1/2 River Over Bet Decision

Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 669 ✭✭✭
edited October 2015 in Live Poker Hands
1/2 Casino

Villain $142 UTG+2: He bought in short and was splashing around. He was not positionally or stack depth aware. He recently doubled through me by calling an UTG $12 raise with :5s:4s and a $53 stack. He flopped a draw, shoved and got there on the turn.

Hero $250 BB :Qs:8s Early in session not sure what my image is yet, but I'm fairly certain Villain wouldn't be paying attention any way.

3 limpers, SB call. Hero checks.

FLOP: :Ts:8d:3s $10

SB checks
Hero: $10
Villain Calls
3 Folds

TURN: :Ts:8d:3s:Js $30

Hero $15
Villain Calls

RIVER: :Ts:8d:3s:Js:Td $60

Hero: checks/???
Villain: All-In $115**

**He just shoved all his chips in in a big messy pile. It looked like another pot, but it was his stack. I don't know if that means anything, but it was very noticeable. Is this some sort of tell?

I have a pretty good hand in a limped pot. But I don't know how to read players like this. He shoved earlier with a draw, but he had less in chips.

1) Do I need to lead the river?
2) Can I make this call?

Comments

  • HappySumoHappySumo Red Chipper Posts: 58
    at 1/2 this kind of bet is usually toward the nutted range. Even against a player who is 'splashy'. I would fold.
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,082 -
    HappySumo wrote:
    at 1/2 this kind of bet is usually toward the nutted range. Even against a player who is 'splashy'. I would fold.

    If he had 2pr/set on the flop, is he really just going to call the flop bet on such a texture though?
    📑 Grab my custom poker spreadsheet pack right now.
    📘 Start the Preflop & Math Poker Workbook today.
  • ivandurstivandurst Red Chipper Posts: 124 ✭✭
    I think you made a turn bet-sizing error - you have nearly the nuts against a knuckle-dragger, you should be trying to get stacks in. This guy's calling pot again with any J, 9, lots of spades, and likely a ten. Bet at least $25 here and you really can't mess up the river.

    As played on turn, I lead the river. The whole point of betting $15 on turn was to keep Tx in his range I assume, so go for value. He's not flatting 2 pair or a set nearly enough on the flop or turn to be worried with these stack sizes. Shit, I might even overbet this river against this particular opponent (loose, clueless, short-stacker), as he'll still call with any Tx obv, many Jx, all XsXs, 97, Q9.

    As played on river, I'm never folding. Our read is he's unaware, and that probably includes relative hand strength too. The hand I'm most worried about is a bigger flush, I'm severely discounting the possibility of a poorly played set/2 pair that filled up, though not ruling it out. Your hand doesn't look like a flush here. He's got more smaller flushes than larger, some Tx, and enough missed draws to not lay down. You only have to be right ~40% to make this profitable, and given our assumptions about villain, you have more than a bluff catcher.
  • ivandurstivandurst Red Chipper Posts: 124 ✭✭
    HappySumo wrote:
    at 1/2 this kind of bet is usually toward the nutted range. Even against a player who is 'splashy'.

    Based on our evidence so far, I would escalate him to a "recreational fish/gambler" player type, but that is certainly up for debate. :)

    EDIT/HIJACK: I just turned forum pro - coaches what do I win?
  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 669 ✭✭✭
    As played on turn, I lead the river. The whole point of betting $15 on turn was to keep Tx in his range I assume

    Nice analysis. I felt I beat too much of what he was willing to shove with and made the call. He did, in fact, have a :T? .
  • ivandurstivandurst Red Chipper Posts: 124 ✭✭
    Skors3 wrote:
    As played on turn, I lead the river. The whole point of betting $15 on turn was to keep Tx in his range I assume

    Nice analysis. I felt I beat too much of what he was willing to shove with and made the call. He did, in fact, have a :T? .

    NH hero :) way to detach from results and post a hand that you won, but weren't certain about your call.
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,082 -
    ivandurst wrote:
    HappySumo wrote:
    at 1/2 this kind of bet is usually toward the nutted range. Even against a player who is 'splashy'.

    Based on our evidence so far, I would escalate him to a "recreational fish/gambler" player type, but that is certainly up for debate. :)

    EDIT/HIJACK: I just turned forum pro - coaches what do I win?

    You win a high-five!
    📑 Grab my custom poker spreadsheet pack right now.
    📘 Start the Preflop & Math Poker Workbook today.
  • ivandurstivandurst Red Chipper Posts: 124 ✭✭
    SplitSuit wrote:
    ivandurst wrote:
    EDIT/HIJACK: I just turned forum pro - coaches what do I win?

    You win a high-five!

    I accept! o/\o

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file