MTT: Bustout flush over flush

Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,876 -
edited November 2015 in Live Poker Hands
I hate calling anything a cooler if there could have been improvement.

I think I mis-played this hand on the river, but maybe not.

$300 MTT 11 of 161 left. I have ~25 BB, no more obvious short stacks on the Final Table bubble. Prize bump is moderate ($200 ish) for the 10th vs 11th. Six handed.

UTG+1: Decent guy (Jose) who has several times commented on how he respects my play. He has seen me patiently work up from 6BB pre-bubble to 25BB, going up the pay scale as larger stacks do stupid things to bust out or double me up.

Button: (Party Guy) Huge stack running hot. Here in Vegas to have fun and gamble. Doing both exceptionally.

Jose opens UTG+1 to 2.5 BB. Earlier, I doubled up on him as a short stack when he made this same open with JTo and then he called off versus my AJs. His EP raise means something, but not much.

Button calls. This proves he has two cards that are related to each other in the sense that they are from the same manufacturer.

This is a big ante round (the antes make a full BB), :Qs:Js I consider a raise, but stack sizes are wrong and I doubt I can raise these guys off their hands. I also doubt I am raising for value. 3:1 on my money, I think I need to defend.

Pot is ~10BB
My stack is 23BB

:Ts:6s:2d

A not much flop. I check. Jose makes a tiny bet of 3BB Party guy folds. I think the lower variance route is to call and make a hand instead of putting up a fight on flop. Getting direct odds to catch a flush on the next card.

Pot is 16BB
My stack is 20BB

:Ts:6s:2d:3s

I check with intention to check-raise all in or lead any river with possible exception of a fourth Spade.

Check-Check

Pot is 16BB
My stack is 20BB

:Ts:6s:2d:3s:5h

I bet 8BB
Villain shoves.
I unfortunately snap call.
and am shown
:As:9s

I am not sure if I am being results oriented. The river bet, what hands am I targeting for value? There are some stray :T? that might call me. I think my value bet could have been smaller to target those hands.

What am I beating when I get raised? Now that I look at it away from the table, there are a couple of inferior flushes, but there are lots of nut flushes. I don't think the weird straight or an unlikely set make this raise. I don't think he is ever making a hopeless bluff.

Given all that, I think the play was 5BB bet-fold on the river. Against a worst player, I think my play is fine since plenty of these guys would have felted with worse here. This guy was reasonably competent though and I think that means bet fold is the answer.

I have also considered and dismissed the check to induce river. I don't think he bets as bluff on the river often enough to try this.

Or maybe it was just a cooler. :)

Thoughts?
Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
Author Poker Plays You Can Use
Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks

Comments

  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    Preflop: Getting too good of odds to fold, but...

    The part I'm not sure on preflop
    Could you raise to 8-9 bbs as a squeeze and fold to a jam? Jam I'm guessing would be JJs+ AK, leaving us 24% equity against Jose, and probably a lot wider against Button.
    After raising to 8, if 1 V jams it would be 17 to see 39 BBs if we wished to continue. I think we could 3 bet fold, but not 100% on that. UTG raise is a little off putting, but you mentioned it meant something, but not much. What was the position when Jose opened J10 off earlier? If it was EP-MP, it might have more validity that the squeeze could take the pot now or get heads up with the more mistake-prone player. Wouldn't Jose essentially have to rip or fold here? Flatting seems like it would be restricted to a very small portion of his open range.

    Don't get me wrong, I see nothing wrong with a flat, and what I default to, but wanted to investigate a squeeze

    Think preflop, flop and turn are standard and optimal(assuming the squeeze is wrong). Donking the flop or turn seem bad, have to call flop. Okay with the C/R plan on the turn. So, the river....

    I think I like check call here. I'm not sure what hands that we beat can call a raise. There hasn't been action since the CC on the flop, which is a big piece of bait for someone in position with the worst of it. I think in this spot it's better to focus on catching bluffs. It does set us up for a tough decision if they rip river, but I think a 6-10bb bet is a lot more likely, regardless of their holdings. Maybe the naked :As rips river as a bluff

    Throughout the day (I did not feel like replying on a mobile phone today), I was trying to find a way to justify the call after the lead. You should have relatively zero perceived fold equity, and I can't find a realistic way to put a 4 in villains range(and if a 4 was here, I'd think it'd be more prone to call than rip). I'd find it odd if V was raising UTG with a 98s, 87s, which are really all we are hoping V has at this point. Assuming they aren't some leveling jedi, I think you can let the hand go after the raise.

