getting a 3 bet cold called...

EazzyEazzy Red Chipper Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭✭
edited August 2015 in Live Poker Hands
Playing !-2

Villain 1 HJ with about $70...has been short stacked since I sat down...about an hour...second hand he raised....seems pretty passive...

Villain 2 is SB a bit less then $200....tourist...seems pretty passive a little loose, really done nothing note able in the hour or so we have played...

Hero (has both villains covered)..been a bit frisky in the first hour of play, partly some hands...and partly the fact that two of the players are making lots of $5 raises...and with any hand I would have opened (and a few I might not have) I've 3 bet them to 15 to 25 depending on how many callers and or limpers...but no 3 bets over size raises....I have won a number of hands with little or no hands being shown down. mostly picking up the hands pre flop or on the flop bet.

PRE FLOP

v! folds to HJ...V! ($70 short stack) makes it 12, fold to Hero on btn with :Qh:Qd I make $35....and V2 SB (200 ish) cold calls $35


FLOP....3 Players and 100 ish pot.

:Js:8c:4h

V2 (sb)...bets out $40 (with about 120 behind) he seems to be shaking a bit...v2 folds....and its up to me...?????

Now without any where near the odds to set mine...I have to think V2 range Cold calling a 3 bet has to be pretty strong...This alone probably means QQ is no good...add in the shaking and I make a sickish fold...


Thoughts appreciated...

Comments

  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    I like the preflop raise, really should be getting the short stack to jam or fold and leave you the ability to come over the top when they do jam. I hate when Villains don't comply!

    Not sure if V2 is touristy that they would be aware of the set mining odds. AJ I don't think would get V 'shaking' if it's excitement, and if he's been playing a passive fit or fold, the lay down is probably right.

    An hour of live play is kind of a small sample size if they are notably passive. Maybe they could be excited for less than trips, but doubtful. Most turns are going to be groan calls if V continues, so I'm not opposed to the fold
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,069 -
    I just bomb it in. If he has KK+ or JJ, good for him (but it's only 15 combos vs 6 of TT, 16 of AK that he doesn't know how to react with, possible 12 combos of AJ, etc.). But tourist + he's likely sick of your "nonsense aggression" + small SPR = I drill it in.
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  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You're giving villain a lot of credit. People also shake when they are nervous and don't know what they are doing. If he's so passive, why isn't he letting you stack off? A tricky bet to induce at 1/2 and which doesn't correspond with your description of him? When the small 3bet may have encouraged an overcall with a weaker than suspected range?

    I'm all for making a great read and a great fold but this looks very cautious.
  • BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
    Edit: Split and Persuadeo beat me to it and posted while I was writing, this becomes a bit redundant.

    When Jared Tendler talks about live reads, he always begins by cautioning that these reads should primarily be used to help sway close decisions, rather than cause you to deviate drastically from correct fundamental play. In order to make an extreme deviation, you have to be close to 100% sure that your read is correct.

    Folding to this bet strikes me as an extreme deviation from correct play. Villain is betting 1/3 pot. You are near the top of your range (I assume; if you are only 3betting JJ+ then you are actually at the bottom of your range). Plus he is donk betting small, which I always read as likely to be weak. Sure, when someone is shaking, it often indicates they have a strong hand, but I think it would still be a big mistake to fold at this point. I would at minimum call the flop and then try to get more information going into the turn.
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote:
    People also shake when they are nervous and don't know what they are doing.
    I think if you were to lay odds on shakey being strength versus weakness at the poker table, strength wins out 5:1. The adrenaline can be pumping for various reasons, but a $40 weak lead going to cause this with 77 going to be a cause of it? I'd be really surprised personally.

    Game theory wise, I'm all for jamming. And yes, this is a pretty big deviation from game play where you have to be pretty certain it's the right read. I just feel that the hand trembling is more of a universally reliable tell than most
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Sure. I use live reads heavily. I agree that shaking is generally strength. What I am saying with all my questions is that I would want all the information to add up before I fold the top of my range, and I am not sure yet that is the case here.

    Could be the right fold, obviously.
  • EazzyEazzy Red Chipper Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭✭
    I'm a little surprised that no one put him on a range here. I mean a cold call of $35 to a 1-2 player is not done very often....

    too me its AA KK...or JJ-aa and AK....I could be totally wrong here but it happens by stacks of 100bb or less so rarely I have to assume its a very tight range. do you guys see this happen in your games a lot when the games are not deep.

    SPR and top of my range thinking...kind of takes second place to REM (the forgotten chapter)...unless you can't range your opponents ((their very aggressive or they or very erratic).

    I mean split counts the combos he has that beat you and says its a small number jamb it in....but the hands he plays this way is a very small number (at least by my assumptions)...
  • theClubbertheClubber Red Chipper Posts: 167 ✭✭
    Ugh I hate folding, but I also see the flat as super strong.

    For the math, assume villain is jamming or we have no fold equity. We would have to call 160 to win 260, so we need 38% equity. For me it boils down to how many jacks are in his range.

    If his range is JJ+ then our equity is 12%. If we add AJs to his range we climb to 23%, but that's still not great. If we think he has AJo and AJs in his range, our equity jumps up to 41%, If he's sometimes bluffing AK here (let's say every AKs) we have 45% equity.

    I think calling is worse than either raising or folding. We are unlikely to improve or get new information on the turn, and we're unlikely to get much more value from or other bluffs unless they improve.

    From the physical tell and your general ability to run over the table, I don't hate a fold. What seems more likely- a random 1/2 villain widening his calling range due to your aggression, or a more typical tight 3-bet calling range that is betting for value? Since the times we're behind, we're way behind I probably lean toward a nitty fold.

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