Donk River when Board Pairs?

jimbo123jimbo123 Red Chipper Posts: 107 ✭✭
edited August 2015 in Live Poker Hands
Some discussion on the way I played this hand on all streets would be appreciated. Villain is a good reg who plays an unorthodox style of mainly limping preflop, with hands ranging from KQ to AA etc.

Live £1/£2. £300 effective

UTG (V) Limps, HJ Limps, BTN limps, I check BB :Ac:4s .

Flop :Qc:8c:4c Pot £8. I lead £5, UTG calls, loose BTN calls.

Turn :Qc:8c:4c:Ah Pot £23. I lead £15, UTG raises to £40. I flat.

River :Qc:8c:4c:Ah:8s Pot £103. I overbet £150.


I think leading out with the Ac is fine, not sure about the turn though? I want to get value from QxKc type hands but could possibly check? I think folding to the turn raise in hindsight is better, when I hit my boat or a four flush its difficult to get paid I think.

I overbet the river here as I think its extremely difficult for the turn raiser to have a full house. I don't think he's raising the turn with any boats, and if he has Q8 it isnt strong enough to reraise the turn with. Also I have the Ac so the nut flush isnt possible either, so I think he's capped at the king high flush.

I have an absolute ton of Q8, Ac8x combos in my range and by overbetting I think I can bluff a reasonably balanced range here with a ton of these combos. I think the 8 is absolutely the best card in the deck here, does anyone agree with this or have I gone a bit wonky? : )

Comments

  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    jimbo123 wrote:
    UTG (V) Limps, HJ Limps, BTN limps, I check BB :Ac:4s .
    No problem seeing a flop without putting in additional money. If we raise to get folds, we'd have to raise relatively large. If we get called, our A4o is crushed by their calling range, IMO. Let's see the flop for no more £s!
    jimbo123 wrote:
    Flop :Qc:8c:4c Pot £8. I lead £5, UTG calls, loose BTN calls.
    Not a fan of checking, unless you can rely on a CR. Since I normally can't rely on anyone to bet a monochromatic flop, leading is better IMO
    jimbo123 wrote:
    Turn :Qc:8c:4c:Ah Pot £23. I lead £15, UTG raises to £40. I flat.
    Why Flat(especially to overbet riv if that was the plan)? 2 pair with the redraw to the nut flush, I'd be happy to click it back. AX could definitely float the flop, especial :A? :Xc . I think a set you would have heard from earlier with such a clubbed board. If they already have the flush, we still have 25% equity for another club or the boat to come. Are we capping our range by flatting? I think so.
    jimbo123 wrote:
    River :Qc:8c:4c:Ah:8s Pot £103. I overbet £150.
    I don't get this. It seems the hands you are getting to fold are ones you'd be chopping with. You do have the nut flush blocker, but would the nut flush flat the turn to set up a riv overbet? I don't think an 8x boat is really showing up here frequently, you have more of them than your UTG villain, but you still don't have many of them IMO.
    jimbo123 wrote:
    I think leading out with the Ac is fine, not sure about the turn though? I want to get value from QxKc type hands but could possibly check? I think folding to the turn raise in hindsight is better, when I hit my boat or a four flush its difficult to get paid I think.
    It might be hard to get paid off. Usually the board pairing isn't too scary on a disconnected board, but that's only if you know your flush is clean. If you boat, you know they also have to fear a bigger flush. Kc or Jc would probably have a hard time folding. Guess the turn is an inflection point where it's going to be very player specific. I think I'd still rather raise than flat, but I guess our implied odds do take a hit with our particular draws if our 2 pair is no good. Could our V be raising with a combo draw on the turn? Guess it would have to be pretty limited to :Kc Jo or :Kc 10o
    jimbo123 wrote:
    I overbet the river here as I think its extremely difficult for the turn raiser to have a full house. I don't think he's raising the turn with any boats, and if he has Q8 it isnt strong enough to reraise the turn with. Also I have the Ac so the nut flush isnt possible either, so I think he's capped at the king high flush.
    You said his unorthodox style would have him limping just about everything, which makes me think that the turn raise could be :A? :Kc . If I floated flop with the K high flush draw and hit an ace, I wouldn't be opposed to semibluffing here. Ther are just 2 combos of it though, so I should probably quit looking for the 'what if' hands.
    I think Q8 raise would be fine by V. Mainly for value, it wasn't a club on the turn, and you're :Ac:Xc range is fairly limited. You know more often than not a club isn't coming on the river, and (I don't think this is just because I know what you have) it seems like you're playing the hand like a lone big club
    jimbo123 wrote:
    I have an absolute ton of Q8, Ac8x combos in my range and by overbetting I think I can bluff a reasonably balanced range here with a ton of these combos. I think the 8 is absolutely the best card in the deck here, does anyone agree with this or have I gone a bit wonky? : )
    Gotta love a negated 2 pair! I don't really think either player has a 'ton' of Q8/A8 in their range. I don't know. From what Ed says these larger river bets are ones not to pay off, but how many people actually make the laydown? It would take a person with a lot of gamble in them to make this call with a lot of the holdings that got here

