Should I fold AK on this flop?

neilv93neilv93 Red Chipper Posts: 67 ✭✭
edited October 2015 in Live Poker Hands
Blinds at 150/300(25), 10-handed in a $40 tournament. I'm UTG with 9,900 behind and raise to 750 with :Ah:Kh and receive three callers - +2 with 6,700, Villain in the CO with 14,300 and the SB with 7,600.

Flop comes :As:Ks:8c , I continue for 1,600 into 3,550. +2 folds and Villain min-raises to 3,200. SB folds and it's back on me. What's the play here?

Pot is 8,350, I have 7,550 behind and Villain has 10,350. If I jam there's 15,900 in the middle and he only needs an extra 4,350 to call so he's effectively committed. From my perspective I flopped pretty much gin into four opponents and as it played out I shoved and got insta'd by Villain and his :8d:8h . Is there an argument for folding here? He's called an UTG raise and the flop is obviously all over my range so :8? :8? and :A? :8? , in hindsight, seem like the only logical raising hands on this board? So now I'm thinking I maybe could and should've folded. I don't really see the point in calling because there isn't pretty much no card that comes on the turn that makes me like my hand less so if I did call I'd still just end up getting it in.

Is there a genuine argument behind folding or is this literally a just 'get it in and bemoan your bad luck when you get coolered' situation? For the record, Villain had just joined the table and is typically a good player (he had literally just won another tournament in the casino about thirty minutes prior).

Comments

  • theClubbertheClubber Red Chipper Posts: 167 ✭✭
    neilv93 wrote:
    Is there a genuine argument behind folding or is this literally a just 'get it in and bemoan your bad luck when you get coolered' situation? For the record, Villain had just joined the table and is typically a good player (he had literally just won another tournament in the casino about thirty minutes prior).

    Can't fold. It sucks if he has 88 but we can still bink 4 outs. Villain could overvalue AQ, could be semi-bluffing good draws like :Qs:Ts or :9s:8s .

    If I had AJ or AT here I would have a harder decision.
  • ChipDouglas1ChipDouglas1 Red Chipper Posts: 95 ✭✭
    agree with TheClubber....SPR is too small to fold when there are more draws out there than made hands that have you beat (he could easily have A8 as well as the draws)
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,867 -
    neilv93 wrote:
    Blinds at 150/300(25), 10-handed in a $40 tournament. I'm UTG with 9,900 behind and raise to 750 with :Ah:Kh and receive three callers - +2 with 6,700, Villain in the CO with 14,300 and the SB with 7,600.

    Flop comes :As:Ks:8c , I continue for 1,600 into 3,550. +2 folds and Villain min-raises to 3,200. SB folds and it's back on me. What's the play here?

    Pot is 8,350, I have 7,550 behind and Villain has 10,350.

    At the time when you get raised you are committed to the pot. Basically, you are about to contribute 33% to the final pot. Against this (nearly worse case) holding you still have 18% equity.

    What else does he do this with?

    If we put in all the top two, and sets,
    :A? :K?
    :8? :8?
    :K? :K?
    :A? :A?

    we are 28% to win.

    If Villain EVER does this with

    :Ad:9d
    :Ac:9c

    We are 41% to win.

    Add TPTK:

    :A? :Q?

    We are 64% to win.

    Add in
    :Qh:Jh
    :Qh:Th
    :Jh:Th

    We are still 63% to win.

    It is the rare Villain that we can safely fold this to.

    You got broke, well played.
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Can't fold because there are too many :A? :8? , :9s:8s type hands that would do this too. And this is coming from someone who HAAAATES paying off donkeys who minraise me.
  • JulesJules Red Chipper Posts: 441 ✭✭✭
    neilv93 wrote:
    Blinds at 150/300(25), 10-handed in a $40 tournament. I'm UTG with 9,900 behind and raise to 750 with :Ah:Kh and receive three callers - +2 with 6,700, Villain in the CO with 14,300 and the SB with 7,600.

    Flop comes :As:Ks:8c , I continue for 1,600 into 3,550. +2 folds and Villain min-raises to 3,200. SB folds and it's back on me. What's the play here?


    Is there a genuine argument behind folding or is this literally a just 'get it in and bemoan your bad luck when you get coolered' situation? For the record, Villain had just joined the table and is typically a good player (he had literally just won another tournament in the casino about thirty minutes prior).

    :bomb s away! Never folding. Sounds like villain was a luck box that day.... :roll:
  • tagliustaglius Red Chipper Posts: 290 ✭✭
    Doug gave you all the reasons not to fold based on what opponent could have, let me flip it around for a second. If you ever think it's correct to fold here, then you're probably not taking enough hands to the wall yourself in this situation.

    You need to have a nice mix of strong hands, semibluffs, and some weaker bluffs also when you stick your stack in the middle here. So our sets/AK represent the monsters, :Qs:Js and :Qs:Ts and :Js:Ts for strong semibluffs, pair+draw like :8s:9s and :8s:7s and then maybe some naked gutshots or bottom pairs when you think there's a reasonable chance you'll get folds.

    Once your range is mixed up in this way, then the good players will have trouble playing against you.

    We can always fall back on "lol don't balance in the micros" but I think it's important to think this way. In a nutshell, if we're thinking about folding top 2, then we're not being aggressive enough overall. If we're being properly aggressive, then top 2 is an auto-stackoff most of the time.
  • Jimmy3150Jimmy3150 Red Chipper Posts: 362 ✭✭
    Top two pair vs set on flop on this board ... you're supposed to lose your entire stack ... just unlucky
  • swally234swally234 Red Chipper Posts: 8
    Unfortunately you can't play poker if you're concerned about people flopping sets. It's just one of those spots that is not profitable to fold.

    You played the hand how I would, like Jimmy said - you're supposed to lose your stack here.

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