Blind defence deep in MTT: lead out the turn?

neilv93neilv93 Red Chipper Posts: 67 ✭✭
Deep stages of MTT, final 4/5 tables from a 900+ field so about 40-50 players left. Minimal pay jumps with blinds at 3000/6000 (300), average stack is about 250,000

CO (185365 in chips)
HERO: BB (384132 in chips)
Villain (610,000) raises UTG. I actually just doubled up through him as I 4-bet from UTG with 88, he flatted the 4 with KK and I flopped a set. He then proceeded to berate me for a terrible 4-bet despite 4-bet-calling-it-off the hand before with :As :4s vs. AA. Sufficed to say, he's lost a few big pots and is a bit miffed. The CO calls with 185,000 behind and I have :Qd :8d in the big blind so come along. CO is new to the table so no reads/info, I assume he's flatting IP with small pairs and suited connectors. UTG could be pretty wide, it's not exactly been a tight table and I think he's tilting slightly so could be spewing further. My image is relatively normal. Like I say, 4-bet with 88 and two players berated me so I guess maybe my image is fishy too lol.

Flop comes :Qc :5d :4c with 45,000~ in the middle.

I check, Villain continues for 23,000 and CO folds. Top pair, backdoor diamonds, healthy stack = I call.

The turn comes :9d (91,000~) and I check. I thought about leading but thought it would be better to either check-raise or check-call and try and actualise my equity on the river (thoughts?) but he checked back.

The river came the :Ac and after I checked Villain bet 32000. I tank-folded (correct?). With the flush coming in and the overcard this bet looks scarily value-y IMO. I feel like he would check back a lot of flush draws on the turn, and also hands he's "giving up with" like AK, AJ and AT. I think he'd dub with two pair, sets, AQ, and overpairs so I dunno, I guess I think his river betting range is essentially weak-but-better Queens like QJ, QT, maybe KQ, possibly even rivered two pairs like A5, A4, aces that got there, flushes and then stone cold bluffs.

Should I be playing this differently and maybe lead out the turn rather than let it check through?

Confident I made the correct fold but a big part of me feels like I maybe let him catch up through not taking the initiative myself. Thoughts appreciated.


  • chimerachimera Red Chipper Posts: 94 ✭✭
    Horrible spot but I think I would have raised the flop. It's a hard flop to hit and there are tons of turn and river cards you won't like. Raise flop and fold to a re-raise.
  • neilv93neilv93 Red Chipper Posts: 67 ✭✭
    chimera wrote: »
    Horrible spot but I think I would have raised the flop. It's a hard flop to hit and there are tons of turn and river cards you won't like. Raise flop and fold to a re-raise.

    I've thought this exact thing before but at the same time is it not incorrect to attack an UTG raiser on a board where he would have range advantage (?) over a BB defence?
  • BenLeewoodBenLeewood Red Chipper Posts: 285 ✭✭
    I don't mind the call on the flop to keep the pot from bloating up. A bloated pot + tilting big stack = high potential for a tough decision for you (possibly for all your chips).

    Now the turn is where I think you went wrong. I would have put a pot sized bet here. You have a good chance of taking it down before the river comes. If he has a Flush draw, you must put maximum pressure on him. If he has an Ace-anything....he's folding to a pot sized bet. Furthermore, if he has an Ace-anything, he's definitely going check to try to spike it on the river. Which is probably what happened.

    A pot sized bet into a tilting big stack can be a bit dangerous but your hand can stand some heat here since you picked up a flush draw.

    I'm not saying this is a perfect play by any means. If he gets sticky and calls your turn're in a world of hurt and will pretty much have to give up on the pot. But unless he has AQ or KQ or a lucky 2 should be ahead with a backup flush draw to boot. Lead out on the turn and make him pay for any draws or weaker holding he may have. I'd say 75% of the time, the Gillian will fold.

    This is a complicated hand and since we know what the river brings, it skews things a bit. Hindsight is 50-50. Next time you post a hand like this, you should stop the post after the turn action. You'll get a lot of unbiased opinions from fellow redchippers if we didn't know what the river brought.

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