    Would your resolve for this hand (lead for 5 bb) open it up more to bluffs on the river or should our FE still remain pretty nominal?
  • Doug HullDoug Hull RCP Coach Posts: 1,876 -
    -ev wrote:
    Preflop: Getting too good of odds to fold, but...

    The part I'm not sure on preflop
    Could you raise to 8-9 bbs as a squeeze and fold to a jam?

    I am 100% getting called or raised by these two. Most likely called.
    -ev wrote:
    I think I like check call here. I'm not sure what hands that we beat can call a raise. There hasn't been action since the CC on the flop, which is a big piece of bait for someone in position with the worst of it. I think in this spot it's better to focus on catching bluffs. It does set us up for a tough decision if they rip river, but I think a 6-10bb bet is a lot more likely, regardless of their holdings. Maybe the naked :As rips river as a bluff

    This guy had zero bluffs here. Not going to happen. I should have focused on getting a crying call from TP and overpairs. Then folding because of lack of bluffs. Now party guy would have been totally different. He shows up and pays off with all kinds of stuff.
    Co-founder Red Chip Poker,
    Author Poker Plays You Can Use
    Author Poker Workbook for Math Geeks
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,376 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Process of elimination helps here. Squeeze/folding is a disaster, punting off much of a playable stack versus an EP open, even against a balanced range, maybe even more so against a balanced range. That leaves four choices. Shoving as an unexploitable maneuver should be considered, but it is too many bbs to risk. Squeeze calling is a punt. That leaves flatting or folding as the best options, each with their virtues.

    If you call, x/r flop is not good. This is a cash game play which values hand equity over tournament equity. It's sloppy. You will also get called or shoved on by the EP range too often, as your hand will look like a ten or a draw. Leading is better in a tournament, as it is cheaper and invests less bbs to fold out Ax hands with no spades that would have folded to the x/r that cost more, but you have to have the discipline to fold when shoved on, which is fine because it leaves you with a perfect reshove stack. It either works or it doesn't to represent top pair or draws villain doesn't want to play against. Since Jose cleary has Axs in his range, obviously, it will work a profitable amount of the time. Result here is that you lose, but depending on what you do and how he reacts, you lose an unknown amount, and some portion of the cooler is potentially avoided, say one half, at very least. No cooler.

    However, you did not lead, you x/c, which also makes sense but will play differently. Now you have the 3rd nuts with very little room to fold. If you bet five bbs on either the turn or the river you will level yourself into a call versus a good player, which you indicated he was. If you bet seven to eight bbs you can still be heroed, but can fold more confidently, knowing he has no fold equity and you will be left with a reasonable open shoving stack. It's half a cooler if played this way, as you lose a significant portion of your stack and don't see showdown, or you mistakenly call and lose everything.

    Finally, you can fold this out of position. Even with tournament bet sizings, your hand is unplayable at less than 30 bbs OOP and SPR thanks to the button party boy, and is thus relying on its equity alone, which is not particularly strategic. QJs specifically is rewarded either by aggression on boards higher than 8, or with position. Instead, you have neither. It's so much better a call from the button, where you aren't faced with a final bet for your tournament life. Completing for pot odds is not really much of a strategy, it's the limit poker fantasy of the no limit risk taker. You're not actually purely defending anymore after the button calls, anyway, so that concept is negligible. I understand that getting in a pot with party boy is tempting, so the argument is all shades of grey. The result, however, is not: no cooler, you are still in the tournament.

    Your hand, then, roughly speaking given these possible lines, is 1/6 pure cooler, 5/6 mild overplay, 100% tough spot.
  • Morgan_BMorgan_B Red Chipper Posts: 262 ✭✭
    Leading is better in a tournament, as it is cheaper and invests less bbs to fold out Ax hands with no spades that would have folded to the x/r that cost more, but you have to have the discipline to fold when shoved on, which is fine because it leaves you with a perfect reshove stack. It either works or it doesn't to represent top pair or draws villain doesn't want to play against

    That makes sense but I would hate to bet-fold this hand on the flop. I think check-call makes the most sense.

    Preflop I think QJs is worth seeing the flop. Including the antes wouldn't you be getting 3.75:1 in the SB and 5:1 in the BB?
    What am I beating when I get raised? Now that I look at it away from the table, there are a couple of inferior flushes, but there are lots of nut flushes. I don't think the weird straight or an unlikely set make this raise. I don't think he is ever making a hopeless bluff.

    Given all that, I think the play was 5BB bet-fold on the river.

