Tournament 4-handed facing overbet shove

theClubbertheClubber Red Chipper Posts: 167 ✭✭
edited August 2015 in Live Poker Hands
$200 live tournament.

Blinds 2500/5000/500
SB – 80K
BB – 110K
CU – 90K
BU – 355K

Prizes 1st – $3900, 2nd $2640, 3rd 1760, 4th 1210

So I got a small chip lead near the money bubble. Since thne I have been scooping up a lot of blinds and antes with small pre-flop raises and little resistance. Much of the table including 2 of the 3 villains left (SB and cutoff) have been consistently unwilling to fight back without a strong hand. The cutoff limp /folded his SB to me a few times then basically gave me walks. The SB had folded himself down to 7BB. Only the BB had been putting up resistance. He was slightly younger and more splashy and bluffy early. However, he had been mostly playing the final table conservatively. He scored a double knockout with 99 vs AK and AJ to burst the money bubble and had been coasting comfortably in second for a while. However, the small blind just doubled through the cutoff after folding down to 6 blinds. A few hands later the cutoff doubled through the BB so his grip on second place was slipping a bit and he may be feeling some frustration.

Pre-flop Hero raises button 12.5K SB folds BB calls.
Flop (27K) :Js:9d:6s BB shoves for 97K

On the one hand this bet seems like ICM suicide for the BB so he shouldn't be bluffing that often. On the other hand it could be tilt/ frustration or designed for maximum fold equity.

I'm reluctant to say my specific hand ( :Qs:Jd ) since I'm more curious about the broader question of what should be hero's calling range in this spot?

Comments

  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    theClubber wrote:
    $200 live tournament.

    Blinds 2500/5000/500
    SB – 80K
    BB – 110K
    CU – 90K
    BU – 355K

    Prizes 1st – $3900, 2nd $2640, 3rd 1760, 4th 1210

    Only the BB had been putting up resistance. He was slightly younger and more splashy and bluffy early. However, he had been mostly playing the final table conservatively. He scored a double knockout with 99 vs AK and AJ to burst the money bubble and had been coasting comfortably in second for a while. However, the small blind just doubled through the cutoff after folding down to 6 blinds. A few hands later the cutoff doubled through the BB so his grip on second place was slipping a bit and he may be feeling some frustration.

    Pre-flop Hero raises button 12.5K SB folds BB calls.
    Flop (27K) :Js:9d:6s BB shoves for 97K

    On the one hand this bet seems like ICM suicide for the BB so he shouldn't be bluffing that often. On the other hand it could be tilt/ frustration or designed for maximum fold equity.

    I'm reluctant to say my specific hand ( :Qs:Jd ) since I'm more curious about the broader question of what should be hero's calling range in this spot?

    In a vacuum, calling range should be pretty wide here with a 3.5:1 SPR . Draws of 6+ outs, Middle pairs +. It's really not a bet that he would want to get called, right? Is he doing this with a set? Feels like top pair/no kicker honestly, mid pairs could be in their as well, flush draws/straight draws, just really doubt he's doing this with the nutted part of his range. Highly doubt this is balanced moved, and highly doubt it's air.

    In this case, I wouldn't mind folding a little wider though. BB getting up to 140k still doesn't really change the dynamics of the shorter stacks all too much. If they seem content laddering up by folding, this makes it even more tempting letting BB stick around and punishing the players looking to fold their way up the ranks. I recall one of Elky's early final tables where he was just a massive cheap leader, and just punishing the table. You couldn't fault the other players for tightening up since a wrong move could be a massive ICM mistake. Without a doubt, the 200 buy in tournament isn't as deep, but something to consier with you having 67 of the 127 blinds on the table.

    I doubt I could fold QJ or another top pair, but just from my experience, this move is generally indicative of "I caught something, but it's really vulnerable"
  • theClubbertheClubber Red Chipper Posts: 167 ✭✭
    I thought I would share my ICM analysis on this situation. ICM is one of the advanced tournament concepts that I think I understand in theory but haven't dug into in practice to the point where I feel fluent. Let me know if you spot any errors.