    The river shove just feel like a panic-eject button with that beautiful 8 on the river. Not saying it can't work, but IDK. Were you planning the same jam when you do hit your flush/boat? I still think the turn 3 bet feels more natural. If you click back and v calls, you have 110 into 180.

    How many more combos are you getting to fold by going 150 instead of a pot size or 80% pot bet? Maybe a lot more, I don't have much experience with the overbet so I'm not too sure
  • BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
    First of all, I love the creativity of this river overbet. I think the thought process is great, combining hand reading, blockers , and our own perceived range to come up with an out-of-the-box play. But do we think it is profitable? I'm not sure yet. Overbetting is not something I really have in my game but I think it can be very profitable if done well (i.e. if you pick the right spots and apply some balance).

    Flop: I think lead is fine. I sometimes worry that this lead looks exactly like the nut flush draw, so I don't always do it to avoid making a play that looks like my exact hand. But then again, I rarely lead out of the sb in general. If you have a leading range, this hand is fine to include in it.

    Turn: I don't think we can consider folding. Even if our implied odds aren't great, we are getting close to direct odds. And if you think his range is strong enough to consider folding this hand, then surely he will call a moderately-sized bet on the river even if a scare card comes.

    Now to the shove. It sounds like you are putting him pretty squarely on a made flush. I think flushes do make the most sense with his line. I suppose a set could play this way, although if villain wanted to check-raise a set on this board, many players will choose to do so on the flop rather than the turn. I also think AQ, A8, AK (especially with :Kc ), and AA (if you really think he'll limp this pre) and some occasional wacky stuff should be considered a small part of his range as well. Its hard to imagine a pure draw like :Kc:Jd playing like this.

    So on the river, I think you are correct to conclude that your hand has very little show-down value, which sucks. But if we want to shove as a bluff, we need to consider 2 things: 1)how much of his range is now a full house (which is never folding), and 2)can we expect to get folds from flushes?

    I think that full houses are a relatively small part of villain's range (although definitely present). I just don't have confidence that a random 1/2 player will be able to fold a flush. That is why I think this would be a fun spot to overbet for value if we had A8 or even Q8. And remember, when the bet is so large, it needs to work very often to be profitable. I personally don't see that happening, unless you know that villain is a nit when facing large bets and will be able to fold a flush.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    jimbo123 wrote:
    I don't think he's raising the turn with any boats

    That is one thing that everyone can agree on :lol:

    jimbo123 wrote:
    I have an absolute ton of Q8, Ac8x combos in my range

    That's not quite how I'd phrase it.....
  • jimbo123jimbo123 Red Chipper Posts: 107 ✭✭
    Thanks for the replies all! I've had a read through and can't find much to disagree with.

    I think I'm pleased with the play, but yes would agree its pretty unnecessary at lower stakes. Fwiw £1/£2 is the most common live cash stakes in the UK, all sorts play it, £2/£5 is relatively rare here. I think you guys are right, not many people are gonna fold the flush (although thats why I overbet it).

    It's not that my hand doesnt have any showdown value, rather that I think his flop cold-calling and turn-raising range has very little nutted combos! The 8 is an absolutely amazing card for us as the cold caller. I really think the only viable combos in the deck which can bring a rivered boat/quads are 88. I think that:

    1) A8 is unlikely, as I hold the Ac and there arent any other A8s with decent backdoor equity. Think anyone decent just mucks it on the flop
    2) Q8 I think just flats the turn
    3) 88 is a small possibility but theres just 1 combo on the river.

    Hence there's little to hands in his range which can call such a huge bet and all his K high flushes etc are bluff catchers.

    Anyway for what its worth...I overbet, he tanks for 10s and ships lol. I sigh curse life and say how do you have a house etc (I know the bloke quite well), I eventually folds he shows AA haha. Also yes its hard to turn a boat on that board.....

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