Fold royal draw on turn to shove?

ZacShawZacShaw Red Chipper Posts: 166 ✭✭✭
Three limpers in EP/MP, button (~$200) raises to $10, SB folds, Hero (covers) is in BB with :As:Ad and raises to $40. Limpers fold, button calls.

Villain is early 20s Asian kid who has been playing weak with lots of limp/call/folds. In the few pots he's won w/o showdown, he's bobbed his head, happy feet, shaking nervously... lots of tell behaviors. The only hand he showed down was an open-ender that rivered a straight, and he exhibited all those behaviors.

Flop
:Ks:Kc:Js

Hero bets $55, button calls.

Turn
:Qs

With draws at a straight, boat and royal I feel like the math screams shove, but the kid is doing his little head dance already and looking down a lot at his chips. I check and he shoves, shaking almost uncontrollably. As I tanked he kept on shaking and bopping his head.

I fold and as he drags the pot he mumbles to the player next to him that he had queens.

Even on the button, I didn't get the sense he was making a play. He's been limping and calling so I didn't think he was raising with anything much worse than 10-10+ and AQ+, and with 2 aces I narrowed him down to a premium pocket pair. JJ and QQ seem the most likely given the action, maybe in a rare case he has AK ro A10 -- in all those cases I'm in bad shape.

What could he have that I'm in good shape against? AJ and AQ are rare given my aces. I just don't see what I'm beating here unless this is a bluff, and this guy doesn't seem like the type.

QQ makes perfect sense because he would do something like call the flop and shove the turn with it. Not to be too results oriented, but that's what he claimed to have.

Looking for some feedback on my play & thinking. Was this a insta-shove or was I right to proceed with caution? I want to pat myself on the back for not paying someone off, but I have this nagging feeling like I screwed up somewhere.
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Comments

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 2016
    Well, I guess I would like to back up to the flop and ask what your plan is at this point in the hand. With this SPR, you need a plan right now.

    So you bet out, which I sense is kind of an automatic 2/3 pot c-bet, but have you thought that all the way through? OK, well on the flop the SPR is already down to 2, so you don't really have any wiggle room. Are you committing to the hand or not? If you are, then I think you should consider just shoving right now. I mean, if he raises your c-bet, are you going to fold because you think he has a K? If so, you're probably better off check/folding on the flop. Or do you want to just play bluff catcher with AA?

    Like I said, I just don't see any wiggle room in this hand. If he has Kx then yea for him. So basically you might want to just shove this flop no matter what you reraised with preflop, including KK and 22.
  • eevee23eevee23 Red Chipper Posts: 42 ✭✭
    I agree with the fold.

    If he flipped over :Ts:9s (during the hand), would you call even a $1 bet?

    I agree that in general, you need to build a plan preflop wrt to SPR - and with an SPR of 2 with aces, it's usually "commit on any flop". But it's totally fine to adjust your plan if you get new information.

    Just be careful; there's a lot of hands worse than a boat worth getting excited about here. And shaking isn't the most reliable tell, depending on the player.

    As an aside - in heads up situations like this, one guy I used to play with would always expose one or both of his hole cards, watching the villain's reaction, and basing his call/fold decision on that. It's a cute strategy but I feel like it might violate house rules at some casinos.
  • DanieleDeRossiDanieleDeRossi Red Chipper Posts: 26 ✭✭
    edited January 2016
    :As:Ad on :Ks:Kc:Js:Qs vs TT+/AQ+ we are 55/45 ahead, with 105 behind in 190 pot...shove everyday allday

    I had similar situation w :As:Ad on :4s:5s:8d:9s with 117 behind in 200 pot, I was sure I'm behind, but I would JAM 10 out of 10 times.

    Actually, I think with Aces in 3bet, 100BB deep and SPR<=3 we just push the money in by the turn, regardless of opponent, read, board, etc.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    eevee23 wrote: »
    I agree that in general, you need to build a plan preflop wrt to SPR - and with an SPR of 2 with aces, it's usually "commit on any flop". But it's totally fine to adjust your plan if you get new information.

    Agreed in general, but unfortunately in this hand we're out of position, so that's difficult.

  • BenLeewoodBenLeewood Red Chipper Posts: 285 ✭✭
    This is a polarized decision given your position in the hand. It's more tricky if you have position in my opinion. If you feel he's strong check/fold. If you had $200 then your down almost 1/4 your stack. It's not easy, but a seasoned player will know that he can find a better place to put the other $160 towards.
    If you feel he's light (something like AQ) it's a shove on the flop. This is why I'd prefer to NOT have position in the hand. That way you put him to the decision. There's only three things he can have.....a draw.....a pair (fingers crossed).......or a K. If he has air, it's yours. Other wise there's 2-1 odds you would be favored in my mind. Granted you would be crushed if he was on the flush but you could rest knowing that you shoved while you were ahead on a big hand.

