Tripple barrel bluff part 3

Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 559 ✭✭✭
edited January 2016 in Live Poker Hands
I have 1500 at a 2/5, 8 handed game and pick up :Ad :Qs UTG. I have been pretty aggro thus far. I open to 35 and only the button calls. Earlier i stacked him set over set. He is loose preflop and has 1k.

Pot is 75. Flop comes :Jh :7h :2s.

This is a good board for me. I block some Jx in his range, there are no 2p combos, and there are not many straight draws. My perceived runouts all give me equity and i give up no equity if he raises and i fold.

I bet 40 and he snap calls.

Pot is 155. Turn is a :3d

This card changes nothing. Hes not folding anything but pure garbage or naked AhX. I dont have a bluffcatcher so if i check back i have my 6 outer for his likely river bet. If i bet i am still uncapped and can bet on a k or non heart.

I bet 80 and he snap calls.

Pot is 315. :2c

I bet 200.

Questions:

Does he fold 55,66,88,99,TT?
What does the snap call mean? I thought it might be a heart draw or weak hand trying to slow my aggro ass down.

If he only folds missed flushes a $90 bet breaks even. I wouldnt bet 90 with value here though.

Comments

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,618 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 3,930 -
    I would never assume a missed flush is folding to a turn bet (esp of just $80).

    But backing up...why do you assume the flop is so good for you? You're OOP on a board where he's going to continue a TON of the time...
    My new book lays out the playbook for AK. Grab your copy and start Optimizing Ace King!
  • Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 559 ✭✭✭
    My mistake. River is 2s

    I agree he never folds a flush draw.

    I think my bet sizing is weak on flop and turn. I still posted the hand as played.

    I opened utg. A lot of my range wants to bet this flop for value.

    Sure hes continuing with middle pairs but what part of his flop calling range can hold on for 3 streets if the flush bricks. At the time the only hands were Jx+.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,618 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thin but good, I would bet bigger, too, especially on turn and river. Combined with the AT hand I think more importantly you overestimate how good these boards are for you. They don't hit your range very hard and force you to three barrel a lot. Nice hand.
  • Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 559 ✭✭✭
    For the sake of discussion what if the flop was j72 rainbow? would you consider that a good board for an utg open v button call? After analysis and discussion i agree that j95 does not favor the raiser as much but j72 has significantly fewer draws and virtually zero 2 p combos all suits being equal. I would consider a (q,k, or a)72 board to greatly favor the raiser so a j72 board, while not as good as the q,k, or a, would favor the raiser over the caller.

    Thanks for taking interest in me shelling off!
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,618 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Always interested in the shelling, and overall I think you are right to fire. I don't want to overstate it, because that would be wrong, and I probably shouldn't have said anything at all, but I'm just pointing out that it is a little thinner than you seem to imply at the start of your posts. Christian summarized the other one very well: neutral range advantage on something closer to J74r or whatever it was, and this one is again close because of the two suit and the clustering around middling cards. For other players, I might think this is a better spot: your likely reputation feeds into your problem, so as the board runs out you will get peeled from suspicious players, and be up against more made draws, two pairs on the turn and river, and hero calls, the more the caller will take one off initially. J72 rainbow gets 6% less peels on the flop, according to Doug's barrelling chart, which uses some very reasonable assumptions, and your villain in that situation will have less hands that can continue on the turn.

    Here, this run out is good for you, so once you start you've got to finish it, and it's tough because although you definitely have some showdown value, you are OOP yet can't check call much as a strategy. I can't help but think you had to hit the turn hard and end up betting more than $200 on the river to really maximize your chances. You might want to start upping the sizing of your value bets to allow for bigger river bombs.
  • zagaresezagarese Red Chipper Posts: 185
    I often read statements about the opener's range and the caller's range - but it's never really clear how anyone has come to a conclusion about what those ranges are.

    In this specific case I'd be interested in seeing what range any of the commentators and the OP actually assign to the players. After which I'll have more questions :)




  • Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 559 ✭✭✭
    Never seen dougs chart- is this in his book?

    I went back and looked at the last post. The flop was Jc9s5d, which, all other variables being equal, is better for a caller than j72.

    I agree its not a slam dunk spot. Posting those is a waste :)

    When i cb here its clearly runout based. I never double barrel a T,9,8,7,6.

    Im interested in why you think i have showdown value. Your comment about my position is exactly what i was thinking. But even if i have position, When i looked at ranges only about a third of hands were draws, another third were bad pairs, and the final third were jx+ (these are approx values i dont have my notes on me).

