medium pair in 3 bet pot

aaarrgghaaarrggh Red Chipper Posts: 85
this is a fairly common spot i think i played wrong, help needed =)

888 Poker - $0.30 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hero (CO): 175.77 BB
BTN: 230.2 BB (VPIP: 24.72, PFR: 20.16, 3Bet Preflop: 7.74, Hands: 880)
SB: 141.53 BB (VPIP: 67.73, PFR: 25.10, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 253)
BB: 107.9 BB (VPIP: 32.67, PFR: 16.18, 3Bet Preflop: 3.74, Hands: 649)
UTG: 183.77 BB (VPIP: 17.37, PFR: 11.84, 3Bet Preflop: 2.94, Hands: 783)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has :8s:8h
fold, Hero raises to 2.87 BB, BTN raises to 10.1 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 7.23 BB

Flop : (21.7 BB, 2 players) :Qh:2d:6d
Hero checks, BTN bets 8 BB, Hero calls 8 BB

Turn : (37.7 BB, 2 players) :Ts
Hero checks, BTN bets 18.83 BB, fold

BTN wins 35.83 BB


i called the 3 bet preflop because we are deep enough to setmine, then on this flop i call one street getting better than 3,5:1 and planning to continue on low cards or reevaluate on broadways
this villain stats show aggression but he cbet less than 40% pot
Q1: am i turning my range face up when i check call this flop?
Q2: any merit in check raising?
Q3: possible range for him is AA-JJ,AKo,AKs-ATs,A5s-A2s,KQs-KTs,K4s-K2s agree?
after the Ts on the turn my hand still has 50% equity vs this range according to flopzilla but I folded to his 1/2 pot bet even though i have 3:1
Q4: looking back i hate this fold, looks like i threw away 25% equity, is my analysis correct?

Comments

  • JfdiwinsJfdiwins Red Chipper Posts: 52
    Hi,
    Reading your post you correctly stated that you had set mine odds as you are both very deep stacked so you called pre-flop to set mine. You didn't hit your set and now find yourself with a vulnerable hand which is way behind to some of his range and has little chance of improving and is likely to face further over cards on the turn or river. In addition to which it is difficult to work out if you are behind or slightly ahead.

    I would suggest that if you want to continue after missing your set then position in the hand is key. Your original plan to set mine was fine, the hand became difficult when you deviated from your original plan.

    Villain has a 7.7% three bet stats so he isn't overly loose. I would suggest that you look at the 3 bet by position as players vary - some 3 bet lots from the button others are weighted towards the blinds and only 3 bet premiums in other positions. I would include AQ/KQ/AJ off suit as being potentially in the range and possibly less suited Kings but this would be player specific. If you have a range of AJ+/KQ+/JJ+ and A2s-A5s that is also around 7.6%.

    As played I would fold the flop - I don't like any other lines without further information on the villain.
  • RamblinonRamblinon Red Chipper Posts: 26
    I agree, these are tough spots to try to set mine. Being OOP without the lead you need a miracle board to make any money here, like a QQ8 board with him holding AQ. Judging just on his stats the BTN doesn't seem like a player who is going to make too many mistakes so even if I hit I may not get paid. In spots like this I will usually just give him credit and fold preflop and try to get into a hand with the 62/25 or 33/16.

    The way you played it I think I would have done the same thing. Call the small bet on the flop and hope he gives up or you hit your 2 outer. If neither happens, I'm done. I have found that keeping it simple is the best approach at these stakes. Bet when you have it, fold when you don't.

    As far as check/raising the flop, if you make it 20 you need him to fold 40% to break even. Look at his range and see if you think he has enough folds to make it profitable. I would also want to consider what I would do if I get called.

    Sorry I can't help with your other questions, I just don't think I'm qualified. I play the same stakes you do.


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