Fold royal draw on turn to shove?
ZacShaw
Red Chipper Posts: 166 ✭✭✭
Three limpers in EP/MP, button (~$200) raises to $10, SB folds, Hero (covers) is in BB with 
and raises to $40. Limpers fold, button calls.
Villain is early 20s Asian kid who has been playing weak with lots of limp/call/folds. In the few pots he's won w/o showdown, he's bobbed his head, happy feet, shaking nervously... lots of tell behaviors. The only hand he showed down was an open-ender that rivered a straight, and he exhibited all those behaviors.
Flop
Hero bets $55, button calls.
Turn
With draws at a straight, boat and royal I feel like the math screams shove, but the kid is doing his little head dance already and looking down a lot at his chips. I check and he shoves, shaking almost uncontrollably. As I tanked he kept on shaking and bopping his head.
I fold and as he drags the pot he mumbles to the player next to him that he had queens.
Even on the button, I didn't get the sense he was making a play. He's been limping and calling so I didn't think he was raising with anything much worse than 10-10+ and AQ+, and with 2 aces I narrowed him down to a premium pocket pair. JJ and QQ seem the most likely given the action, maybe in a rare case he has AK ro A10 -- in all those cases I'm in bad shape.
What could he have that I'm in good shape against? AJ and AQ are rare given my aces. I just don't see what I'm beating here unless this is a bluff, and this guy doesn't seem like the type.
QQ makes perfect sense because he would do something like call the flop and shove the turn with it. Not to be too results oriented, but that's what he claimed to have.
Looking for some feedback on my play & thinking. Was this a insta-shove or was I right to proceed with caution? I want to pat myself on the back for not paying someone off, but I have this nagging feeling like I screwed up somewhere.
and raises to $40. Limpers fold, button calls.Villain is early 20s Asian kid who has been playing weak with lots of limp/call/folds. In the few pots he's won w/o showdown, he's bobbed his head, happy feet, shaking nervously... lots of tell behaviors. The only hand he showed down was an open-ender that rivered a straight, and he exhibited all those behaviors.
Flop
Hero bets $55, button calls.
Turn
With draws at a straight, boat and royal I feel like the math screams shove, but the kid is doing his little head dance already and looking down a lot at his chips. I check and he shoves, shaking almost uncontrollably. As I tanked he kept on shaking and bopping his head.
I fold and as he drags the pot he mumbles to the player next to him that he had queens.
Even on the button, I didn't get the sense he was making a play. He's been limping and calling so I didn't think he was raising with anything much worse than 10-10+ and AQ+, and with 2 aces I narrowed him down to a premium pocket pair. JJ and QQ seem the most likely given the action, maybe in a rare case he has AK ro A10 -- in all those cases I'm in bad shape.
What could he have that I'm in good shape against? AJ and AQ are rare given my aces. I just don't see what I'm beating here unless this is a bluff, and this guy doesn't seem like the type.
QQ makes perfect sense because he would do something like call the flop and shove the turn with it. Not to be too results oriented, but that's what he claimed to have.
Looking for some feedback on my play & thinking. Was this a insta-shove or was I right to proceed with caution? I want to pat myself on the back for not paying someone off, but I have this nagging feeling like I screwed up somewhere.
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So you bet out, which I sense is kind of an automatic 2/3 pot c-bet, but have you thought that all the way through? OK, well on the flop the SPR is already down to 2, so you don't really have any wiggle room. Are you committing to the hand or not? If you are, then I think you should consider just shoving right now. I mean, if he raises your c-bet, are you going to fold because you think he has a K? If so, you're probably better off check/folding on the flop. Or do you want to just play bluff catcher with AA?
Like I said, I just don't see any wiggle room in this hand. If he has Kx then yea for him. So basically you might want to just shove this flop no matter what you reraised with preflop, including KK and 22.
If he flipped over
I agree that in general, you need to build a plan preflop wrt to SPR - and with an SPR of 2 with aces, it's usually "commit on any flop". But it's totally fine to adjust your plan if you get new information.
Just be careful; there's a lot of hands worse than a boat worth getting excited about here. And shaking isn't the most reliable tell, depending on the player.
As an aside - in heads up situations like this, one guy I used to play with would always expose one or both of his hole cards, watching the villain's reaction, and basing his call/fold decision on that. It's a cute strategy but I feel like it might violate house rules at some casinos.
I had similar situation w
Actually, I think with Aces in 3bet, 100BB deep and SPR<=3 we just push the money in by the turn, regardless of opponent, read, board, etc.
Agreed in general, but unfortunately in this hand we're out of position, so that's difficult.
