In cash games, should you be taking an +EV spots?

PescatarianPescatarian Red Chipper Posts: 83
edited January 2017 in General Concepts
So at the weekend I was sat on a dream table. A drunk guy with a few grand to burn was literally going all-in blind every single hand. Not only that but the other players were way too nitty (folding hands like 66, AT, KQ etc) and when he did get a caller he kept sucking out on them.

I got KK just after he sat down and doubled up to $700. Then a couple of hands later I got 44 which I estimated to be ~55% vs ATC (so obviously +EV) but chose to fold it. I figured I would rather wait for 66+, KJ+, A8+ and take slightly better spots against him. I was carrying 5 buy-ins and didn't want to lose it all in a few 55/45 flips when I could wait for some 65/35 and better.

Does this sound about right for this situation? Or should I be taking any spot with 51% or better like J8o? Is this a BR-driven decision?
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Comments

  • Morgan_BMorgan_B Red Chipper Posts: 262 ✭✭
    I'm sure it's bankroll driven. If you had an infinite bankroll you would take any +ev spot > 50%.

    Your post inspired me to check the equities vs. :atc1 :atc2 ...

    AA . . . . . . 85.2%
    KK . . . . . . 82.4%
    QQ . . . . . 79.9%
    JJ . . . . . . 77.5%
    TT . . . . . . 75.0%
    99 . . . . . . 72.1%
    88 . . . . . . 69.2%
    AKs . . . . . 67.0%
    77 . . . . . . 66.2%
    AQs . . . . . 66.2%
    AJs . . . . . 65.4%
    AK . . . . . . 65.3%
    ATs . . . . . 64.6%
    AQ . . . . . . 64.4%
    AJ . . . . . . 63.6%
    KQs . . . . . 63.4%
    66 . . . . . . 63.3%
    A9s . . . . . 62.8%
    AT . . . . . . 62.7%
    KJs . . . . . 62.6%
    A8s . . . . . 61.9%
    KTs . . . . . 61.8%
    KQ . . . . . . 61.5%
    A7s . . . . . 61.0%
    A9 . . . . . . 60.8%
    KJ . . . . . . 60.6%
    55 . . . . . . 60.3%
    QJs . . . . . 60.3%
    K9s . . . . . 60.0%
  • SaintsTigersSaintsTigers Red Chipper Posts: 238 ✭✭
    I'd probably fold :4? :4? simply because your flipping v. most of his range and you only dominate a small sliver of it. Moreover, given the rake, jackpot drop, and expected dealer tip, you may even be -EV here. Call me a nit, but since you only have 5 buy-ins available, I'd avoid anything less than 60% early in the night (preflop) and instead look to take higher EV spots. Your "risk of ruin" for the night, if you will, has worse consequences than usual since busting early leads to the opportunity cost of losing guaranteed loose action.

    That said, towards the end of the night, after having locked up a few pots against villain I'd be more inclined to take closer +ev spots, assuming he doesn't keep reloading to match my stack size.

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