NL5 6max - BTN AKs vs defend (Turn shove gone sour)

NikosNikos Red Chipper Posts: 117
edited January 2016 in Online Poker Hands
Hey RCP ppl!

I'll start the year (i start late lol) with a hand and a resolution to get involved in this forum.. Love to see what you guys have to say..:

Background: I've played a lot of 6max 5NL on stars, villain is unknown to me and i have only 26 hands on him. No indication that this person is good/bad, and has not gone to SD yet, but with this little info i cannot know i think. side note, this is sunday evening so plenty unknowns in there.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $8.74
SB: $5.09 (VPIP: 29.17, PFR: 20.83, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 26)
BB: $5.91 (VPIP: 18.64, PFR: 13.10, 3Bet Preflop: 2.80, Hands: 403)
UTG: $5.00 (VPIP: 28.92, PFR: 18.07, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 85)
MP: $6.27 (VPIP: 12.00, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
CO: $5.00 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 29.17, 3Bet Preflop: 22.22, Hands: 26)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has K :club A :club

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.15, SB calls $0.13, fold

Flop: ($0.35, 2 players) Q :club 5 :diamond 8 :diamond
SB checks, Hero bets $0.22, SB raises to $0.69, Hero calls $0.47

Turn: ($1.73, 2 players) 7 :club
SB bets $1.49, Hero raises to $7.90 and is all-in, SB calls $2.76 and is all-in

River: ($10.23, 2 players) 2 :heart

SB shows 8 :heart 8 :club (Three of a Kind, Eights)
(Pre 53%, Flop 96%, Turn 84%)
Hero shows K :club A :club (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 47%, Flop 4%, Turn 16%)
SB wins $9.81



So my thoughts,

AK is sometimes tough, but i normally do not face too many probs playing it. In this instance i was maybe on the verge of slight tilt, not too much though; usually when this happens i tend to overplay slightly maybe get a little too aggro as is the case here - although i might easily have played this the same way sometimes anyway! My plan when calling the flop was to see if i could get an equity boost on the turn and reevaluate (know that's not really good but hey - i'm trying!!). I must say i'd hate life if I spiked TPTK ott and have him lead into me the same way he did. More often than not i'd fold the missed AK after a flop raise, but his was rather small and encouraged me to go ahead wishing he had enough draws in his range (and maybe slow down ott) and a backdoor one for myself.

I'd like your opinion on how often you'd fold flop (after raise) or turn vs unknowns. And of course what you guys think of the shove. I've tried to justify the shove later reviewing the hand.. it seems this cannot be +EV by any stretch, even if i widen V's flop-raising and barrelling range with draws and even top pair hands.. If i'm correct my shove would be ok if he folded ~50% (or 40 at absolute best?) of his range and i cant see that will likely be the case. Am i right this semi-bluff is break-even at best? even outright bad..

I'd be great if you could let me know what you think. I have doubts this line should be in my list in the first place..

thanks & happy new year!

Comments

  • PierrickPierrick Red Chipper Posts: 13
    Hello,
    I think you should not show the final result of the hand. We do not want to be result-oriented.
    The 1st thing that attracts my attention is that he did not 3 bet in the SB. I will not put him on a big hand, but small pocket pairs most of the time. We may also think that he is not a particularly good player because he flat calls in the SB.
    In this particular hand, he is passive preflop and aggro post flop. Why? Usually, this is not a good sign.
    I think you did good calling the c/r because 1/ the flop is dry and he does not represent much 3/ you have some equity (2 overcards+BDFD) 3/ you are on the BTN and he will try to push you off your wide range.
    But i do not like his full size bet on the turn. He keeps being agro and strong. He could have a set at this stage, I will not put him on AQ-KQ since this kind of players usually 3bet high card value hands. Sure, if he is the agro type, he could keep the aggression….but a c/r+a full pot bet is not that good….
    I do not like this kind of situation on the turn where you do not have much choice than calling and be Villain’s bitch. So I will take my decision here on the turn to fold or to call based on my read/Villain’s profile. I don’t really know here. Maybe 50/50. But the shove is not good.

