# Calculating EV with side pots and incomplete data?

Red Chipper Posts: 83
edited October 2015
In the following situation, how do we calculate Hero's overall EV when shoving AK here?

2/5 live game

UTG opens to \$10
UTG1 (\$120) calls \$10
MP2 (Hero, \$380) with AKo raises to \$35
MP3 (\$50) is all in for \$50
HJ (\$300) calls \$50
UTG folds
UTG1 is all in for \$120
Hero?

Hero has assigned the following ranges (Hero is not me and I disagree with these ranges but will go off his estimations anyway for arguments sake):

UTG1: 77-99, AT, AJ.
MP3: 99-AA, AQ, AK.
HJ: 99-JJ, AQ.

So if he shoves, HJ either folds or calls. Hero believes HJ is likely to call.

If HJ folds:

Hero is betting \$85 into \$272 (23.81%).
Main pot would be \$217, side pot \$140.
Hero would be 34% to win the \$217 main pot.
Hero would be 61% to win \$140 side pot.

Hero is calling \$15 into \$202 for main pot (6.91%)
Hero is calling \$70 into \$70 for side pot (50%)

If HJ calls:

Hero is betting \$265 into \$522 (33.67%)
Main pot is \$217, first side pot is \$210, second side pot is \$360.
Hero would be 26% to win \$217 pot.
Hero would be 38% to win \$210 pot.
Hero would be 56% to win \$360 pot.

Hero is betting \$15 into \$202 for main pot (6.91%)
Hero is betting \$70 into \$140 for first side pot (33.33%)
Hero is betting \$180 into \$180 for second side pot (50%)

I calculate the EV for each individual aspect as follows:

HJ folds:

Main pot: +58.78
Side Pot: +15.4

HJ calls:

Main: +41.1
Side: +9.8
Side: +21.6

With all this data, how do we calculate Hero's overall EV for shoving?

• RCP Coach Posts: 4,082 -
At first glance it looks like you are exactly on the right track. This is how to do complex EV calcs:

https://youtu.be/ym1774AC5Ww

But it will need to be expanded a bit further for the times (HJ calls + you win) and (HJ calls + you lose)
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• Red Chipper Posts: 83
So am I right to be working out the EV for each side pot as well as the main pot?

Do you just add these numbers together?

So when HJ folds our EV is 58.74 + 15.4 = +\$74.14
And when HJ calls our EV is 41.1 + 9.9 + 21.6 = +\$72.6

Does that sound right?

Also, is AK just generally always profitable in these kind of spots?
• RCP Coach Posts: 4,082 -
So am I right to be working out the EV for each side pot as well as the main pot?

yes.

Essentially there are 5 things that can happen:

1. HJ folds and we win the main pot
2. HJ folds and we lose the main pot
3. HJ calls and we win it all
4. HJ calls and we win the side, but lose the main
5. HJ calls and we lose it all

find EV of each happening, add them all together, and now you have the EV of the play =)

And yes, I expect AK to be +EV here.
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