question for Ed Miller on DFS article

BotswanaNickBotswanaNick Red Chipper Posts: 696 ✭✭✭
edited October 2015 in Off Topic Chat
Hey Ed,

Congrats on your article on Daily Fantasy Sports, it has really got a lot of traction, as it should. It was very timely, and the first article I've seen that has taken a neutral, data-based approach to a topic that most people come into with strong biases, vested interests, and misconceptions.

(article here for those who haven't seen it): ... ports.aspx

I have two questions. The first is just what your dataset and methods were, I can't seem to find them listed in the article or elsewhere (perhaps I'm missing something obvious?)

This leads into my larger question, how representative do you think these data are across the wider dfs landscape, particularly in regards to other sports. I am diving into daily football for the first time this year, and given the large variance and small sample-sizes inherent in this sport, it seems likely the payouts will have a far different distribution and variance than for baseball. More generally, how do you feel about the discussion and conclusions that have come from your article? I have already seen many people site your 90% to 1.3% statistic when discussing football or DFS in general (not baseball), so it feels like (as usual) people are reading the heading and extrapolating to incorrect conclusions based on an incomplete understanding of the analysis. Love to hear your thoughts on these questions or other aspects of the article or industry.


  • Ed MillerEd Miller RCP Coach Posts: 330

    We got the data from a 3rd party. It covers roughly 3 months of data mostly from MLB season, though I'm not sure exactly how thorough the coverage is.

    I think the edge for sharp players is roughly comparable between MLB and NFL... actually probably bigger in NFL. But in NFL there are so many more casual players that the negative ROI for rec players is less.

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