Hand 1 of Double barrel challenge

MhooliMhooli Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
edited October 2015 in Challenge Forum
6 max online.

Villain raises in CO. Hero three bets w AQo. Villain flats. I put him on range of

JJ-99. 98s+, suited Broadway's, AJo+, and KQo

Flop is 9h 5c 4c

I bet. He calls.

His range is now

JJ-99, 98s, T9s, AJo+, AJc, ATc, KJc, KTc, and JTc

Turn is Kh.

Will they fold top pair? No. How often do they have top pair? 15%

Will they fold medium pairs? Prob call with pair of jacks through nines. 30%

Will they fold draws? No. 11%

Will they float? No

Will they raise anything but two pair plus? Prob not. How often two pair plus? 5%

If I bet half pot, I think I get folds 40% of the time. Called 55% and raised 5%

If I never win when called I show + EV when I bet this turn

Comments

  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,941 -
    Nice. Welcome to the challenge Mhooli!
    My new book lays out the playbook for AK. Grab your copy and start Optimizing Ace King!
  • MhooliMhooli Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
    Hand 2 of the challenge.

    6 handed 25 nl online

    I open on the button with :Ad :Jd

    Villain calls in the small blind.

    His range is 99-66, A9s, A8s, KTs, K9s, QJs, QTs, JTs, T9s, KTo, QJo, and QTo.

    Flop is :Ac :Kh :5d

    He checks. I bet $1. He calls.

    His range is A9s, A8s, say 4 combos of middle pair with back door flush draw, and 31 gut shots., and 4 JTs.

    Turn is :Qs and he checks.

    Will he fold top pair? Maybe but prob not. He has that 11%

    Will they fold medium pairs? Probably. Has that 15 percent of time.

    Will they fold draws? Yes. They don't have any big combo draws. All draws are gut shots and they aren't guaranteed to win, so I think they fold a lot of draws here. 70% of range is gutshots.

    Will he float? I don't think so. Not much to represent on river ie no flush. Worse

    Will they raise anything worse than 2pr+? No. They have a straight 8% of the time.

    Obviously betting is profitable here as they are folding approx 80% of the time. But his hand is fairly face up, I am way ahead of his range, and I fear little to no draws coming in, I check here to induce bluffs and thin value on the river from villain.
  • MhooliMhooli Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
    Similar to yesterday's action. This time at 6 handed 10 nl.

    I raise on the button with :2s :2c

    Villain calls in SB.

    His range is 66-99, KTo, QTo, QJo, A9s, A8s, KTs, k9s, QJs, QTs, JTs, and t9s.

    Flop is :Ad :Js :3c

    I bet. He calls. His range is still his suited aces, 15 middle pair hands, 32 gutshots, and t9s.

    Turn is :9d

    Is he ever folding top pair? No. He has that 11%

    Will he fold medium pairs? Let's say half the time. Means he's calling 16% of the time.

    Will he fold draws? Not fd or oesd. That is 35% of the time.

    Will he float again? Maybe to rep straight or flush on river. Say 3%.

    Ever raising with less than 2 pair? No. He has 2 pair 5% of time, but that was already included in top pair hands.

    Given that he is calling 55% of the time, I do not show immediate profit betting any 2 cards. Given that I am at the bottom of my range with very little chance to improve and I do not know how to to react to many river cards; I conclude this is not a good double barrel situation.
  • MhooliMhooli Red Chipper Posts: 5 ✭✭
    Hand 4 of the challenge.

    6 handed online 10 nl. There is an UTG limper. I have no stats on him. I raise in the cutoff to .40 with :8s :8h

    Limper calls. Theoretically his range is tight, prob TT-KK, AQ+ and KQs. In reality it is prob any pair and any two Broadways.

    Flop is :7d :8d :Qh

    He checks, I call. If he calls with every middle pair and higher plus any gutshots or better draw, he calls 50 percent of the time and his range looks like KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 77, 48 combos with a Q, 5 flush draws without a queen, and 16 gutshots without a queen.

    Turn is Jd. He checks.

    Will he fold top pair? Most likely not. He has top 32%

    Will he fold medium. Probably. He has 16%

    Will he fold draws? Prob not. 6%

    Will he float again? He may be tempted as this is a coordinated board, but his range doesn't have much float in it. Say 3%

    Will he raise anything but 2pair plus. I don't think he raises with 2 pair. And iffy with straights. Def flushes. He has straight or flush 9%

    He is calling about half the time here. So this is not an auto profit bet. But given our hand strength, we are well ahead of the vast majority of his range, so that is why it is a profitable bet. The small percent of the time we are behind, we have outs.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file