    I used the ICM calculator at icmpoker.com to look at the three possible outcomes when the big blind villain shoves. a) hero folds. b) hero calls and wins and c) hero calls and loses. Then I looked at the

    If hero folds, the stacks and $EV will be respectively
    BB - 77K / $1963
    SB - 131.5K / $2361
    CU - 89.5K / $2068
    BU - 342K / $3178

    If hero calls and wins, the stacks and $EV will be
    BB - 77K / $2343
    SB - 0 / $1210
    CU - 89.5K / $2430
    BU - 473.5K / $3582

    If hero calls and loses, the results are
    BB - 77K / $1920
    SB - 233.5K / $2802
    CU - 89.5K / $2022
    BU - 240K / $2826

    If hero calls and wins, he gains $404 in $EV ($3582-$3178). But if he loses, the hit to $EV is only $352 ($3178-$2826). Since the reward is greater than the risk, hero needs less than 50% equity to call. The the break even point is actually 46.6% (352/(352+404))

    I was initially surprised by this result. One central implication of ICM theory is that when two big stacks collide, the players who gain the most are the ones not in the hand. I expected ICM to conclude that hero should be much more conservative in calling. In ICM analysis the difference in equity between $EV and cEV calls can be dramatic.

    What I failed to consider is the great benefit to the chip leader of busting the second biggest stack.
    Knocking out any player guarantees that hero at least 3rd place. Winning this pot gives hero a huge advantage at the top prize with 3/4 of the chips in a 3-handed game.
  • BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
    That is very interesting ICM indeed, I've never considered before the ICM benefit of eliminating the 2nd biggest stack (when we have enough that losing still wont cripple us). However, in theory, villain should also be aware of the huge hit he takes in EV when he risks being eliminated in this spot, especially with 3rd and 4th place being bad players. On the other hand, as you stated, it is possible he is tilting and not making a good ICM decision.

    Without a feel for this specific villain, my instinct on this shove is lots of combo draws and 2 pairs, with maybe a few Qs thrown in. Even if it is weighted more towards draws, I still don't think we are doing great against that range. I would lean toward folding unless I had an strong read.
  • HappySumoHappySumo Red Chipper Posts: 58
    given your description of the table dynamics, fold- he has you crushed. And then start picking up blinds and antes.
  • theClubbertheClubber Red Chipper Posts: 167 ✭✭
    Isn't he more likely to check with the hands that have me crushed? I haven't been shy about c-betting and this is a decent board for it.
  • theClubbertheClubber Red Chipper Posts: 167 ✭✭
    So to demonstrate how ICM leads to some tournament strategy conclusions that are extremely different from cash game decisions, I looked at a variation of the problem where the second stack min-raised and the big stack called from the big blind, then shoved the flop.

    Strict pot odds equity for button to call 43.9%
    ICM equity for big stack to call 46.6%
    ICM equity needed for 2nd stack to call 72%

    For the second place stack, the risk of busting is almost 3x the reward from doubling up. If the BB calls ATC and shoves this flop, the shorter stack has a very close ICM decision with hands as strong as TT and A9. Even :Ts:8s would be a fold.
  • theClubbertheClubber Red Chipper Posts: 167 ✭✭
    FWIW, I called and villain had :Kc:2c for total air and I held. The next hand the two short stacks clashed and I went heads up for the victory.
  • BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
    Yeah I saw this on the other forum. Absolutely nuts. What did the guy say when you called? What an absolute disaster on his part, I guess he was just on super-tilt.

    These kinds of plays always screw up my analysis and thought process, you see stuff like this pretty often in low-stakes online. Its hard to range your opponent and try to make the best decision when there is some chance that someone shows up with something like this.

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