Calculating EV with side pots and incomplete data?

PescatarianPescatarian Red Chipper Posts: 83
edited October 2015 in Live Poker Hands
In the following situation, how do we calculate Hero's overall EV when shoving AK here?

2/5 live game

UTG opens to $10
UTG1 ($120) calls $10
MP2 (Hero, $380) with AKo raises to $35
MP3 ($50) is all in for $50
HJ ($300) calls $50
UTG folds
UTG1 is all in for $120
Hero?

Hero has assigned the following ranges (Hero is not me and I disagree with these ranges but will go off his estimations anyway for arguments sake):

UTG1: 77-99, AT, AJ.
MP3: 99-AA, AQ, AK.
HJ: 99-JJ, AQ.

So if he shoves, HJ either folds or calls. Hero believes HJ is likely to call.

If HJ folds:

Hero is betting $85 into $272 (23.81%).
Main pot would be $217, side pot $140.
Hero would be 34% to win the $217 main pot.
Hero would be 61% to win $140 side pot.

Hero is calling $15 into $202 for main pot (6.91%)
Hero is calling $70 into $70 for side pot (50%)

If HJ calls:

Hero is betting $265 into $522 (33.67%)
Main pot is $217, first side pot is $210, second side pot is $360.
Hero would be 26% to win $217 pot.
Hero would be 38% to win $210 pot.
Hero would be 56% to win $360 pot.

Hero is betting $15 into $202 for main pot (6.91%)
Hero is betting $70 into $140 for first side pot (33.33%)
Hero is betting $180 into $180 for second side pot (50%)

I calculate the EV for each individual aspect as follows:

HJ folds:

Main pot: +58.78
Side Pot: +15.4

HJ calls:

Main: +41.1
Side: +9.8
Side: +21.6


With all this data, how do we calculate Hero's overall EV for shoving?

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