Zoom 50nl - Hero KK in BB vs a MP openers 5-bet

AshleyAshley Red Chipper Posts: 50
Not sure if a fold or all in is the correct move here. Villain is a 24/18(367hands) I know he has 3bet with 99+, and AK. Afq = 53, AF = 2.2. What do you guys think?

PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 178.3 BB (VPIP: 23.63, PFR: 18.54, 3Bet Preflop: 7.45, Hands: 2,178)
SB: 55.14 BB (VPIP: 17.56, PFR: 9.28, 3Bet Preflop: 3.32, Hands: 1,100)
Hero (BB): 101 BB
UTG: 228.24 BB (VPIP: 19.89, PFR: 14.49, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 357)
MP: 114.54 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 17.93, 3Bet Preflop: 4.11, Hands: 367)
CO: 85.34 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:spade: K:diamond:

fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, CO raises to 8 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 23 BB, MP raises to 44 BB, fold

Comments

  • JfdiwinsJfdiwins Red Chipper Posts: 52
    Hi,
    Horrible spot as the villain is representing exactly Aces. His bet size screams inducing a shove from weaker hands with Aces and most good regs would shove rather than 5 bet in this spot to disguise their hand strength.

    Would the villain 5 bet to 44 bb's pre-flop with anything other than aces? I play 20 and 50 nl speed poker on I poker and don't think I have ever seen a 44bb 5 bet from a reg. Villains shove KK/AA pre-flop with 3 and 4 bets to represent AK to disguise their hand strength. The 44 bb bet turns his hand face up in my opinion but I never fold KK pre-flop and if I run into aces its just a cooler.

    The key for you here is the plan for the hand. Once you 4 bet what is your plan? I would imagine when you 4 bet you were not planning on bet/folding? If you are considering folding in this spot then I would flat the 3 bet rather than raising.

    You do not have enough of a hand sample on the villain to be influenced by their stats here unless you have seen something out of the ordinary.
  • AshleyAshley Red Chipper Posts: 50
    You're right I didn't have a plan here mostly because I would usually shove my kings and 4 tabling I kind of rushed thru that hand. I only realized how strong his 5bet was after the fact especially when he snap 5bet. Thank you for your insightful response..lesson learned, slow down and plan the hand.
  • JfdiwinsJfdiwins Red Chipper Posts: 52
    There is a full thread on folding kk pre that may assist you, sorry I don't know how to link it.
    It is a really interesting hand as the villains bet size only reps aces.?
  • Rello242Rello242 Red Chipper Posts: 595 ✭✭
    Flatting a 3bet is just inviting a multi way pot, i don't think thats wise, but on the other hand, this 5bet is so weird, to be honest with you looking at it without doing the math i won't be suprised if you actually had enough equity to flat the 5bet even if you put him on AA alone with such pot odds, and maybe i will look at the math to confirm my belief but it sucks to get suckered in to flatting and folding alot of flops if you could. I also agree that the # of hands is just too small to be influenced and you said he snap 5bet, could that also be a sign of misclick? I mean i don't want to be optimistic here to make the already horror spot more horrible but how i see it, flatting to a multiway majority of the time, thats a no no, folding is a bigger no no and then raising is more ideal but then this..... I think this may be a spot where you might have to let variance take a ride for the worse because the math here is going to be insanely close and i will confirm it and come back and re-comment if its a lay down, which i doubt it will be mathematically wise.
    -Rello

    "Its better to give than to receive, so bet more and call less"
    Check out my HUSNG Graph: Chips-Results
    Follow All the Action On My Blog: www.rello242.blogspot.com
  • Rello242Rello242 Red Chipper Posts: 595 ✭✭
    edited December 2015
    So i did check it, you have to be good about 28% of the time to be break-even here. So if this spot is purely KK vs AA, where you only have 18% equity then this is a fold.
    -Rello

    "Its better to give than to receive, so bet more and call less"
    Check out my HUSNG Graph: Chips-Results
    Follow All the Action On My Blog: www.rello242.blogspot.com
  • AshleyAshley Red Chipper Posts: 50
    Thanks again. But then again, do I have enough hand to determine that he has only Aces. Should I still have shoved? I check Pokerstove and if he were to have AA and KK I have 22% equity or if he has AA and AKs now I have 30% equity. But would he be 5betting with those hands?
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You have two blockers to AK an d it would be very unusual for AK to size this way. I would think if there is any hand it is not, it's AK.

    This hand is KK or AA nearly all of the time.
  • Rello242Rello242 Red Chipper Posts: 595 ✭✭
    You never know so if you assumed he could have QQ+ you have more than enough equity to call that disgusting 5bet. If he is wider then you are looking pretty good. Thing is we never know, and can only assume. In this case, its probably not best to ride variance out because you never know if you are going to build up a decent database against these guys so I'll probably just assume your up against the worse and move on.

    (P.S. when i put in your exact hand KsKd i got a lower equity result vs all the possible combination vs AA)

    -Rello

    "Its better to give than to receive, so bet more and call less"
    Check out my HUSNG Graph: Chips-Results
    Follow All the Action On My Blog: www.rello242.blogspot.com
  • Rello242Rello242 Red Chipper Posts: 595 ✭✭
    Another thing is i say you have enough equity to call but i promise you, you don't want to be the one calling and then making a life or death decision on the flop
    -Rello

    "Its better to give than to receive, so bet more and call less"
    Check out my HUSNG Graph: Chips-Results
    Follow All the Action On My Blog: www.rello242.blogspot.com
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I would agree to throw in one combination of QQ in there, but it's not likely. Think about it from his perspective. Since your range is AK heavy when he has QQ and no blockers, he's allowing a beautiful price for the flop-- even queens don't want to do that.

    What's more probable: that a guy plays AA like this or he is making a sick level with AK+?

    And I'm not even saying it's wrong to go with KK, mind you, you'll be exploited, maybe, if you don't, but this is a bad, bad, spot.

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