    Doug I think your analysis is correct. The 5BB bet will occasionally get paid off by worse and you can safely bet-fold vs. this opponent.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    Wait... Lead/Fold the Queen High Flush when the board Four-Straights on river and opponent check backs Turn when Flush fills? Lol.
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    Lauren wrote:
    I am sorry to drag this out but I don't understand why this is a call pre flop???? It seems like a 3bet or fold hand. If both villains sticky, why not a fold pre-flop...????
    I don't think any apologies are necessary!

    2.5 UTG1 + 2.5 BUT + 1 Antes + .5 SB + 1 BB leaving 1.5 to call from BB. It'd have to be an ugly hand for me to fold, but I'd probably be calling too wide thinking I'm getting waaay to good of odds to fold. At 25 BBs, I think it's worth 1.5 to speculate a bit.

    Doug was saying there is no FE, so that takes away the reason for raising. Being that they were his villains, guessing he saw there 3 bet calling range was far too wide to try. To me, I would default to 3 bet this against the population unless UTG was spandex tight or I had a discernibly loose image
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    Wait... Lead/Fold the Queen High Flush when the board Four-Straights on river and opponent check backs Turn when Flush fills? Lol.
    It's a 4 straight with about the most unplausible card needed to fill it. Is there anyone on RCP with a 4X in there UTG bet range? Seems like our V's shouldn't have any in there range, or at least too infrequently to really be concerned about it.

    I don't know, I tried to find a way to have V show up with a straight we are beating here, couldn't find one. Really feels the 4 straight is a non factor
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    -ev wrote:
    Wait... Lead/Fold the Queen High Flush when the board Four-Straights on river and opponent check backs Turn when Flush fills? Lol.
    It's a 4 straight with about the most unplausible card needed to fill it. Is there anyone on RCP with a 4X in there UTG bet range? Seems like our V's shouldn't have any in there range, or at least too infrequently to really be concerned about it.

    I don't know, I tried to find a way to have V show up with a straight we are beating here, couldn't find one. Really feels the 4 straight is a non factor

    It's a factor for Hero though. We should be betting here a ton. So our betting frequency goes up here..

    But if we bet/fold the queen high flush here... Then what are we bet/calling with?... Only the nuts?

    Seems incorrect to be betting at such high frequency and then folding the top of range.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm not seeing the straight as a factor either even for hero. Not sure how he gets to the turn with a 4 in his hand, let alone the river.

    Anyway, for me this is a 100% call preflop, with donkey button in the hand. Heads up against Jose it's a fold.

    I'm never folding this river either, because the way the hand went down, there's just too much chance villain doesn't have a flush and doesn't put us on one either.

    And BTW, once I'm this shortstacked and deep in the tournament I stop worrying so much about balance and start worrying more about math and tournament payout calculations. Rightly or wrongly.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,376 ✭✭✭✭✭
    In theory you should never fold your queen high flush here. So going broke is right and optimal if that your core and overriding principle. The straight does create a dynamic on the river where Villain can value own himself with worse; and even if it didn't, a strong argument could be made for bet calling.

    However, we do have information in the OP that contradicts the need to go broke, information that explains the dynamic between Jose and Doug, and he can leave himself a perfect shove stack if he uses it.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote:
    I'm not seeing the straight as a factor either even for hero. Not sure how he gets to the turn with a 4 in his hand, let alone the river.

    100% incorrect. Hero could have 104s, 64s, 24s, and even 54dd makes a ton of sense.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    I think bet/folding two pair is OK. But the Queen High Flush... That's just really something lol.
    What if Villain has A4dd, or 98 of spades?

    Also Hero bet sizing is pretty bad given he will not have many bluffs on this run out so bet sizing should decrease. Possibly 1/3rd pot is a better bet
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote:
    I'm not seeing the straight as a factor either even for hero. Not sure how he gets to the turn with a 4 in his hand, let alone the river.

    100% incorrect. Hero could have 104s, 64s, 24s, and even 54dd makes a ton of sense.

    "Decent guy (Jose) who has several times commented on how he respects my play"

    ??? So Doug has been playing good poker (as far as Jose knows), and Jose expects him to call a UTG raise from out of the blinds with one of those pieces of junk? I mean there was actually some debate here about whether he should call with QJs in this spot, but now we're talking about T4? The only slight possible exception to the crap hands being 54, which I also think is a fold preflop, but even if he sees the flop, villain thinks we might make it through the flop with a gutterball on a flush draw board, with a mini-stack? I mean wow, that sounds like quite a parlay to me as opposed to a "ton of sense", but if you say so....
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote:
    jeffnc wrote:
    I'm not seeing the straight as a factor either even for hero. Not sure how he gets to the turn with a 4 in his hand, let alone the river.

