Good or bad play ?

ElandraelElandrael Red Chipper Posts: 23
edited January 2016 in Online Poker Hands
Hello Everyone,

I am completely fine with my line, I just don't know if this is a good or a bad play overall.

Villain is 25 / 17 with an AF of 2 and 3B of 12 on a 50 hands sample (not that much)

He decided to call in position instead of 3betting. I estimated is calling range PF to be something like this.

TT-22,AJs-A2s,KTs+,Q9s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54s,43s,AJo-A2o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

When he min raise the Flop I put him on something like spade draw, Ax, Jx, or a PP like TT-88, maybe 2 pairs or trips, unlikely but still possible. It could very well be a sign of weakness because this kind of min raise don't achieves much in general on that type of board. Or it could be a sign of big strength.

My read went toward the 1st hypothesis (weakness) so I decided to raise the flop, feeling I could push him away from a small ace, a J or PP and when he did call, I felt committed to barrel any turn to maximize the fold equity of the line I took on the flop.

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2854609

MP: $22.72
Hero (CO): $42.94
BTN: $20.30
SB: $20.30
BB: $57.38
UTG: $24.57

Pre Flop: ($0.30) Hero is CO with 7 :spade: K :spade:
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, BTN calls $0.60, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.50) J :spade: 6 :spade: A :club: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.20, BTN raises to $2.40, Hero raises to $7.80, BTN calls $5.40

Turn: ($17.10) 2 :heart: (2 players)
Hero bets $11.99, BTN calls $11.90 all in

River: ($40.90) 3 :spade: (2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $40.90
Hero shows 7 :spade: K :spade: (a flush, King high)
BTN shows 9 :diamond: A :diamond: (a pair of Aces)
Hero wins $38.24
(Rake: $2.66)

Let me know what you think, don't be soft on me if it's a mistake ;-)

Comments

  • VanessaVanessa Red Chipper Posts: 7
    edited January 2016
    Seems ok to me, I guess, since he only needs to fold about 4% of the time for you to breakeven.

    But at the same time, I think he rarely folds there. Since he called the flop 3bet, half his stack was left by the turn and there was a big pot in the middle. This could have made him feel pot-committed. Even if not, his call on the flop showed some strength.

    A lot of weakish players will call down with any pair of A. If he was a stronger player, he probably would have folded his weak A or smaller pair to a sizable flop 3bet, especially if he doesnt have a good read on you. With only ~50 hands to go on, it's safe to assume that he didn't.

    Maybe you could call his small flop raise, then lead on the turn for a 1/2 pot, and then barrel the river regardless of what comes. That way, if he is semibluffing or raising a weak hand, he will likely just call your turn bet, giving you a better price for your draw. On the river, you may have higher fold equity bc he hasn't invested as much in the pot. You also show more strength by barreling. If he does call your river bluff when you miss, then you can be sure he calls you down with all his weak Ax hands from that point on, giving you value for all your good Ax.

    I hope this helps!


    -Vanessa

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