If you feel he's light (something like AQ) it's a shove on the flop. This is why I'd prefer to NOT have position in the hand. That way you put him to the decision. There's only three things he can have.....a draw.....a pair (fingers crossed).......or a K. If he has air, it's yours. Other wise there's 2-1 odds you would be favored in my mind. Granted you would be crushed if he was on the flush but you could rest knowing that you shoved while you were ahead on a big hand.
If he has the king then politely push your chips to him and buy back in with a smile. Rebuy and know you did the right thing. Just a bit of variance peeking up his ugly little head. Grind away my friend.....
If your cant do this then you're on TILT. Call it a session....take a walk.....get right or leave?
Too many times, if I'm in the wrong mindset, I'll rebuy and get a rush of little connecting cards or Q-10, Js9s, J-Q ect. Since I'm on tilt, I'm not thinking clearly. So I'll inevitably end up playing them badly, right? Flop a couple gut shots? or even openenders????...... And brick the river every time!!!!!! inevidably I'll find myself in an all in pot with the Villian that cracked my aces and he'll have me dominated (AK vs. AQ.....10-10 vs. QQ ect) Next thing you know your walking out of the card room stuck $400..... Still thinking about those AA.............and "how does he wake up with that hand!?!?!?!?!"
I don't mean to derail this thread with a "tilt" rant. But it comes full circle to the answer. The flop comes out......and its in your hands. Ask yourself what you want with these AA's? Your in the drivers seat!!! To lose $40?.... Then just grind it back? Or risk losing $200? Can you buy back in with a smile if you lose? Or will you Tilt? If you think you may go on tilt (like previous paragraph) then you should walk. So your playing for not only a possible -$200 but the end of your session.
How far are you in the session? If it's early, I'd maybe play conservatively and check/fold. If it's near the end of a long session, i'll maybe just want to make my stand. I'll walk with +$400 or -$200? And that was my day. Book it and move on.
I can see the argument for shoving the flop. This was about 40m into the session and I was planning on betting any flop and shoving most turns. With such a gnarly flop, he can only call a shove with Kx and I have most draws blocked.
Next time I will flash the A of spades and see if he still keeps doing the happy dance in his seat LOL
I think your read is spot on - I can't imagine a decent player who would raise to $10 with any sort of hand after multiple limpers. Therefore, the kid is not an experienced player, and probably isn't trying to bluff you in some way. I think your live read was fine, and given that you know he probably has you crushed on the turn, folding was best.
KskcJs9s im shoving cause kk likely to 4 bet, AK is discounted with us having two aces, qq and JJ both in his range so if you even think he has QQ on a kkj9 turn you should shove. Just a bad runout for you.
Other day i mucked top set on a qj9K board vs a small donk bet. Some times its not about the math..if you know they have it just fold.
I find pot odds gets us in high variance spots that should be avoided if we have a read. I also seen ivey muck 85s on 2h3s4s board. If he thought person had a set or higher flush draw he is only slightly ahead so its higher variance but they were playing for 100k as well. Ive done this myself with gut shot + flush draw but my hand would be like 4 or 5 ways where the donk bet gets 3 callers its very likely someone has higher flush draw. Some times im wrong and they all have top pair but either way better to avoid variance at times.
There are several points in favor of shoving, and even if it's not the best play, not having to make future decisions isn't the reason for it. And being "scared" of the flop isn't the reason.
Basically you've got an SPR of 2 here, so you have to be very careful of doing anything fancy. There's little room for "playing poker". If we shove, is that something someone with trip kings would do here? Not really, so in that sense shoving helps you get more calls if anything from some hands.
What this means is that you do not get paid for the absolute strength of your hand, you only get paid for the relative strength of your hand. Only in video poker do you get paid a ton for a straight flush. In real poker, a Royal Flush is not worth more money to draw to than the nut flush, for example, because you're not going to get paid more just because it's a stronger hand.
Going back to preflop, a side comment is that while some people recommend a larger raise preflop, I think a smaller raise in this case is fine. The reason is that normally we want to raise hands such as AK a larger amount to make up for our poor position postflop. However with a raise and reraise preflop, we're getting a reasonably low SPR anyway with a strong hand, and rather than seeking to get folds with this hand, I'm OK with raising to only about $30 and playing poker.
Is it unreasonable to narrow their range so much?
Such a weird spot where his range is totally defined unless this is a totally random move, but again, the board is as scary as it gets, this can't be a bluff setup unless they're super-sophisticated. His physical tells screamed that I was drawing to a flush, it was one of those situations where the tells absolutely mattered. If he was stone-faced it would have been a much more excruciating fold.
what is position worth in this spot?
what is your equity worth IP, or OOP, and if you fold before showdown?
this feels like a standard spot--- you should probably study the heck out of it
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