room.

Hero: I am a Ed Miller disciple so I try and play as close his philosophy as possible. So I am pretty tight and aggressive when I get involved. I try to play an exploitative style and exercise the "you check, I bet" principle as much as I can. This principle has won me a fair share of pots where I have nothing of show down value. So I rarely limp, c-bet regularly, and when up against one or two opponents I will fire a big second barrel on the turn if checked to in position or even out of position if its checked behind me on the flop. This usually gets quite a few folds.

Hand #1
Pre-flop
Hero: SB; :Ah:Ad
Villain: BB
2 EP Limpers
Cutoff Limped
Button raised to $25
Hero: 3 bets to $70
BB: calls
EP and Cutoff fold
Button: calls
Pot: $225

Flop: :6s:5s:4h

Hero: I like this flop but I am not in love with it. Its connected and double suited. However, I just put in a decent sized 3bet pre-flop so my reads of BB and button's hands are probably big cards or over pairs. With this in mind I decide to make a large bet but not too big. I didn't want to scare off hands like KQ, QJ, or 99.

Hero bets $125 hoping for a call but willing to happily settle for the $225 in the pot.
Villain: moves all-in for his remaining stack which is about $650
Button: insta-folds

In my description above villain is sticky post flop but hasn't been crazy aggressive at all. His physical demeanor is showing a little excitement. He has been fidgeting the entire time he has been at the table, and now seems to be fidgeting a bit more than normal. I start to think about what hands beat me, sets, two pair, 78, 23. Not many hands but I don't have the Ace of spades so I have no back door possibility which makes all of his flush outs clean. I beat all pairs and am currently ahead of any gut shot straight or flush draw. If he as the As x then one of my outs are taken if the flush or the 4 card straight comes on the turn.

So I'm looking at an all in against someone that hasn't been very aggressive post flop, has shown a wide range of hands, has taken them to the river, and seems to like to play an two suited cards. I ask him if he's scared of the flush and he says no. I ask him if he is scared of big cards and he says no. His fidgeting is still there and as I am about to ask another question he says "too much information. Save your chips" He offers to show his cards if I muck. So think to myself that I probably have the best hand at the moment but I have too many cards to dodge if he is drawing and if he does have a made hand I don't have many outs. So I muck. He flips :Qd:Qh

I don't feel too bad about mucking the best hand but I want to get a range of opinions. So please let me know where you think I went wrong.

Hand#2

A little while later with same villain
effective stacks: $800
Villain is UTG
Hero is BB
Villain limps
Everyone folds to button and he makes it $15
SB folds
Hero has :As:Kd and flats.
Villain also flats the raise
Pot $45

Flop :Kc:5s:8d

Hero bets $40
Villain raises to $250
Button folds

I sit and think about what he could likely be betting with this AA, sets maybe QQ or JJ hoping I missed the flop and was taking a stab. There is no flush draw and only 67makes a open ended straight draw. I discount the sets because on a board like this sets are so strong they can weather a call and still be way ahead no matter what comes on the turn. I discount AA because I have an Ace but it is possible. 67 could make a raise like this but its unlikely and it would probably fold to a re-raise or if the straight didn't come on the turn. His fidgeting was still there but I couldn't tell anything from it. I didn't ask him anything this time. So I figure this is a bluff because there aren't that many already made strong hands out there. So despite I only had TPTK I felt my hand was strong enough and played well enough against his range, I shove all in. He snap calls and flips Kh8h and no Ace hits.

I did consider re-raising pre-flop but I decided against it because I had already 3 bet several times out of the blinds and since no one else had, I wanted to guard from getting played back at when I missed the flop and had to act first. Also I wanted to be able to show the table that I wasn't 3 betting all my good hands. I recognize for this particular hand it was probably my undoing but what do you think of my thought process behind it. (trying not to be results oriented).

In retrospect I don't like my shove. I probably could have raised less and got away from it later or I should have just folded and waited. However, with the prior hand still lingering a bit in my mind and the fact he hadn't shown many strong hands on the other pots he won, I went with it. Thoughts?

Comments

  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 780 ✭✭✭
    Hand #1- SPR of less than 3... stack off mode. This is a dangerous board with the description of this villain, his range will be wide and some of it can hit this. I would probably lead big ($200-$250) to see if there was some decent equity out there for sale. Could also see going for CR to get a bluff bet but I would hate to give free card if checked through. Be interested in what others have to say.

    As played stack off.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    In hindsight, it's clear what villain was doing in hand 1: he hasn't stopped to think too deeply about what you have, but you "probably" have AK (they always put you on AK.) So he was waiting to see a flop without an A or K - i.e. flop an overpair - and then he's happy as a clam.

    You couldn't know this, but at this point QQ, JJ, TT and possibly even lower look great to him. Of course he vaguely thinks you might have JJ or TT as well, so he's quite happy in this position but that also means he might not have 99 or TT himself.

    The problem is he could also have a set, 2 pair, or a big draw or combo draw.

    With 2 opponents and such a draw heavy board, I always bet at least $200 here (rightly or wrongly). At least you won't have such a hard time calling a shove at that point! As played I might still call, but shore do hate paying off the donkeys. These wet, dynamic flops are hard because you want to shove it if you're ahead, but you can't tell when that might be.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The problem in hand 2 is that I just can't get past the preflop call. I reraise to at least $50-60 here, whatever image I have be damned. My immediate thought was "you really let villain off the hook here", and then seeing his hand just confirmed it. If he wants to call my raises with K8, game on. Then I don't mind stacking off as much because at least money went in early.

    As played, it's hard to imagine what you're behind here. (You mentioned he might have AA, but AK is just as likely as that.) In situations like this, instead of trying to figure out what I'm behind, I look at it from the other point of view - what am I beating? Is he doing this with KQ? KJ? A8? While no hands that beat you seem very logical, nothing that you beat seems very logical either, so I usually find a fold.
  • Ed MillerEd Miller RCP Coach Posts: 330
    It's funny, because I play these hands the opposite way you did. (Which would have happened to have worked out given results, but it definitely doesn't always.)

    In the first hand, it's a 3-bet pot, there are draws everywhere, and the BB cold-called a 3-bet which is going to mean overpairs a lot of the time. To me there's way too much chance your opponent has an overpair or a draw compared to a set (unlikely) or a made straight (requires him to cold-call with basically exactly 8-7 suited). Two pair is also unlikely for the same reason.

    Honestly I call this and don't think too hard about it.

    Whereas in hand 2, warning bells are blaring in my head. That is not the type of board that players take pot-shots at very often, as it's very hard for him to have a draw. You bet out pot-sized (a sizing tell, IMO), and now this guy makes an absolutely enormous raise. This is not a player who is unsure of his hand, and he's also very likely not bluffing. A-K no good.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file