    If he has the king then politely push your chips to him and buy back in with a smile. Rebuy and know you did the right thing. Just a bit of variance peeking up his ugly little head. Grind away my friend.....

    If your cant do this then you're on TILT. Call it a session....take a walk.....get right or leave?

    Too many times, if I'm in the wrong mindset, I'll rebuy and get a rush of little connecting cards or Q-10, Js9s, J-Q ect. Since I'm on tilt, I'm not thinking clearly. So I'll inevitably end up playing them badly, right? Flop a couple gut shots? or even openenders????...... And brick the river every time!!!!!! inevidably I'll find myself in an all in pot with the Villian that cracked my aces and he'll have me dominated (AK vs. AQ.....10-10 vs. QQ ect) Next thing you know your walking out of the card room stuck $400..... Still thinking about those AA.............and "how does he wake up with that hand!?!?!?!?!"

    I don't mean to derail this thread with a "tilt" rant. But it comes full circle to the answer. The flop comes out......and its in your hands. Ask yourself what you want with these AA's? Your in the drivers seat!!! To lose $40?.... Then just grind it back? Or risk losing $200? Can you buy back in with a smile if you lose? Or will you Tilt? If you think you may go on tilt (like previous paragraph) then you should walk. So your playing for not only a possible -$200 but the end of your session.

    How far are you in the session? If it's early, I'd maybe play conservatively and check/fold. If it's near the end of a long session, i'll maybe just want to make my stand. I'll walk with +$400 or -$200? And that was my day. Book it and move on.
  • ZacShawZacShaw Red Chipper Posts: 166 ✭✭✭
    Thanks for the advice, folks -- especially in regards to SPR.

    I can see the argument for shoving the flop. This was about 40m into the session and I was planning on betting any flop and shoving most turns. With such a gnarly flop, he can only call a shove with Kx and I have most draws blocked.

    Next time I will flash the A of spades and see if he still keeps doing the happy dance in his seat LOL
  • JesseJesse Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    I think your 3-bet could have been a bit larger.

    I think your read is spot on - I can't imagine a decent player who would raise to $10 with any sort of hand after multiple limpers. Therefore, the kid is not an experienced player, and probably isn't trying to bluff you in some way. I think your live read was fine, and given that you know he probably has you crushed on the turn, folding was best.
  • ImperatorImperator Red Chipper Posts: 899 ✭✭✭
    Interesting thread. I think I would have been just as worried and regretful afterward as Zac was. What is good about this thread for those of us at Zac's level and below (I'm not presuming I'm at his level) is that it reveals our fears and desires and where we need to get rid of both and try to look at matters straight on, without squinting. Thank you Zac for sharing.
  • Ranceg29Ranceg29 Red Chipper Posts: 145 ✭✭
    I disagree with the advice of shoving the flop. Maybe its an ok move on a low flop in which you get action from his overpairs but to shove just because its a scary flop given our hand and we dont want to make future decisions goes against a lot of what the coaches on this site have been teaching. Shoving MAY or may not only get called by worse but I think the meter is closer to MAY. If we want to get stacks in why not come up with a line to try to induce a raise, that way it keeps his draws and bluffs and overvalued QQ's of the world in his range.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think hero fold is in order despite our pot odds. We are crushed vs his 3 betting range once you discount a lot of AK and AQ combos. Not many flush combos he can have here either. Very unlikely he is floating and shoving TT. Just really bad flop texture and I like your cbet size and giving up on the turn. Any none broadway spade though i am shoving or at least check calling.

    KskcJs9s im shoving cause kk likely to 4 bet, AK is discounted with us having two aces, qq and JJ both in his range so if you even think he has QQ on a kkj9 turn you should shove. Just a bad runout for you.

    Other day i mucked top set on a qj9K board vs a small donk bet. Some times its not about the math..if you know they have it just fold.

    I find pot odds gets us in high variance spots that should be avoided if we have a read. I also seen ivey muck 85s on 2h3s4s board. If he thought person had a set or higher flush draw he is only slightly ahead so its higher variance but they were playing for 100k as well. Ive done this myself with gut shot + flush draw but my hand would be like 4 or 5 ways where the donk bet gets 3 callers its very likely someone has higher flush draw. Some times im wrong and they all have top pair but either way better to avoid variance at times.
  • bill_sabrebill_sabre Red Chipper Posts: 9 ✭✭
    edited March 2016
    The way I look at it, you did the right thing. Its not terribly popular, but the c-bet on the flop asked a question and his call answered it. Taking into account his probable open raise range from the button, then narrowing it his call a 3-bet range, then taking into account his calling your c-bet on a flop like that, there's literally nothing you're likely to beat once that Qs hits. Now your AA is a bluff catcher with a slim chance to make a nuttish hand. Bottom line to me is this; AA is a beautiful pair. But its still only a pair. Fold it away, congratulate him on his nice hand, and get his money later in a better spot.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ranceg29 wrote: »
    I disagree with the advice of shoving the flop. Maybe its an ok move on a low flop in which you get action from his overpairs but to shove just because its a scary flop given our hand and we dont want to make future decisions goes against a lot of what the coaches on this site have been teaching.

