AKs 3bet pot on the BTN 2-5

SUsHISUsHI Red Chipper Posts: 13
Im new to game. 10 hands in on the BTN I haven't voluntarily played a hand yet.
Table is playing super loose passive so far.

Villain UTG2 opens to 30 (400 effective)
info: villain raised previous hand also and took it down, I wouldn't assume he's getting out of line though I think he just picked up 2 hands back to back. I haven't seen him before and he looks like a recreational fishy type.

Hero BTN has :Ah:Kh and 3bets to 95 (has villain covered)
Villain calls fairly quickly.

Flop ~ 195 (300 effective)
:Ac:Kc:5c
Villain checks
Hero bets 95
Villain check raises ALLIN for 300
Hero calls
Villain has :Qc:Qs and bricks out.

Pretty standard hand IMO but I wanted to get some opinons on:
- Should villain have 4 bet preflop?
- Is there reason for hero to just flat preflop?
- What should hero do vs 4b ALLIN pre from loose passive fishy villain?
- How does that answer change if stacks are deeper or if he 4bets small?

Comments

  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    edited February 2016
    I'll take 2 of these quesitons
    SUsHI wrote: »
    - Should villain have 4 bet preflop?

    Personally feel QQs are worth 4betting, but it's not really as clear of a choice as some might think, and really is the bottom of my default 4bet range. Once you are getting to 4B or beyond, the amount of mistakes villains are going to make are diminishing rapidly. If you were to 4b with QQs, against most players, the amount of villains continuing with JJs or less is really small. If villains aren't continuing with hands you beat, it can't be that bad not to raise. It's starts to become a polarizing scenario where you are way ahead or way behind, and more so getting weighed towards behind if the villain continues. If it was 2010 when everyone was trying to emulate Tom Dwan and Viktor Blom(Isildur1), I'd say just keep raising with QQs and it would be overall more profitable. Not quite the same in the 2016 poker landscape though.


    I don't mind the V's flat with QQs for the above reasons and particularly with this stack depth. Raising would make for some awkward stack sizes. A min raise to 190 would lead to constructing a micro-spr with roughly 380 in the pot and 210 behind. Really makes it where you would have to min-raise or jam, neither which to seem to have the right kind of fold equity where the min raise people are calling too often(and generally correctly so with 95 to see 280) and the jam no one is calling with anything you beat

    SUsHI wrote: »
    - What should hero do vs 4b ALLIN pre from loose passive fishy villain?
    Let me throw some numbers out here and hopefully either get confirmation or someone chews me a new bottom!
    $305 call and the pot would be $800, 38.5%

    Versus QQs, AKs you are 37.67%, need to fold, EV: -$4
    Versus QQs, AKs/o, you are 41.9%, call, EV: +$30
    versus JJ+,AKs you are 40.04% against this range, call , EV:+$15.32


    This is all against a value range. If the villain can have bluffs, call all day.

    So, realistically, if the fun player is never bluffing and never has less than QQs+, AKs, you could fold. You throw a villain that can bluff more than 1 out of 20 times in this scenario into the mix, call and run better than the villain the times they are ahead.

    If your bank roll is volatile, I wouldn't fault you for folding. Although the math says that assigning JJs/AKs, is a profitable call, you're risking 305(60 BBs) to pick up $15( 3 BBs). Yeah, it's a profitable call, but it's nothing a light 3bet isn't going to accomplish in a more clearly defined spot
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,396 ✭✭✭✭✭
    SUsHI wrote: »
    - Should villain have 4 bet preflop?
    - Is there reason for hero to just flat preflop?
    - What should hero do vs 4b ALLIN pre from loose passive fishy villain?
    - How does that answer change if stacks are deeper or if he 4bets small?

    -Yes. On the button you will be at your widest, and if you only have KK+ he can't set mine anyway.
    -Yes, but that doesn't make it right.
    -Call.
    -There is some stack depth where villain will not 4bet allin without KK+ and we can't get AK in, but we have no idea what that is yet for this villain. If he clicks it back we're priced in with AK anyway, and at this stack depth RIO is not our main concern.

    This hand is all about villain's calling error. If he can shut out AK's equity he's made a giant leap forward. If he forces you to call off with AK he's winning. If he flats QQ and only four bets better, he will get owned over and over.

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