On the flop knowing Im behind.

Just4funziesJust4funzies Red Chipper Posts: 8
IPoker, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $5 (100 bb)
BB: $1.68 (33.6 bb)
UTG: $7.90 (158 bb)
MP: $7.01 (140.2 bb)
CO: $4.80 (96 bb)
Hero (BTN): $14.72 (294.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Jheart4.gif Theart4.gif
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, SB raises to $0.50, BB calls $0.45, Hero calls $0.35

Flop: ($1.50) Kheart4.gif 8club4.gif 2heart4.gif (3 players)
SB bets $1.50, BB calls $1.18 and is all-in, Hero raises to $14.22 and is all-in

SB is a 25/13 32 hands
BB is a 48/0 52 hands

I think I played preflop ok flatting the 3-bet IP with the fun player cold calling the 3-bet. I would have flatted the re-raise anyways with JTs to see a flop.

My plan was to try to get the BB to myself with any decent hand and check/fold when I wiff the flop.

The monkey wench came when I get a flush draw and the SB makes a stack committing bet and the BB calls.

I know that no matter what I do SB is not folding but also know I need less than 2-1 on the flush draw with two cards. I decide to shove thinking sometimes Im beat by bigger flush draw but the betting looks more like a made hand wanting to ISO the BB.


IDK why all text is red

Looking at it now, it's occurs to me to be a high variance play but one I would make again.

If I am wrong please let me know so I can correct a mistake now and not be so spewy.

Thanks guys

Comments

  • Just4funziesJust4funzies Red Chipper Posts: 8
    oh fixed the REdlol
  • The MuleThe Mule Red Chipper Posts: 779 ✭✭✭
    Based on your assumptions:
    1. You probably need to hit your hand to win. If we assume you won't win if you hit just one pair, this will will a lower bound.
    2. You have implied odds with your draw - SB will put in the remaining $3 if you hit your draw.
    3. You have no fold equity against the SB.

    By putting yourself all in, you are betting $4.50 to win $7.18 so need to win 39% of the time. Using the 4 and 2 rule (or whatever that's called) this is probably pretty close with 9 outs. I think this is probably close to 0 ev.

    Looking at what happens if you just call:

    There are a number of turn cards that are very good for you.

    A heart will come come 19% of the time, you will put in the remaining $3 and win $7.18 net. EV of this scenario = ~$1.66. (Note if the villain has a high heart there is a chance you lose to a fourth heart on the river, or if he has a set you lose to a boat. If you knew this with 100% certainty the EV falls to $1.27 and this becomes a fold on the flop).

    A non-heart Q or 9 will come 13% of the time, you will then have 15 outs on the river. If SB shoves the rest in you will be paying $3 to win $8.68 so need 26%, easy call with ~33%. EV = ~$0.10.

    A J or T will come 13% of the time. Assuming two pair will win it for you, you have 14 outs = 30%, again this is a call. EV = ~$0.07.

    A non-heart A or 7 will come 13% of the time, you will then have 12 outs on the river. This is borderline, EV ~$0.005.

    A blank will come 43% of the time, you will have 9 outs so ~20% and can safely fold.

    It costs $1.50 to see the turn so Net EV of calling flop bet is $0.34.

    There may be some math errors, and things are probably a little less attractive because your opponent may have a redraw, and probably has blockers to the good turn cards.

    However, the key point is you are much better off just calling and seeing the turn card because you then have the option of folding if you don't have odds to continue on the river. By shoving the flop you are essentially giving up this optionality.
  • tr0u8lemakrtr0u8lemakr Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    I agree with Colldav.

    Even without most of the maths, I think the reasoning could go something like this:
    1. The SB have raised pre and bet out aggressively on the flop. This is either for value or to isolate the short stack. He will as a minimum have something that is stronger than your draw at this point.
    2. He only has 60 blind remaining and the odds you give him by staying in the pot means that you are not making him fold no matter what you bet. If like you also had had a much bigger stack you could have called and tried to outplay him.
    3. The all in from you looks like a bet to scare him off (which it was). He would probably read it for what it was and think that your 2:1 draw would be worth the chance even if he does not have a blocker - which he probably does since he was not scared of committing on the flop.

    Cheers
    Trouble

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