Tricky math help

ThorThor Red Chipper Posts: 41
edited August 2015 in Live Poker Hands
$2/5 game vegas

Button (new player looks like tourist, I say ABC) open raises $20.

small blind (a super fishy young Korean woman-who only plays poker in Korea where no check raises are allowed) calls. She is sticky, calls raises with any broadways. Wont fold any piece. Generally bad and straightforward.

Hero in BB 3bets to $75 with :As:Kd

both players call pot $225

:Kh:6d:2h

SB woman goes all in for $278.

Hero has both players covered. button has $580.

Her range is Kings. flush draws and sets. I don't think she is sophisticated enough to distinguish between combo draws and naked flush draws. I'm not sure she would shove with sets here, so maybe a small discount to sets but very likely for sure.

Hero calls. Any arguments for raising here?

Main question is next part...

Button goes all in for $300 more

so main pot $1050
side pot $300

$300 back to hero to call.

What is the math here? I give button AA, AK or KK, 66, 22. He could have a flush draw, but now they would both have to have flush draws. For some reason I discounted this guy shipping a flush draw (although now that I think about it most tourist ABC players would probably shove here with their draw!) This guy does look sort of nerdy (sorry to stereotype but only read I have). He could be capable of actually doing math and saving his $580 at that point).

The math I'm asking about is...I'm hoping he has AK (6 combos), but could have (AA, KK, 66, 22 (11 combos). If he has AK....what is my equity against her range for main pot?

I tank. I'm really looking at her body language. She does not seem upset that she got called and shoved on. She looks excited to see what will happen next...as I tank Korean girl mutters to herself I'm good. Not a false tell. I'm very sure she has a set.

Comments

  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    I like to start with situations in a vacuum, and table dynamics second. That being said:
    I don't think many people play deep enough to fold TPTK in a 3 bet pot with 2 callers if the board is disconnected. You'd be having to be sitting 100+ BBs deep for the SPR to be more than 3 and I just don't think the effective stacks are getting that deep all to frequently.

    I know 66 and 22 could be in the 3bet call range, but seems more the exception than the rule. I don't think I could weigh those 6 combos all too heavily.

    Thor wrote:
    Hero in BB 3bets to $75 with :As:Kd
    both players call pot $225
    Is a tourist flatting KKs or AAs? You add this to their range later in the hand, but if a player is ABC, I tend to think they are just going to repop it. However, I might be outdated in my thinking here. I was felted by a player in a very similar circumstance (AKvAA, my 3bet from SB flatted by Button, K on flop) that I labelled as an ABC recreational that had a wide gap in their VPIP/PFR and was playing 60% of pots. I wouldn't think a tourist is range balancing by flatting, but their reason for flatting could coincidentally balance.

    I think 75 is giving the opponents good odds here. $55 to see $115 for Button, which is enticing with position, and if SB is notably sticky, Button could be factoring that in as well. At the same time, I'm not sure if I'd have many bluffs in my range if I went with an $80+ squeeze.
    Thor wrote:
    :Kh:6d:2h
    SB woman goes all in for $278.
    Hero has both players covered. button has $580.

    Her range is Kings. flush draws and sets. I don't think she is sophisticated enough to distinguish between combo draws and naked flush draws. I'm not sure she would shove with sets here, so maybe a small discount to sets but very likely for sure.

    Hero calls. Any arguments for raising here?
    My reason for raising, I don't want to fold for the 300 more if I flat and button bets. Playing TPTK isn't going to be easier on the following streets, and personally wouldn't think button flats with AA pre.
    Thor wrote:
    Button goes all in for $300 more

    so main pot $1050
    side pot $300
    $300 back to hero to call.

    What is the math here? I give button AA, AK or KK, 66, 22. He could have a flush draw, but now they would both have to have flush draws. For some reason I discounted this guy shipping a flush draw (although now that I think about it most tourist ABC players would probably shove here with their draw!) This guy does look sort of nerdy (sorry to stereotype but only read I have). He could be capable of actually doing math and saving his $580 at that point).
    I've mentioned AA and KK and why I'm not 100% sure that it is in Button's range. You are giving him a super-nutted range, where the only thing we are ahead of is FDs which have great equity against us. No KQ/KJ here? It'd definitely be optimistic on his behalf, unless he pins both of you on FDs.
    Thor wrote:
    The math I'm asking about is...I'm hoping he has AK (6 combos), but could have (AA, KK, 66, 22 (11 combos). If he has AK....what is my equity against her range for main pot?
    AA(6), KK(1), 66(3), 22(3), if you are actually against this, you're looking at 3.5% equity against this range

    If you think that a player is only doing that with above range and AXh flush draws, you are 33/67
    If they have other flush draws in their range, you gotta go with it.
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    Do you have Equilab, Thor? I'd recommend it if you do not. Costs nothing but minimal hard drive space
    http://www.pokerstrategy.com/poker-tool ... ab-holdem/
  • ThorThor Red Chipper Posts: 41
    Thanks for the reply. I do not have eqilab or anything like it..good suggestion.

    I put all pairs in both of their ranges pre flop. I put more Kings in SB range both pre flop and especially post flop. SB was not smart Button does not play like it 2005...but isnt a 2015 reg. I think all players have learned to smooth AA and KK rather than 4 bet. And I think that these same players will set mine with 10x odds with any pair.

    I am comfortable playing against these two opponents post flop. I want the small blind to play...she is the worst player in the game. SO pricing to $75 and getting call call is ok with me. I do not want fold fold here. Especially since both ranges are wide. I try not to blow everyone out of the hand pre flop. I want action.

    Post flop. I do not put :K? :Q? or :K? :J? in the buttons ranges. He isnt an idiot, but by calling instead of raising on the flop I do have a greater chance of worse hands continuing...so probability of :K? :Q? for button call is higher if I call flop versus raise. ready to donk away $580 more with 2 opponents on that board. Once again this is 2015. for $580 people can lay down Top pair when they see strength, strength, and strength.

    The button does not know SB is bad or sticky. He is new and doesn't think at that level.

    The reason I posted this is is everyone probably calls. But...I folded after Small blind said she was good. Button had :A? :K? and small blind had :Kd:2c

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