    Zag-open equilab, plug in what you open utg and what you call on the button with on this flop and eval equities.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,618 ✭✭✭✭✭
    it's featured in his third latest video.

    I don't think it's any mystery as to why you have some showdown value- you encouraged naked flush draws to continue on the turn laying about 3:1. But it just doesn't matter much, especially when you can get two thirds of his range to fold and make a profitable river bluff.
  • zagaresezagarese Red Chipper Posts: 185
    Wiki_Leaks wrote: »
    Zag-open equilab, plug in what you open utg and what you call on the button with on this flop and eval equities.

    This is kind of my point. My UTG range is probably tighter than you're 'aggro ass's.

    Are you assigning a range to the button that is equivalent to what you would call on the button? Or is it modified to that specific person in that game at that time? I'm sure the latter but the language throughout these discussions - most threads - seems to be really vague about this sort of thing.

    For the record, I like the way you think about the hand and the way you play it.

  • Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 559 ✭✭✭
    In the words of split, plug in a few different ranges and see how they look.

    Thanks all. Good thread
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,618 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Z- You're right and I understand your concern but I don't always have time to go through these things.

    From this and his other hands he posted recently, I assume WL's range is a fairly tight one from UTG, something normal like 88+ AQ+ and by the river he's simply now at the bottom of it.

    As for villain, without any information, I'm assuming it's something pre along the lines of TT-22,AQs-A2s,K7s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AQo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,T9o, or 282 combinations.

    which by the river maybe looks closer to:

    TT-88, AsJs, AcJc, KdJd, KsJs, KcJc, QdJd, QcJc, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JdTd, JsTs, JcTc, Ah9h, Kh9h, Qh9h, Jd9d, Js9s, Jc9c, Th9h, Ah8h, Kh8h, 9h8h, 8d7d, 8s7s, 8c7c, Ah6h, 7d6d, 7s6s, 7c6c, Ah5h, 6h5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, AhJd, AhJs, AhJc, AsJd, AsJc, AcJd, AcJs, KdJs, KdJc, KhJd, KhJs, KhJc, KsJd, KsJc, KcJd, KcJs, QdJs, QdJc, QhJd, QhJs, QhJc, QcJd, QcJs, JdTh, JdTs, JdTc, JsTd, JsTh, JsTc, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs

    85 combinations, possibly many more if this guy peels super light on the turn. For instance, if WL is right and villain still has 55/66 somehow, there's even more than I estimate, but I think those will give up on the river anyway, and is a definite reason not to take showdown. It's more the 88-TT to worry about, beyond all the jacks.

    So villain has to fold around 39% of the time to make this break even with a $200 bet, and he's got up to 39 jacks and 18 88-TT, so he might optimistically fold as little as 33%, so things are looking bad on the surface. But I don't think he will call nearly all those times. So if villain folds half his under pocket pairs, nevermind some jacks, he's folding 44% of the time +, and WL's play theoretically works.

    So, if we use my placeholder ranges, and villain folds 33%, WL ev looks like $-30.
    If 44%, his ev is +$27.

    The larger WL bets, the more Villain folds, I'd imagine, so to come back to where I started, bet bigger, get more folds. For instance, if he folds all his 88-TT, and not even a single jack, looks like like the EV is a more happy +$78. I think in reality he folds many jacks to a proper line and the results are even better. Since WL only owns $50 of the pot if it goes check/check, and probably gets out played by having to fold to a river bet sometimes, it seems essential to bet big enough to fold out almost anything less than a jack.


  • zagaresezagarese Red Chipper Posts: 185
    persuado - thank you for the detailed response. And I certainly get that it takes a lot of time to detail something like this in every post.

    I think the word 'placeholder' in that explains pretty much what I was asking - what's interesting is that your placeholder rangers are definitely different than mine. 'course I don't play 2-5 too often.

    Would your placeholder ranger for a hand you read online be based on what you think that player pool does or on what you would do in that hand?
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 3,618 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well, ideally the poster would say what he thinks villain's range is. OP's clue here is loose preflop, so this range I used is probably not wide enough. I don't think it matters by the river, however, the way this hand and the board ran out.

    Anyway, if no range is offered, that's fine, i'll go with something like I used here, once we get into it, because it's reasonable if generic.

    But, I would never plug in my own range in that spot to answer someone's question, no.

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