Assigning a range and a flop decision

jbruelsjbruels Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
Live 2-5 game with $700 behind.

Hero UTG +2 with 10d-10h
Two limpers, hero raises to $30
Villain in middle position min 3-bets with $400 behind
Folds to hero who calls
Heads up, $65
Flop 8c-5h-2c
Hero checks
Villain bets $40

Villain isn't someone I know well but appears to be a reg with LAG tendencies. Plays lots of hands with reasonable aggression post flop. Min 3-bet range is probably 9-9+, J-10s+, A-Jo+. Flat calling range would probably be very forked so there's a chance he'd try and get tricky with A-A or K-K, maybe Q-Q. So, I can discount those hands a little bit. My plan with the call is to see the flop, check and try to get a live read. If overcards come and he hauls off with a pot sized bet, I'll fold.

I obviously like the flop and probably didn't hit villain. So, I guess the question is what does his middling bet tell me? If my LAG read on him is accurate he's going to c-bet on a flop like this a huge percentage of the time. I like my hand but it's vulnerable if overcards come. Does he want to play for stacks on a flop like this? Should I call and see if he wants to bet another street and "believe the 2nd action?" If I check-raise, what do I think he's going to do? If he folds the bottom part of his range what good does that do me?

Comments

  • jbruelsjbruels Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    edited January 2016
    Click back min bets have been a lot more of a nutty range than a weak range from my experience. No one is expecting a fold to the min raise, so if their isn't fold equity in this action, why would someone use this sizing?

    I know there are definitely players that have metagamed this, but they are the exception to the rule
  • JesseJesse Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    He has $340 left on the flop of $65.

    Given his aggro tendencies, I'm inclined to check call at least 2 streets. Check-raising overreps your hand.

    Only interesting case is if a club comes. Not sure if you should consider turning your hand into a bluff
  • jbruelsjbruels Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
  • jbruelsjbruels Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    edited January 2016
    -ev wrote: »
    Click back min bets have been a lot more of a nutty range than a weak range from my experience. No one is expecting a fold to the min raise, so if their isn't fold equity in this action, why would someone use this sizing?

    So, basically since it's pretty clear he's not raising to isolate, the answer to the question of why is he raising is because he wants more money in the pot. Given that, I'm pretty much just flipping with the bottom of his range and crushed by the more likely middle (JJ+). With the call, then, I'm essentially set mining and any amount he bets is pretty much going to signal strength.
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    jbruels wrote: »
    So, basically since it's pretty clear he's not raising to isolate, the answer to the question of why is he raising is because he wants more money in the pot. Given that, I'm pretty much just flipping with the bottom of his range and crushed by the more likely middle (JJ+). With the call, then, I'm essentially set mining and any amount he bets is pretty much going to signal strength.

    That's really my take on it as a default against an unknown. Some things to factor in would be how often they three bet or if you have seen the min 3 bet before.

    This just sucks though, because this is a flop your looking for, but I would make sure to tread carefully if you do want to feel it out for another street.
  • EazzyEazzy Red Chipper Posts: 857 ✭✭✭
    IMO unless the min raiser is short stacked,,,less then 40bb... with limpers in the pot it tends to be.......
    tt-QQ, don't really want to 3 bet but might get good board wants more money in
    or AK type hand.....just a drawing hand will put more in and see....
    rarely AA KK type hand....to scared of multi way pots...and set minors...

    Most low stake live players dont' really think along the lines of fold equity unless they over bet huge...even then rare...

    Without more reads I'm forcing him to fire twise....check call the mid size bet....and check fold the turn to a real bet...(or spike a 10 and make life good)....

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