  • NikosNikos Red Chipper Posts: 117
    thanks for you input Pierrick!

    i am not sure here but the turn call you mention seems to me the worst option. i mean, if you dont think his strong turn cbet range doesn't include draws/top pair hands then why call given you dont get close to good pot odds? unless you think you can blow him off on the river which is not in line with him being really strong ott..

    imo, and this is super player-specific (i for one go for flop x/r and turn aggression w/ big bets in such spots quite often with draws), it is possible for him to have stuff in his range the shove can get him to fold. i just can't see this being too +EV to bother if +EV at all.

    the more i think of this, i guess my choice would have to be fold like 90% of the time..

    thanx again!
  • PierrickPierrick Red Chipper Posts: 13
    let's say I call on the turn and since I do not put Villain on a draw, I might shove on all diamond/spade cards.
    But that deep and in NL5, I am not sure he fold a set anyways.
    So I do agree with your conclusion. :)
  • Rello242Rello242 Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 595 ✭✭
    Interesting hand here...

    Let me be the first one to say that I do not like calling as the best option here.
    Your in a situation majority of the time where if the turn had bricked, your getting pushed off your hand a lot. Calling to pick up equity to do this, is probably a worse plan than calling to fold IMO, but only slightly.

    So here is a reasonable thought, when he raise he either has a lot of value on the flop, a lot of bluffs on the flop or pretty balanced. In all 3 scenarios where does calling play better than raising or folding?

    It's hard to put unknowns on active ranges, that's for sure so it's probably best to make an assumption based on your player field average tendency. Whatever you assume here, that would be up to you but if he has a lot of bluffs, our hand is not that good of a bluff catcher facing future streets. Here we would like to re-raise and fold out his equity if possible. So if he ever has any 76 hand or 2 diamonds in this range then we can apply maximum pressure by re-raising the flop and depending on villain's nature, we can still shove a lot of turns on cards like :7c

    A more balanced range I would still re-raise the flop with the intentions of giving up or checking back turns to try improve, but more importantly to CAP his range to something more reasonable. Most of the time though, I would expect either shoves or folds since most of his value range consist of sets and two pair that doesn't want to see a next card and bluffs that doesn't want to commit another chip in there.

    If he think he has reasonably strong hands in his range, then it's okay to just let it go.

    I have to address a statement: "Calling to re-evaluate" is probably something used more as an excuse than what it is really intended for. Honestly I could understand a situation like, he never raises top pair or sets here based on previous actions and reads so calling to re-evaluate would seem much more appropriate here, but on a readless villain where your best excuse is "its a dry flop" sounds more like an excuse over reasoning for continuing.
    -Rello

    "Its better to give than to receive, so bet more and call less"
    Check out my HUSNG Graph: Chips-Results
    Follow All the Action On My Blog: www.rello242.blogspot.com
  • NikosNikos Red Chipper Posts: 117
    edited January 2016
    Ok.. many thanks for the replay @Rello242! I guess i come across a bit too light-headed there but i certainly try not to be. Note, I (almost :P) never call such spots without keeping an eye out for a steal later.

    I like your proposition for the flop re-raise as an alternative. Alas, I'm not really sure how that would be much more profitable in this spot. I mean, a flop reraise would not be sure to fold out any of his draws (if indeed he has any). As a matter of fact, we might have ended-up facing HIS coming over the top shoving stuff like Axd.. (And with that in mind i can't see the turn c-bet shove you suggest to be much different to what actually happened) Whereas hero's turn shove puts V to the spot with his draws.. Not at all sure about this though..

    I run up an EV calculation on the turn shove assuming Vs turn barreling range as:
    {QQ,88,55,AQs,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad4d,Ad3d,Ad2d,KQs,76s,AQo,KQo} and his stack-off range of {QQ,88,55,AQs,KQs,7d6d,KQo}. This are by no means precise, suggestions welcome!

