$1/3 trips in a big pot

jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited October 2015 in Live Poker Hands
Local $1/3 game, usually plays great, but tonight we're only 7 handed and there's some generic grumbling about the action players not being there. I know most of the players and they're all pretty tight, not all are great but competent or better. We've been playing an hour and half. No one has been caught bluffing yet. One guy I don't know seems to be playing tight, has talked about pot odds for a flush with 2 outs missing, and asked "how deep are you?" So he seems to be a thinker.

Someone mentions how tight I am. I've gotten AA twice, raised both times, and showed down both times. That and stealing some blinds and $9 pots got me to $460. Villain has me covered (he bought for $500.)

I raise :Tc:8c UTG to $10, which has been my standard tonight. 3 callers (of course, now everyone has a hand), including villain in small blind. Flop is :Qh:Td:Th . Villain checks, I bet $30, only villain calls. Turn :Ks . I bet $60, villain check/raises to $160. I tank briefly, decide the K is too good of a card for me (even though it could just as easily be good for him), and call. River :4c . Villain bets $200. It's by far the most aggressive action and biggest pot of the night so far. I can only beat a bluff, but at least I can tie T9 and JT. Also, I'm thinking my hand seems underrepresented since I just can't see him putting me on a T here. So he's either hoping I have AA or KK and he's got me crushed, or he simply thinks his AQ is a really good hand here (seems unlikely), or he's thinking I would lay down a hand like AA/KK/AQ/KQ.

Comments

  • HappySumoHappySumo Red Chipper Posts: 58
    Based on your description I think you can comfortably fold to the $200 bet.
  • In The DarkIn The Dark Red Chipper Posts: 243 ✭✭✭
    I don't think it matters if you fold or call. It's ~3-1. Folks do bluff and calling offers more closure. You're also butting up against the commitment threshold.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,376 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Villain's line plays more like J9 than a naked ten, which would likely protect against hearts on the flop. I'm not sure if villain is the one talking or what he plays like, so it's a tough decision as described.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yeah, in hindsight I think I underestimated J9.

    Here's what I was thinking, and I need to figure out if my thinking is wrong. When I play pretty tight (obviously this hand isn't tight, but they don't know that yet), I feel like I can get exploited sometimes. In this example, villain is never putting me on a T, which means that no matter what he thinks I have otherwise (AA, AQ), he can raise me on a board like this and push me around.

    If he did have a hand, I felt at the time that QT, KT, JT and T9 were his most likely hands, and then the rest were bluffs or semi-bluffs. If so and the bluffing is over some threshold, then it's a call. If you throw J9 in there, which is actually more likely than the other hands, then that threshold has to be higher.

    So I called. He showed :Ac:8d .
  • ivandurstivandurst Red Chipper Posts: 124 ✭✭
    Creative (if overly eager) villain, nice call hero. I may have rolled over like a weenie because I rarely see a c/r on the turn that isn't nutted. Sounds like you're in some tough 1/3 games...
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    That game isn't usually like that. I left after a couple hours.
  • aaarrgghaaarrggh Red Chipper Posts: 85
    so from oop he floated the UTG raiser with A8o on that board? It looks like he really thought he could push you around (except he got punished for his arrogance :-)). Me I fold to the check raise without hesitation, I have been shown J9 enough times to know that I would hate myself for the rest of the night if i pay that off (a better T is also a possibility). On top of that most rivers put extra pressure on my hand or blank completely and now I stare at another $200 bet. I am sure i can find a better spot than this to put my stack on the line
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,376 ✭✭✭✭✭
    interesting. You have a bluff catcher, block the other ten, and are being given reasonable odds, so that's where this was going anyway.

    It's just hard to play a bluff catching strategy sometimes. In a tough game, which maybe this was, I would think about going with it on the turn rather than playing the guessing game on the river.

    From villain's perspective, I think he made an error not in recognizing your range, but in playing his hand fundamentally. He should never have gotten involved originally against an EP raiser, and then when he turns his hand into complex move, he has only one relevant blocker to guide him. If he is using the ace to say "it's slightly less likely my opponent has aces or ace king," what does he have? Good effort by him, wrong spot overall. Also, once you call the turn it's hard to fold on the river.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yes, I realized on the turn that I was probably committing myself to the rest.

    I think it's a terrible preflop call by villain, the way I've been playing.

    I think I probably should have folded the turn, but I suppose I was a little in shock, thinking to myself "ha, I tricked him, he'll never think I have a T." I also put too much emphasis on thinking the K was a good card for me.
  • Jimmy3150Jimmy3150 Red Chipper Posts: 362 ✭✭
    Wow ... What a move, haven't seen anything this creative in 1/2 for a long time. Villain dependent I would have folded the turn, agree once we've called the turn we're committed.

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