    100% incorrect. Hero could have 104s, 64s, 24s, and even 54dd makes a ton of sense.

    "Decent guy (Jose) who has several times commented on how he respects my play"

    ??? So Doug has been playing good poker (as far as Jose knows), and Jose expects him to call a UTG raise from out of the blinds with one of those pieces of junk? I mean there was actually some debate here about whether he should call with QJs in this spot, but now we're talking about T4? The only slight possible exception to the crap hands being 54, which I also think is a fold preflop, but even if he sees the flop, villain thinks we might make it through the flop with a gutterball on a flush draw board, with a mini-stack? I mean wow, that sounds like quite a parlay to me as opposed to a "ton of sense", but if you say so....

    If you think this is all insane, then you are over-folding way too much in MTTs.
    104s can be a call pre. We have a suited hand with a Ten in it.
    54dd is a 100% a call preflop and a call or raise on Flop a good amount of the time.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well yeah, but you're talking about folding in MTTs generally. Here we're talking about being out of position with only 25 BB left in a 3-way pot, specifically. As was already mentioned, this isn't even a blind defense issue, really.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    But it is a blind defense issue to start if you are arguing that we cannot have 4x hands.
    I'm presenting you all the 4x hands all of which are legimate calls from the BB.
    Also, there are 11 left, meaning one table has 6 players and the other 5 players forcing ranges even wider.

    25 Big Blinds is heaps in an MTT. Also, the shorter you get, the wider you should defend the BB.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,376 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If Doug is playing QJs he's likely playing 54s so that is an important point, but I think Jose will know in general that Doug just doesn't have many fours. Doug just isn't the guy to flat 104s, etc, no matter what you think of it.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I guess I don't understand what you mean by blind defense then, since there is already a caller on the button. That's not how I think of it, but maybe other people have a different definition of it.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    Point is, we land at the river with a value betting range of two pair, some 4x, and some flushes.
    We should also have a bluff range which would likely be hands like AJdd.

    However we don't have many bluffs on this run out so our bet sizing should decrease. (This was a mistake by Hero)

    Now we get raised... Considering our range as a whole, the Queen high flush is way up there in hands we are betting river with.
    And now we want to fold?
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    jeffnc wrote:
    I guess I don't understand what you mean by blind defense then, since there is already a caller on the button. That's not how I think of it, but maybe other people have a different definition of it.

    Blind defense means you are calling from the Big Blind.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    Arguing a fold is pretty insanse when we beat portions of Villains river value raising range.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote:
    If Doug is playing QJs he's likely playing 54s so that is an important point

    Yeah, and like I said 54s is an exception in the list of hands I called junk, but the reason I called it quite a parlay was:
    - Doug has to call the raise preflop
    - and Doug has to call (not raise) on the flop with an 11:1 gutshot getting 4:1 immediate and barely enough to call assuming full stack implied odds
    - and that's assuming we don't discount at all for the flush draw, meaning Doug might really only have 3 outs
    - and is still going to bet the river even if a flush comes

    Some of those things are more likely than others, but taken together I think it's quite a stretch. I personally find 44 to be far more plausible than most of those other 4x hands, although CS said he listed all the 4x that might call, so I'm a little confused about that. Maybe he's saying 44 would have shoved preflop? But I think Jose would have to consider Doug might call with 44.
  • Christian SotoChristian Soto RCP Coach Posts: 2,195 ✭✭✭✭
    44 is a call also pre flop.

    The more value bets you find which are worse than the Queen High Flush, the more you must call with the Queen High flush. #PokerSocrates
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    Wouldn't any made flush we beat raise the turn in position? Call it protection or value, I don't see the 9s Xs flush checking behind. Would be hard for a missed A or K flush draw to think we would fold to a raise with the odds being given. Think the river raise is just so nutted our queen high flush can't be good
  • SaintsTigersSaintsTigers Red Chipper Posts: 244 ✭✭
    I think this is one of those spots where you have to give yourself a chance to win a big pot and just call. You have a strong made hand, he checked back the flush-filling turn, and there are a reasonable amount of plausible hands in his range that you can beat. You're in the home stretch of the tournament and winning this big pot can help you make a run at the top 3 spots. Yes, you could go broke, but the upside potential outweighs that IMO.

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