Should hero fold 2 pair in limped pot?

OddAndyOddAndy Red Chipper Posts: 39 ✭✭
Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 98.6 BB
UTG: 309.36 BB (VPIP: 18.42, PFR: 13.09, 3Bet Preflop: 4.82, Hands: 4,727)
CO: 97.2 BB (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
BTN: 134 BB (VPIP: 20.55, PFR: 17.81, 3Bet Preflop: 10.34, Hands: 74)
SB: 123.36 BB (VPIP: 51.52, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 33)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 8:diamond: 4:spade:

fold, fold, fold, SB calls 0.6 BB, Hero checks

Flop: (2 BB, 2 players) 4:heart: 8:heart: 5:spade:
SB checks, Hero bets 1.28 BB, SB calls 1.28 BB

Turn: (4.56 BB, 2 players) Q:club:
SB checks, Hero bets 2.88 BB, SB raises to 5.76 BB, Hero calls 2.88 BB

River: (16.08 BB, 2 players) A:club:
SB bets 13 BB, Hero calls 13 BB

Hero shows 8:diamond: 4:spade: (Two Pair, Eights and Fours)
(Pre 55%, Flop 18%, Turn 9%)
SB shows 6:club: 7:heart: (Straight, Eight High)
(Pre 45%, Flop 82%, Turn 91%)
SB wins 40 BB

0.64 BB was deducted from the pot for the jackpot.


  • OddAndyOddAndy Red Chipper Posts: 39 ✭✭
    On the river my gut said "This is an OBVIOUS value bet."

    Question is, can I fold this and put him on 67 or 55.
  • Rello242Rello242 Red Chipper Posts: 595 ✭✭
    To me this depends on some key factors:
    *How wide are we assuming he limps here?
    *If he is taking passive lines such as limping then i am also assuming that he could slow play worse 2 pair hands, even though that would depend on his limping range.
    *Passive lines would probably mean that he never raises with just 1 pair or draws

    On the river, its a fold because to me its more than just 76 or 55 that he can have. By raising the turn, its less likely he has a flush draw and probably never has a 8x or a single pair of Q. He probably shows up with improved hands like Q8 or Q5s as well. However this assumption was made from the turn, so by putting him on these hands, i am more likely to fold turn rather than investing an extra 2.88BB. (Maybe the math could justify a call on the turn, i would have to double check but i am pretty sure i have really low equity, even with good odds i don't think i have enough equity to call)

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  • JfdiwinsJfdiwins Red Chipper Posts: 52
    +1 to what Rello says
    The sb shows 51% vpip so he limps a very wide range and can turn up with nearly any 2 cards.

    i would be more inclined to pot control the turn when the villain calls the flop. I hate to build a pot with a hand I wouldn't normally play and end up kicking myself for losing a chunk with 84 off. I would check back the turn then i have an easy river call in a much smaller pot.

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