Jacks in EP

eevee23eevee23 Red Chipper Posts: 42 ✭✭
This feels like a very simple, standard situation but it's got me confused.

$0.01 / $0.02 NL. Stacks are $2. Pretty standard game on Stars, I don't use a hud.

I open UTG+1 to $0.08 with :Jd:Jc.

One player folds, and the next raises to $0.24. It folds back to me.

What's the play here?

Food for thought: How does this change if you hold QQ? TT?

~~~

My thoughts:

First, I think flat calling is the worst option here. Calling gives an SPR of about 3.5, and puts me at the commitment threshold. If I hit an overpair (36%) or set (11%), I'm good. But the other 53% of the time, I think I have a very difficult hand to play out of position.

I think folding is reasonable. Jacks are good, but they aren't really a premium hand. If I know the Villain to be a nit, I'm definitely folding here.

I think any raise besides a shove runs into the same problem as a call. So let's look at shoving.

Maybe I'm wrong here, but I think a fairly tight 3-betting range looks something like {77+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AKo} - 73 hands. Let's say he calls a shove with any of the big four, {QQ+, AK} - 34 hands, where I have 36% equity.

Shoving costs $1.92. If my math is correct, my EV is (34/73)($0.35+$1.92) + (39/73)(0.36)($4.03) = $1.83. The fold equity calculator doesn't give EV, but it seems to agree with my math - it says I need 57% folds to break even, and I'm only getting folds 47% of the time.

I played with various ranges, and I wasn't able to get this to be a strong mathematical play until the villain had fairly ludicrous ranges.

So in summary, my conclusion is that this is a tough, but correct fold. I'd love to hear your thoughts!

I'm a big believer in outcome independence, but if you're curious, I shoved, and villain turned over the American Airlines. But then I sucked out with jacks on the turn and the river ;).

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Answers

  • The MuleThe Mule Red Chipper Posts: 787 ✭✭✭
    I think the 3 bet range you assign villain is way too wide. I play nl4 on 888, which I think is about the same standard, and without a read that someone 3 bets a lot I assume a range more like TT+, AQ+ or even tighter.

    3 bet ranges vary widely at those stakes and players spew off tons of information, so you should be looking to do better than using a default population range.

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