    If i've done this right i get +0.64 for the shove. Which is not only optimistic (i gave him many draws for the raise-barrel) but also quite thin for a play with stacks going in. So, I have to say I'm not a fan of my play. Or the flop re-raise scenario for that matter..

    But if this is the case.. should I fold AKs to any random flop 3b by the bb?? I hate the idea.. And this is why i'm indeed looking for reasons and a better way to continue with the hand. Not really because I get sticky a lot, or dry flops or whatever.

    Thanks again!
  • Rello242Rello242 Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 595 ✭✭
    This is how you solve a lot of your problems once you start looking at it in such a manner. Truth be told, not many players would have a balance range here so you need to determine just how much of his value combos you think you will be facing in this range vs his bluff combos.

    If you are facing a situation where villain will be overplaying bluffs to the very hand then this more of a reason why we can't be calling with AK here, but more of a reason to expand our calling range to Qx or even hands like JJ & TT. These are our bluff catchers, and trying to take a line to bluff someone who is willing to go all the way with their draws like how you mention, is not a good idea.

    I did say re-raising plays slightly better right? Let me explain.

    Without knowing his hole cards and thinking about future cards to come before the :7c think about how would you play this spot on those other cards?
    With the lead, you can exercise the options to check back turns or shove the rest of the chips. Both giving you better options than having to face a next bet on the turn and possibly folding your hand. Slightly better, not to exciting though.

    I don't know the dynamics to tell you exactly how villain might play but with those dynamics you described, think about how to take advantage of that style from a long term and solid strategy and always think about your range (Don't overthink but remind yourself) before you think about your hand and then proceed with a plan that plays in the best interest of your range.
    -Rello

    "Its better to give than to receive, so bet more and call less"
    Check out my HUSNG Graph: Chips-Results
    Follow All the Action On My Blog: www.rello242.blogspot.com
  • Rello242Rello242 Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 595 ✭✭
    P.S. As much as I would try to stay away from making comments on players assumption, I can't help but to talk about villain raising Qx here. Is this something you see normally in your stakes? What reason would villain or anybody at these stakes have for raising Qx here?
    -Rello

    "Its better to give than to receive, so bet more and call less"
    Check out my HUSNG Graph: Chips-Results
    Follow All the Action On My Blog: www.rello242.blogspot.com
  • NikosNikos Red Chipper Posts: 117
    hey @Rello242! thanx for expanding on your idea.. The vast majority of the time for a micros reg i think this flop raise would be a value-weighted mix of sets and semi-blufs. No air in there at all. In some cases people do re-raise with top pair for "protection" vs draws as they see it, even going as far as 2nd pair (pocket JJ, TT) or smth. But in principle i think the raising is more or less value-oriented hence my play is pretty bad.

    To answer your question, i guess it's debatable whether you may have top-pairs in the raising range, however i did keep some of that in the stacking-off range as well so it shouldn't make that much of a diff to the EV calc i guess. Also, i didn't include the entire preflop Qx range in the flop raising range, just the AQ, KQ bit. I guess they might as well not be there..

    thanks!
  • Rello242Rello242 Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 595 ✭✭
    As long as you have a reason for putting Qx in there then it's fine. Talking from experience, I remember plenty time I would just add Top pair combos in villain ranges for spots like this in cash games, which was wrong when I use to play because the average player just don't raise top pair enough.

    Pair combos make up alot of combos so it makes plenty different in your decision making so beware of how your handling pair combos in your assumptions.
    -Rello

    "Its better to give than to receive, so bet more and call less"
    Check out my HUSNG Graph: Chips-Results
    Follow All the Action On My Blog: www.rello242.blogspot.com
  • PierrickPierrick Red Chipper Posts: 13
    Poker Snowie suggests to fold on the flop directly, raising the c/r being the worst option of all.
    If you decide to call instead, Poker Snowie suggests to call the bet on the turn with your flush draw.
    On the river, you would fold to any of his all-in bet if missed but you would shove on all diamonds/clubs if Villains checks.

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