MTT - 6 left button squeeze

FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
edited November 2015 in General Concepts
Payouts:
1st for $100
2nd for $20
3rd for $10

Blinds 1000/2000, my stack is at 25k(largest at 45k), there really isn't much maneuverability for any stack.

UTG - Conservative player that I have seen stay between 8-15 blinds for the last few levels(came to his table at 400/800). His double up that I recall was with :Js :5d, after I raised UTG with 4s at a 6 handed table. He called from MP, and LP went all in with 10s, and I (hindsight: incorrectly) called as did this villain. Villain won that pot with a flush.

CO - Regular that seems to make deep runs often enough. Never at her table early in the tournament, but final 2 tables, I'll usually see her. Doesn't seem to have a problem laying down a hands, and has done it several times this session, usually with something to the effect of 'I'm going to let it go this time', after what I would consider authentic deliberation.

SB - Another Reg that I see at the final few tables of these tournament often (he was talking with the guy running it how the last 2 weeks at this tournament, he busted 3rd with AA all in pre). I don't see him getting out of line, but definitely one to take advantage of opportunities and position

BB - Pogo stack player(45k). Out of the few times I've seen her, she is usually has a big stack, or is gone in a few hands. Calls light and donk bets, and other curious lines. Someone that I admittedly don't pay enough attention to frequencies or tells, but sporadic play makes me unsure she has a method to the madness.

Hero - Seen at both the last 2 tables playing loose. Dashing good looks. Never had to show down bottom of the range, showdown has been broadway or AX.

---
The hand:
SB posts 1k (about 25k, +/- 3 BBs)
BB posts 2k (45k)

UTG Limps (9k)
UTG+1 folds (18k)
CO Limps (16k)

pot @ 7k
But - Hero (25k) A10o

Here's my thoughts and the numbers running through my head. Assistance in where I am making the wrong assumptions or which numbers should be weighed more is much appreciated!

1) I can't be behind the ranges of UTG open limp, and the CO limp, right?
2) Although I know SS/BB can wake up with a hand they have to commit with, it felt like a point in the tourney where I can't be folding A10 to two limps. Let's say 4% of the time for SB, 6% for BB they wake up with a hand that calls or raises and crushes me. Is it right to somewhat disregard SB/BB since I don't expect them to come along often at all, and when they do, well... that's poker!
3) Where would you put A10o as a rip sitting with 12.5 big blinds with 6 players left on the button: Fold, Near the bottom, fine, can be done with less, or lolz just get your money in already.
4) If I can take out SB/BB from the equation, my squeeze is essentially 16k effective. My break even percentage would be 69.6%(risk/risk+reward). And for whatever reason, I'm having a hard time seeing how this plays in, or if it does. If I'm ahead of their range, I'm just suppose to rip it anyways, right?
5) The 7k in the middle is about 5% of the chip stack left in play, is it worth making a move for even with lesser holdings with UTG/CO's capped range? Is this a better place to play with risk/risk+reward or squeezing math calculator when I am holding cards that are behind their range?

Thanks for your thoughts and criticisms.

Comments

  • TheGameKatTheGameKat Posts: 2,010 -
    Easy shove. some tiny % of the time you'll get trapped by some buffoon open-limping AA/KK or run into a premium behind, but that 7k is a huge add to your stack.
    Moderation In Moderation

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