2/5 River Bluff Spot

Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 668 ✭✭✭
edited November 2015 in Live Poker Hands
2/5 Casino

Villain: BB $700 Has been at the table for about 2 orbits. He came from another table. He has played only a couple hands. My impression was that he is at least a solid player.

Villain 2: SB $1500. Nice guy was kicking my butt all night. He was a better player than I am.

Hero: Button $590 :Qs:9s

Folds to Hero $20, both blinds call.

FLOP: :Jd:Td:4h $60

SB: Check/Fold
BB: Check/Calls
Hero: $40

TURN: :Jd:Td:4h:6h $140

SB: Check/Calls
Hero: $115

RIVER: :Jd:Td:4h:6h:7d $370

SB: Checks
Hero: ???

I missed my draw but I have been the aggressor since the beginning of the hand. What's my best play?

Comments

  • Morgan_BMorgan_B Red Chipper Posts: 262 ✭✭
    The only way you're going to win the pot is to bet. So far he doesn't want to fold so it may take some convincing... If you bet about 60% pot or $240 you leave only $175 in front of you. It looks like a value bet but he's come this far and might call out of curiosity. He has to fold at least 39% of the time to be a profitable bluff. If you shove all-in $415 into $370 he has to fold at least 53% of the time to be a profitable bluff.
  • Jimmy3150Jimmy3150 Red Chipper Posts: 362 ✭✭
    Hmmmm... I'm not so sure here.

    If villain is a good player I very much doubt he's checking all the way to the river here with the intention of giving up. He probably has a well constructed plan for getting to this point with the intention of out playing you again. What range is he calling you with on the flop? Flush draws, AJ ... Sounds like he could be getting trappy on the river with a flush, maybe he thought you might bluff off your entire stack.

    Seen this check-call line so many times with a flush draw with the river then being check-raised. There's no way you're calling a check raise so I suggest you give up at this point.

    I like the cbet on the flop but to be honest we don't really have a strong draw in the first place with two to a flush being out there so personally I would have been checking back the turn.
  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 668 ✭✭✭
    I like the cbet on the flop but to be honest we don't really have a strong draw in the first place with two to a flush being out there so personally I would have been checking back the turn.

    I tend to bet my draws especially when I have taken the lead in a hand. I was thinking :Xd s were good for me as well as my actual draw, should either hit. Do you believe that he's more likely to have a :Xd draw than I am? And therefore I shouldn't be repping it in the future?
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,039 -
    He looks pretty capped at 1pair to me and the only 98 i think he has is :9h:8h since I don't see him c/c the flop with :9d:8d and i don't think he gives the turn action with 98o or other 98s combos.

    $300 sounds right to me.
  • jimbo123jimbo123 Red Chipper Posts: 107 ✭✭
    I think this is a really nice spot to overbet the turn, as I don't think the BB is flatting JJ or TT, and he probably raises JT and 44 on the flop.

    Whether or not its a good hand to do it with, I'm not so sure of, although I guess you do block some of the stronger Jx hands like QJ and J9. I think even a solid player in the BB will (and should) peel a lot with suited hands like Q6s, T7s and stuff like that getting a great place so I think his range is pretty weak.

    I don't think you have too many bluffs on the river except hands like KQ etc so I think you can definitely bluff Q9 here. We have a lot of value hands like JT(9) TT(3) JJ(3) 44(3) 98(4?) AA-KK(12) Flushes(15 or something like that so we can bluff quite wide here. I don't like betting huge on the river due to the fact we have a lot of value hands in this spot - I think a nice bet of about 0.75psb works best.
  • Jimmy3150Jimmy3150 Red Chipper Posts: 362 ✭✭
    Not at all - I'm fine with the representation in general. My concern here is the villain who's been dominating you all night. This check/call line is so passive/weak that when's it's used by a good player it's often to trap.
  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 668 ✭✭✭
    I need to stop posting these hands late at night. Big typo in there.

    The BB, so the new Villain, was the one check calling me down. The SB, guy who had my number, folded to the c-bet.

    Not sure how this changes everyone's responses.
  • Jimmy3150Jimmy3150 Red Chipper Posts: 362 ✭✭
    Changes things a lot. With few reads on the new guy from another table I think you should fire the 3rd barrell for ~$300.
  • jimbo123jimbo123 Red Chipper Posts: 107 ✭✭
    IMO it doesnt change anything at all, the exception being perhaps playing against a complete call station who will call you down with any pair.

    Even a "superior" player will know he can't just call down here with anything he called the turn with. This is a favourable run out for you, and accordingly you should have enough bluffs against him/her to make sure he actually pays you off with your value hands when they occur.

    As a side note, notice how amazing it is that both flopped top and second pair are diamonds. That reduces a lot of his flush combos, like second pair with a flush draw which'll see another bet on the turn the exception being a hand like 54dd and A4dd.

    I think its a really good thing to be able to identify a player that you respect, but never ever let that get you down. You might pass up a lite-3betting spot or fold a bit more versus a button open, but don't let it effect your play post-flop. Just play your ranges sensibly and you'll be just fine : )
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,220 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If your plan is in fact to play all draws fast it makes sense to show up with some missed draws here as part of a three barrel strategy.

    If you don't like the result you could consider that cbetting this board is not required.

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