99 on the BB vs P-recreational : Should we fold ? or Play differently ?

ElandraelElandrael Red Chipper Posts: 23
Hello everyone,

Any help / comment is welcome. I think this spot is very tricky and I m maybe way off with something to complex.

I wonder if finaly, I played it right regarding the flop texture and turn / river card.

VILLAIN stats are VPIP 56 / PFR 0 (136 hands)
He is a typical P-Recreational of the Week End + Early Month ... there is a of this player type (Dead Monney) regarding the time frame.

I came up with :

75% equity on the turn facing something like
22+,A7s-A6s,K7s,T7s+,96s+,85s+,75s+,63s+,53s+,43s,A7o-A6o,T8o+,98o,86o+,76o,64o+,54o

192 combos - total
153 we crush (including 31 drawing for a better full with a T or an 8 on the river)
1 we split
38 we lose against

After calculation I found a risk of being outdraw of 10 % for the 31 combos with a T or 88.

I think we have 5 options :

1 => check / call (if he find the guts to trigger)
2 => bet / bet > call (which I did)
3 => bet / check > fold
4 => bet / check > call
5 => bet / on a T and 8 check > call (100%)

1 is bad I think.

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2858893
UTG: $6.91
MP: $19.28
CO: $38.12
BTN: $14.18
SB: $18.28
Hero (BB): $20.00

Pre Flop: ($0.30) Hero is BB with 9 :club: 9 :diamond:
1 fold, MP calls $0.20, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.80, MP calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.70) 6 :heart: 7 :club: 7 :diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.20, MP calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.10) 7 :spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $2.60, MP calls $2.60

River: ($9.30) 5 :spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $6.20, MP raises to $14.68 all in, Hero calls $8.48
Final Pot: $38.66
MP shows 4 :heart: 7 :heart: (four of a kind, Sevens)
Hero shows 9 :club: 9 :diamond: (a full house, Sevens full of Nines)
MP wins $36.15
(Rake: $2.51)

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