Top set - wet board, turn=?

MtipsterMtipster Red Chipper Posts: 131 ✭✭
OK, my first post on forum, as I became pro member few weeks ago.
I've really absorbed so much information since then, made bunch of notes. This one I actually played based on something I learned recently, unfortunately, I can't remember where I picked the idea, I tried to find particular video, but I couldn't.
Theory:
If holding a set and probable draw for villain hits on turn - 2 options:
If there is room for 2 bets (bet and villain raise) - bet call and cross your fingers for your 25% equity.
If there is more stack left, check call for implied odds.

Villain in a hand is completely unknown, had only 3 hands:

IPoker, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $5.02 (100.4 bb)
BB: $1.90 (38 bb)
UTG: $5.42 (108.4 bb)
MP: $4.43 (88.6 bb)
Hero (CO): $25.08 (501.6 bb)
BTN: $5.32 (106.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Qheart4.gif Qclub4.gif
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.45, 3 folds, MP calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.97) 9club4.gif Qspade4.gif 8diamond4.gif (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.48, MP calls $0.48

Turn: ($1.93) Tclub4.gif (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $1.93, MP raises to $3.50 and is all-in, Hero calls $1.57

River: ($8.93) Qdiamond4.gif (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $8.93 pot ($0.59 rake)
Final Board: 9club4.gif Qspade4.gif 8diamond4.gif Tclub4.gif Qdiamond4.gif
MP showed Jspade4.gif Aheart4.gif and lost (-$4.43 net)
Hero mucked Qheart4.gif Qclub4.gif and won $8.34 ($3.91 net)


Villain instant checked and called flop but took time before checking to me on turn, obviously he improved somehow, I immediately suspected he had a jack. I'd check it back, but recognized the situation and tried following the advice.

1. Did I get something wrong from the video? Does above advice apply when we have position or only when OOP? Is it better to check back IP?
2. If I played the turn correct, can someone explain me the math beneath it? We create situation where calling with only 25% equity is correct, it just feels wrong to me.

Comments

  • RamblinonRamblinon Red Chipper Posts: 26
    Using Equilab and giving V nothing but Jx in his range you have 24.2% Equity. Your break even point to call the all in is 17.6%. BE%= Risk /Risk+Reward
    Your risk is $1.57 to call his all in
    Reward is the Pot $7.36
    17.6%=($1.57/(1.57+$7.36)

    Hope that helps.



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