Call or fold to shove with 33 against a 13 blind stack

tr0u8lemakrtr0u8lemakr Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
Hi all - this is my first post in this forum, but I expect it will be the first of many.

This is a hand that I played yesterday. We were deep in the money, and I was trying to accumulate more chips to reach the final table. I was half of average at this point.

This hand was against to Mixed/Balanced players (both more or less VpIP 22 and pFR 17) and Vilain had a 3Bet rate of 14.3 (over 100 hands). Most of his 3bets were from the blinds.

I end up calling his shove as I put him A2+, 77+, KQs+. I should have 33% Equity against this, and with 5.5 blinds already in the pot, I have to call off 11 blinds to win 18.5 - So around 37% of the pot.

It was a close call and I am still not sure I got it right.

Please let me know what you think.



Poker Stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t1400/t2800 Blinds + t350 - 9 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP1: t57881 M = 7.87
MP2: t36871 M = 5.02
CO: t114057 M = 15.52
BTN: t145138 M = 19.75
Hero (SB): t56123 M = 7.64
BB: t35382 M = 4.81
UTG: t50781 M = 6.91
UTG+1: t35272 M = 4.80
UTG+2: t79565 M = 10.83

Pre Flop: (t7350) Hero is SB with 3heart.gif 3diamond.gif
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to t5600, 4 folds, Hero calls t4200, BB raises to t35032 all in, 1 fold, Hero calls t29432

Flop: (t78814) Qheart.gif 7spade.gif Tspade.gif (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t78814) Qclub.gif (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t78814) 8spade.gif (2 players - 1 is all in)

Comments

  • dirty moosedirty moose Red Chipper Posts: 482 ✭✭✭
    Hello and welcome to the forums!

    So you called a raise from the SB with a weak hand. Are you set mining? What's your plan here of the flop misses you?

    When you call here, you set up a perfect squeeze for the day BB. He knows you're not strong. You start the hand with 20 BB. You're not in great shape, but not totally desperate.

    I'd say calling this raise out of the SB is the worst of our options. I think it a raise or fold situation. Raising probably better because of fold equity. The original raiser has an akward stack size. He won't call your raise without something decent.

    As played.... At the very best your 50/50 but you could also be crushed. I think this is an easy fold. You just paid the blinds. Hold on to your 17 or 18 BB and wait for a better spot.

    Matt
  • tr0u8lemakrtr0u8lemakr Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    Thanks Matt

    Yes, I would normally agree. And that is also the way I felt after him hitting two queens :)

    However, I also felt that with the pace of the knockouts (I think we were 27/1600 at that point), I didn't have much time to chip up if I wanted to reach the FT with a decent stack. As things went, I managed to get back up to 25 blinds before running KK into AA and finishing at 14th.

    So maybe the question should be, is there a time where a 50/50 gamble - which I felt it was - would be OK. My reasoning was that if I lost I would still have a little more than a conventional shoving stack and could make a move. However, if I held the baby, I would be in a very good position to reach the FT and do well.

    So... When is the time to make that stand, and what kind of hand do I have to wait for etc. :)
  • rocky ricocorocky ricoco Red Chipper Posts: 20 ✭✭

    This hand was against to Mixed/Balanced players (both more or less VpIP 22 and pFR 17) and Vilain had a 3Bet rate of 14.3 (over 100 hands). Most of his 3bets were from the blinds.

    I am curious abut the 3bet stat as this seems to be what you are using to justify the call. Was it 15 in 100+ opportunities? 2 in 14 chances? If its the latter I am just mucking the hand. I would call with a range of 88+,AQ+ . The problem I would have here is that I denied having that strong a hand by not 3betting. Against the looser 3bet(11% 77+,A2s+,ATo+,KQs) 11% I would have a +%ev call of roughly +0.02% in my case I would lean towards folding. I included a the off suit aces

    The real issue here is what do we do with the hand facing a bet if we 3bet here we have basically a resteal stack so I believe we need to shove or fold here, The shove with this hand is -%ev about -0.12% . I would 3bet shove with a range of 88+,AQ+, (note this is the same range I would call the villain with).
    So... When is the time to make that stand, and what kind of hand do I have to wait for etc. :)

    To answer that I would watch the videos from Gareth James found here redchippoker.com/pro/James/

    Hope this helps


  • tr0u8lemakrtr0u8lemakr Red Chipper Posts: 6 ✭✭
    Hi Rocky ricoco

    Thanks for your comment. I agree. The call(s) with the 33 were a bit too optimistic and passively played. Since posting the hand I have done some more analysis and come up with a range close to what you shared. I'll use that as a better guideline moving forwards.

    Ill start my 7 day trial and take a look at the videos today.

    Thanks for your advice

    Cheers
    Tr08ble

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file