Midstage tourney with value missed?

FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
6 handed at the table currently with roughly 20 players left. A little too far out for me to make ICM considerations with only top 3 spots paying, so at this stage it seems like ICM is less of a factor.

Blinds are 300/600

I'm sitting in the CO with :Ac:5s when it is folded to me. Sitting at 14,000 / 23.3b. Player in the big blind folds way too often(gets me in 'trouble later', but I digress), so I am liberally raising any time she is in the BB without prior action or with limps, and considering it highly if she limps and a squeeze is available.

Since the BB is folding too often and has an inelastic range, But has been fairly tight since getting their stack destroyed, I min raise to 1200. I'm 2nd in chips and the leader was UTG and a non-factor in this hand. SB is the largest stack left with 8k/13Bs

SB calls, button and BB fold.

SB I take as a competent player. First time playing with this villain, first 4-5 hands of the tournament it seemed like they were just an agro-rec, but showed down good hands and logical hands during those hands when it did get to show down. Since this (assumingly) hot streak to start the tournament, has chosen spots wisely.

Again, as my assumption that he is a competent player, I take into consideration that my ranges are fairly wider than most at the table, so the flat range is going to be wider. I'd be surprised if he didn't doubt that my raise was solely for the cards in my hands. 2 seats to my left is going to be one of the first to notice that I'm a raising too often from LP.

Any thoughts on the min raise? I figure it's getting the job done often enough on it's own, so making it larger seems like it's only going to raise the SPR when someone wakes up with a hand.

:4h:6h:8d
SB donk leads for 1300
Smaller sizing, but with the stack depth I don't read too much into it. I feel SB would make this lead solely to stop me from Cbetting, but I don't feel I can raise and folding is out of the question when I feel I'm still probably ahead of his range AND I have a gutshot to boot! Might as well flopped trips!

I flat for the stated reasons. 5.6k in the middle going to the turn, villain effective with 5.5k behind

:5d

Villain checks, I contemplate betting, but think I'm more in SDV mode now. Not a bad card for me by any means, but with villains stack I can't bet small and call off a jam and feel great about it, nor do I think a halfpot or jam myself does anything but fold out worse and get called by better. If he his one of his two overs (which makes up the majority of the range assigned IMO), well, that sucks.

I check

:8c

Villain tank checks, which makes me believe he was contemplating a move.

In game, I checked, but that's why I am posting. I know their is value in not showing my hand, but a little less of my concern with this player pool at this table. Does Villain hero often enough with Ax or maybe a 4 to make this a reasonable bet on the river?

My mistake that I'll admit to is I mentioned something to the effect of "I don't think you'll calll with worse, I check", which was less of a concern than showing my hand first. Sure, the hand is good in this spot so often, but I now have now clue what villain Donk-bet with. Oh well.

Please, let me know if betting would be preferable on the river, or any other spot on this hand. I think it was fairly straight forward, but that could be my mistake as well.

Comments

  • sparkyAAsparkyAA Red Chipper Posts: 160 ✭✭
    Villain donks a small amount on the flop, then checks the turn, which a good card for your hand. Any time an opponent has a small donk bet check line, they are almost always very weak. This is a good spot to take control of the hand, as you are now well ahead of flush draws and weaker paired hands (he will also fold some 6s to a bet here, because the turn is a scary card and you could have an 8 as well).

    Once he checks the river, it is pretty clear that he does not have an 8 or a 6, so it is a good spot to go for thin value. He is unlikely to make a move on you, but will call down with weaker pairs/weaker 5, and sometimes A high (especially since your check on the turn signifies you might have a flush draw played passively). So yes, you may have missed some value here, and it is good that you noticed this. This is a spot many players pass over and never realize the missed opportunity
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    edited February 2016
    sparkyAA wrote: »
    This is a good spot to take control of the hand, as you are now well ahead of flush draws and weaker paired hands (he will also fold some 6s to a bet here, because the turn is a scary card and you could have an 8 as well).
    What kind of sizing would you take the lead for here on the turn? Although I'm confident I'm ahead, I don't know if a bet that is sized to price out FDs is optimal, and basically any bet I add to the pot here commits me with 3rd pair on a 4 straight board.
    sparkyAA wrote: »
    Once he checks the river, it is pretty clear that he does not have an 8 or a 6, so it is a good spot to go for thin value. He is unlikely to make a move on you, but will call down with weaker pairs/weaker 5, and sometimes A high (especially since your check on the turn signifies you might have a flush draw played passively). So yes, you may have missed some value here, and it is good that you noticed this. This is a spot many players pass over and never realize the missed opportunity
    Yeah, once he seemed reluctant to fold(kind of a 'i want to show' delay), I think there was value on it, but wasn't sure. Would you go for half pot or just rip it in to make it look bluffy?
  • JesseJesse Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    I'm not sure I like the flop call - you have no backdoor equity w/ something like the :Ah. Perhaps it's best to fold here and preserve your ability to steal more in the future?

    sparkyAA:
    Weaker 5? You thinking of something like K5s (2 combos)? Q5-95 probably dont get played, 85 is a boat, 75 is a straight, 65 is technically winning also. The only weaker pairs he could have are 33, 22 and something like A4s.

    When you "rip it in" on the river, you aren't making it look bluffy - you are bluffing and you're forcing him to call for his tournament life.

    Maybe a small 2k bet on the turn was right? I'm not sure your pair is strong enough to bluff catch, and you might get him to fold a 6x or random overcards while still getting value from flush draws.

  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    Jesse wrote: »
    I'm not sure I like the flop call - you have no backdoor equity w/ something like the :Ah. Perhaps it's best to fold here and preserve your ability to steal more in the future?
    Really feels like a blocker bet or bluff more than anything else. I feel I'm ahead of his range with just ace high a good portion of the time, and I think that they are going to shut down on the turn. To me, it feels exploitable folding here on a board that does little justice for villains calling range and my betting range preflop while the ace might be good.

    Jesse wrote: »
    l
    Maybe a small 2k bet on the turn was right? I'm not sure your pair is strong enough to bluff catch, and you might get him to fold a 6x or random overcards while still getting value from flush draws.
    I'm not sure my pair is strong enough to value bet on the turn! I would think that most his value hands that he lead the flop with are going to be A8, A6, A4, and some SC such as 89, 87, 76, 65. I'm pretty sure any AJs+ he'd happily just rip over my minbet with my image, and Kxhh would seem like a hand with an obscure donk line

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