can i find a fold?

aaarrgghaaarrggh Red Chipper Posts: 85
edited November 2015 in Live Poker Hands
1-2 casino

Hero CO $300
Villain HJ covers

villain seems pretty transparent and just complained about a guy "leaving with his money" after he lost a couple of pots to him for around $120 total, looks like rec player

all fold to CO who opens $11
Hero has :Ah :6h 3bet to $26
all fold to CO who calls
pot is $50 after rake

flop :Kd :Kh :6s
CO checks Hero bets $40 CO quickly calls pot is $130 and there is $234 behind

at this stage, given the player and the way the action went plus physical reads Hero is almost 90% sure Villain has a K that he is slow playing so Hero is ready to give up on the hand

turn :Th
villain checks Hero, based on read, checks to keep his flush draw alive

river :2h
Hero value bets nut flush for $90 and has $144 behind, villain snap shoves making pot $454
Hero snap calls and Villain takes pot with :Kc :Tc

i think the big mistake from Hero is to snap call here, first it's always right to think when you don't have the nuts, second probably it would have been possible to gather more info based on further reads, asking questions etc.
I guess thinking it through a bit harder could help a fold and also Villain hadn't been at table long enough to know if he would grossly overvalue trips or not

looking off the table the only hands that beat us and make sense are :Ks :Ts and :Kc :Tc and we are getting 3:1 money

helpful thoughts?

Comments

  • Jimmy3150Jimmy3150 Red Chipper Posts: 362 ✭✭
    Given a paired board and your read on villain that he has the King (hence he's about a 96% favourite to win the hand); I think you need to find the check/call line on the river. This may have still resulted in the river being shoved and you losing your stack however more likely he would have value bet the river.
  • aaarrgghaaarrggh Red Chipper Posts: 85
    Jimmy3150 wrote:
    Given a paired board and your read on villain that he has the King (hence he's about a 96% favourite to win the hand); I think you need to find the check/call line on the river. This may have still resulted in the river being shoved and you losing your stack however more likely he would have value bet the river.

    I can't check call, I am CO and he is HJ, he checked the river to me and i value bet, i forgot to say explicitly he checked the rvr
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,085 ✭✭✭✭✭
    3bet is very small and villain can continue with his entire range profitably, that is the real problem here.

    On the flop he should be calling with his almost entire range on the paired board, so you have to decide what the purpose of the bet is and if you are going to double barrel.

    The small 3b resurfaces, naturally, as the problem on the river, when he can still have lots of hands we beat and now we have to cooler ourselves.
  • aaarrgghaaarrggh Red Chipper Posts: 85
    persuadeo wrote:
    3bet is very small and villain can continue with his entire range profitably, that is the real problem here.

    On the flop he should be calling with his almost entire range on the paired board, so you have to decide what the purpose of the bet is and if you are going to double barrel.

    The small 3b resurfaces, naturally, as the problem on the river, when he can still have lots of hands we beat and now we have to cooler ourselves.
    point taken but at these 1-2 live tables normally you see 3 bets with QQ+, AQo+ ;
    against this range KTs plays very poorly even if you are getting a good price but good for him; be that as it may i guess $35 would have done the job better, valuable advice
    now back to my question: does this mean you also call the river shove?
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,085 ✭✭✭✭✭
    aaarrggh wrote:
    point taken but at these 1-2 live tables normally you see 3 bets with QQ+, AQo+ ;
    against this range KTs plays very poorly even if you are getting a good price but good for him; be that as it may i guess $35 would have done the job better, valuable advice
    now back to my question: does this mean you also call the river shove?

    That's my point though. Even if you had QQ, he could still call profitably with K10s, and just about everything else at that sizing that he would have opened. It's a bigger leak in your long term game than calling the river x/r, which is at least a tough spot.

    Yeah, I did answer, though. I have to call the river shove because I let all sorts of stuff into the hand that can be value raising. I did not double barrel, which AK would have done, and now other hands realize their equity on the river and my hand now looks underrepresented.

    The easy counterargument is that x/r on rivers are always the nuts at 1/2, so if you want to make an exploitative fold, go ahead, but my argument is that the whole hand fundamentally rests on the initial 3 bet so I think a call is forced as played, because we can easily make up a range of hands that you beat still.

    (Am I reading this all correctly? You are the CO, he is the HJ, despite what you write in some places? "CO who opens to 11..." then "CO checks, Hero..."?)
  • aaarrgghaaarrggh Red Chipper Posts: 85
    Yup sorry i guess i am a bit tired and wrote CO opens but it was HJ. I would normally double barrel all the time, yet with the way the hand went I was pretty sure he had a K, just didn't know about the T :) thanks for all the feedback
  • Steve007Steve007 Red Chipper Posts: 363 ✭✭✭
    I'm not sure this is a good 3-bet PF against a transparent villain who just showed strength and might be more sticky than usual because he is probably tilting. If I did 3-bet I would make it $35.

    I'm sure that I would call the river if I was playing this getting 3-1. But I'm thinking about his range some more and would villain raise PF, and then call the 3-bet AND the large flop bet with hands like :Qh :Jh , :Qh :9h , :Qh :8h , :Jh :9h , :Jh :8h , :9h :8h , :8h :7h , etc. after he thinks he missed the flop? Someone might call a normal c-bet light but I doubt they call in this spot with those hands. Sure villain calls often PF with those hands, but I'd expect many villains to quickly muck the flop when the bet is $40 and when hero looks strong to him. But then again pocket 2's are also likely to hit the muck on the flop. It really does look like he has KT or KK here, and maybe 66.

    We're hoping he got excited and shoved with a flush, overvalued trips or made a stupid bluff and it really looks like we're beat on the river but I'd probably vomit and call.

    If we're so sure he has at least a king, then I think I'd prefer a larger bet on the river especially if villain doesn't look like a nitty reg. It looks bluffy and many recreational players won't be able to get away from the hand when they have a king. And if we do get raised we'll have a much easier call. Maybe bet something like $180 and you can snap call if it gets raised. If villain looks like a passive older player who will fold a king when the flush draw gets there then I don't like this line nearly as much.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,085 ✭✭✭✭✭
    S007, I recognize that it's somewhat unlikely he floated with QJs and such (he can also have Kx and think it's the nuts given action), but in theory he should, and we opened the door to this right at the beginning. Even the flop bet, oversized for a 3 bet pot and now we never have a king, exposes us to floats and steals. What happens later is less valuable to think about after fundamental errors are made, in my opinion, and I thought this was a perfect hand to make that abstract concept very concrete. Maybe not. So fold away on the river, I might even do it myself, but it's all just guess work after we don't protect ourselves by taking suboptimal lines.
  • aaarrgghaaarrggh Red Chipper Posts: 85
    I got the message about the wrong sizing for the initial 3 bet and i can see the mistake and hire it impacts the rest of the hand but could you clarify what you mean when you say the flop bet was oversized for a 3 bet pot?
    @ S007 given the action and his demeanor i was pretty sure he had a K and he was certainly capable of calling the 3 bet with AK or KQ
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,085 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Basically ranges are stronger given more bets on the previous street, so cbets are already closer to polarizing no matter what their size, and therefore don't need to bloat the pot. The paired board heightens this effect.
  • theClubbertheClubber Red Chipper Posts: 167 ✭✭
    I just don't see anyone c/r bluff at 1/2 and rare to see non-nut flush overvalued on paired board

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