2 pair on 4-to-a-straight board

The MuleThe Mule Red Chipper Posts: 790 ✭✭✭
Villain is in my opinion the strongest reg in my player pool, seems to be playing every table available and not getting fancy. He is positionally aware. I have him as 21/11 over 500 hands, but early position it's more like 10/10. 2.75x is his standard open and 50% is his standard c-bet size.

I raised the flop because I wanted to get money in early, in case a fourth straight card came. I was expecting a call from AT+, JJ and QQ. Obviously I'm behind TT, KK and AA. I don't think he's opening QJs from UTG.

On the turn I thought I could get more value out of worse two pair, but that might be ambitious. I don't think villain would turn a worse hand into a bluff.

I believe the turn fold was correct, my question is should I have checked the turn, or just called the flop and then called any reasonable sized second barrel on the turn. Interested in your thoughts.

Thanks.

Cassava Poker $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 2839563
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: $4.00
UTG+1: $7.73
UTG+2: $7.20
Hero (MP1): $4.15
MP2: $7.19
CO: $4.90
BTN: $2.03
SB: $4.08
BB: $4.00

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero is MP1 with K :heart: A :diamond:
UTG raises to $0.11, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.11, 5 folds

Flop: ($0.28) A :heart: K :spade: T :club: (2 players)
UTG bets $0.14, Hero raises to $0.40, UTG calls $0.26

Turn: ($1.08) Q :club: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.54, UTG raises to $3.49, Hero folds

Final Pot: $2.16
UTG wins $2.04
(Rake: $0.12)

Comments

  • chimerachimera Red Chipper Posts: 96 ✭✭
    I don't like the flop raise myself. Based on your estimate of 10/10 for his HUD stats I'd expect time to raise 77+ A9s+ AJo+ And some unpaired picture cards like KTs+ and KQo. By raising you're folding out the most one pair and under pair hands, worst aces and kings weak draws, forcing him to only continue with hands that either have you crushed or have very good equity against you. I prefer keeping his whole range in and giving him the chance to make mistakes.

    I'd flat the flop and be prepared to call most turns. Facing a big turn bet this board I'd fold.

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