    There are several points in favor of shoving, and even if it's not the best play, not having to make future decisions isn't the reason for it. And being "scared" of the flop isn't the reason.

    Basically you've got an SPR of 2 here, so you have to be very careful of doing anything fancy. There's little room for "playing poker". If we shove, is that something someone with trip kings would do here? Not really, so in that sense shoving helps you get more calls if anything from some hands.

  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Revisiting this thread due to the link from Zac's monthly series. In article 2, you mention folding a Royal Flush draw. I find that comment interesting. In fact, I hear comments related to straight flush draws all the time. Kudos to you for not calling simply due to the strength of hand you might hit. I refer to this tendency as Video Poker Syndrome.

    What this means is that you do not get paid for the absolute strength of your hand, you only get paid for the relative strength of your hand. Only in video poker do you get paid a ton for a straight flush. In real poker, a Royal Flush is not worth more money to draw to than the nut flush, for example, because you're not going to get paid more just because it's a stronger hand.

    Going back to preflop, a side comment is that while some people recommend a larger raise preflop, I think a smaller raise in this case is fine. The reason is that normally we want to raise hands such as AK a larger amount to make up for our poor position postflop. However with a raise and reraise preflop, we're getting a reasonably low SPR anyway with a strong hand, and rather than seeking to get folds with this hand, I'm OK with raising to only about $30 and playing poker.
  • bmaddenbmadden Red Chipper Posts: 35 ✭✭
    With 3 limpers and only one raise to 10 obviously 3 betting is mandatory. With the stack sizes and me holding aces I think a low SPR pot is a great outcome going to the flop. Even assuming this player considers your range as well as his own cards and what cards you think he has (which is rare at 1/2), I agree with shoving this flop. I haven't plugged in the number to the fold equity calculator (too lazy lol) but instinctively with a pot size of about 90 with 160 behind I just cant see another bet size on the flop that makes sense thinking ahead to the turn. If you have a solid read on this guy (hard when you don't play with him often) you could try bet folding the flop but this leads to an even more complicated decision on the turn if he flats. While you probably wont get called by worse very often (a very skeptical player may call with AJ, J 10, QJ or a flush or str8 draw if they have a loose 3 bet calling range?) you will probably get folds from a large part of his range often enough to make up for the rare times that you get beat. On this flop IMHO shoving does have an edge if not a huge one because I think you need the fold equity on the flop to tweak this spot into the +EV column. These spots are a perfect example of why optimal play does require one to not be too bankroll sensitive and to have a barf bag at the ready when you keep hitting the top of the villians range lol. Ive been on one of those rolls lately unfortunately but I just get up, throw the bag away and keep playing. My best guess without the calculator is over 100 trials its profitable but not by a fat margin unless this player is very loose and skeptical. For his range purposes I'm eliminating KK based on the preflop action. QQ (which I think he folds often) and JJ basically cancel each other out. 99+, AQ+. I'm not including KQ or KJ but will concede about maybe a 20 percent weight if forced too. lol. Don't forget 10s plus the other two aces do give you about 7 percent suckout factor against the top of his range too.
  • moishetreatsmoishetreats Red Chipper Posts: 1,819 ✭✭✭✭
    Thinking out loud: what do you suppose that V would do if you checked the flop? Might that be the better play?
  • ZacShawZacShaw Red Chipper Posts: 166 ✭✭✭
    Yeah, I mean, if I check the flop it probably goes check-check and then I have to bet turn, Villain raises and I call/hate it, maaaaybe I check turn and call a bet and see a river... but what are they calling with pre and on the flop? Only a few flush draws worse than mine, if any, and their hand screams AK, KQ, QQ or JJ. And with two K's on the board and two A's in my hand, QQ or JJ is pretty much what they're showing up with when they call flop. His call on the flop is an "I don't believe you necessarily have the K, there's two out there and sometimes I'm holding it."

    Is it unreasonable to narrow their range so much?

    Such a weird spot where his range is totally defined unless this is a totally random move, but again, the board is as scary as it gets, this can't be a bluff setup unless they're super-sophisticated. His physical tells screamed that I was drawing to a flush, it was one of those situations where the tells absolutely mattered. If he was stone-faced it would have been a much more excruciating fold.
  • YoshYosh Red Chipper Posts: 580 ✭✭✭
    AA celebrating its 1 year wedding anniversary!
  • WhichWhich Red Chipper Posts: 114 ✭✭
    what is AA in relative hand strength value on this flop?

    what is position worth in this spot?

    what is your equity worth IP, or OOP, and if you fold before showdown?

    this feels like a standard spot--- you should probably study the heck out of it

    which
  • WhichWhich Red Chipper Posts: 114 ✭✭
    well--- standard except for your 'stone-cold' reads

    which

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