Doug's Constructing Ranges 5

NotamNotam Red Chipper Posts: 53
At 15:35 of this really outstanding and interesting video, when discussing if his river value bet was a good one, Doug said if you are ahead 50% or more of a Villain's range, it's a good value bet.

I don't want to split hairs here, but I think the concept is that it's a good value bet if you are ahead 50% or more when called. If a Villain's range at the time you get to the river has more losers than winners, it doesn't necessarily mean a value bet is good. It's not good if the Villain only calls with winning hands or even mostly (>50%) winning hands.

In the example in question, you need to believe that this particular weak Villain will call all three streets with top pair-type hands or worse (losers), as they will more than offset the very few hands that contain a 3 (a winner with trips) or better.

Noting Doug's read on this Villain via comment throughout the video, I do think the value bet is good because Villain's range should include top pairs. That said, I think the careful distinction between "value bet if his range has over 50% losers" and "value bet if his range when called has over 50% losers" is important.

I loved Doug's video. This hand others have inspired me to do a lot more range analysis away from the table. Tedious at times as it is, the insights are incredible.

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