2/5 Delayed Double Barrel??

Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 669 ✭✭✭
2/5 casino

This was a smaller hand but one that gave me some thought. Do I need to fire the river here? This was very early in my session and my reads are minimal. Both Villains were prone to playing too many hands, but again it was early. We all have between $500-$600.

I open to $20 in MP and the Button and BB call.

FLOP: $60 :8h:7d:3s

All check.

TURN: $60 :8h:7d:3s:Qs

BB: Check/Fold
Hero: $40
Button: calls - rather quickly

RIVER: $140 :8h:7d:3s:Qs:4c

Both check.

1) I viewed the flop as a bad board to c-bet. Do you agree?
2) I'm fine with the turn bet.
3) Is this a spot for a delayed double barrel? Should I continue to rep the :Qs ? After villain called the turn I thought he had a :Qc and would fold. But results have me thinking otherwise.

Comments

  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 780 ✭✭✭
    1) I agree, bad board to cbet
    2) I'm fine with turn bet
    3) I fire. Villain not necessarily have Q on turn call. Could be anything. Chance 5,6 got there but there is so much that missed and other holdings that will fold. Not a great spot, but without true showdown value I'm hitting it for $100
  • jimbo123jimbo123 Red Chipper Posts: 107 ✭✭
    Exploitatively I think the BTN will fold almost 95%+ of his range to a solid overbet of 180. The BTN is capped, and in all honesty can't be stronger than AQ or maybe Q8s if he flats that on the turn. The straight is possible but I'd expect him to bet at least a few combos of that on the flop.

    I think the turn brings so many gutshots and flush draws that this is a really profitable spot to fire on the river especially if you don't have a spade, or have an A or K or J which reduces the chance he has top pair.


  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,396 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Why would he fold a queen?
  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 669 ✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Why would he fold a queen?

    Are you asking me or jimbo?
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,396 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Skors3 wrote: »
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Why would he fold a queen?

    Are you asking me or jimbo?

    I was asking you.
  • JesseJesse Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Why would he fold a queen?

    I think he meant wouldn't but wrote "would" instead.
  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 669 ✭✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Skors3 wrote: »
    persuadeo wrote: »
    Why would he fold a queen?

    Are you asking me or jimbo?

    I was asking you.

    Poor editing. I did not think he would fold if he held a queen
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,396 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think his snap calling but no bet on the flop range is queens, eights, sevens, but behaviorally skewed toward draws and queens. Perhaps you can reduce the good queens but because people like to bluff catch so much I am not sure without more info.

    Playing around with a possible range that is more value heavy I came up with:

    T9s, 65s, AdQh, AdQc, AhQd, AhQc, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AcQd, AcQh, KdQh, KdQc, KhQd, KhQc, KsQd, KsQh, KsQc, KcQd, KcQh, AdQd, AhQh, AcQc, KdQd, KhQh, KcQc, QdJh, QdJs, QdJc, QhJd, QhJs, QhJc, QcJd, QcJh, QcJs, AsJs, KsJs, QdJd, QhJh, QcJc, AsTs, KsTs, QdTd, QhTh, QcTc, JsTs, As9s, Ks9s, Qd9d, Qh9h, Qc9c, Js9s, As8s, Js8s, Ts8s, 9s8s, As7s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8c7c, As6s, 8s6s, 7h6h, 7s6s, 7c6c, As5s, 7s5s, As4s, As2s

    Which leaves too many queens (42 out 75) hands for a realistically profitable bluff unless we are getting weird with an overbet, but let me get back to that.

    However, I don't really think this range is right. if we can reinterpret his snap call as meaning more pocket pairs I thought would not snap, and reduce his queens that might pause to think about raising on the turn or folding on the river, I think we are approaching a better spot because say, pocket fives and 76 or ace high (if you are losing to it) all give up. In this second scenario he has maybe closer to 24 queens and folds to a $125 bet profitably often.

    Finally, if we are repping the queen, we would bet this hand for thin value. I don't see an overbet as making that much handreading sense, as we might have bet 56 on the flop, pocket queens, or aces, therefore it's hard to polarize this runout after checking the flop.

    As for villain being capped, that's a bit of an overstatement. We don't know how he plays his draws, and it's early in the session where he doesn't have to stick his neck out vs. Skors.
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    I don't think that AQ / KQ would be snap calling. Most players would at least take a few moments to contemplate the better line between flat or raise. It's more of a weaker Q or draw snap call. I don't think this is a horrible spot to fire the second barrel, but really going to depend on what you are trying to accomplish on the river.
    -Thin value I'd probably cut off at QJ, I don't think their is much, but could be wrong. Maybe the villain is sticky with an 8, so maybe all Qs are fine.
    -Fat value I'm going for a second barrel and not a CR. Set your own price, and really doubt their is much that is snap Flatting the turn that is going to call a CR.
    -I don't mind putting chips out as a bluff either. Villain is pretty capped.
  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 669 ✭✭✭
    I think a couple people alluded to the possibility that Villain was on a spade draw due to his snap call. Or perhaps I'm guilty of finding what I was looking for. Sometime within the last couple weeks, during a viewing of LATB, Limon made a comment that when Villains snap call in a spot such as the one I encountered they mostly have draws there. This did not dawn on me at the time, but probably on the car ride home. I wanted to see if others thought that Villain could be draw heavy here.
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    Skors3 wrote: »
    I think a couple people alluded to the possibility that Villain was on a spade draw due to his snap call. Or perhaps I'm guilty of finding what I was looking for. Sometime within the last couple weeks, during a viewing of LATB, Limon made a comment that when Villains snap call in a spot such as the one I encountered they mostly have draws there. This did not dawn on me at the time, but probably on the car ride home. I wanted to see if others thought that Villain could be draw heavy here.

    Draw or a pair not strong enough to consider raising is typically where I see it.

    If you are at the very least noticing it, it's a huge step forward. He could be the exception to the rule that instachecks as a feigned weakness, but if I have no reads, this is usually one of the more reliable ones without a baseline
  • OutlierOutlier Red Chipper Posts: 158 ✭✭
    Of course I sound like a dweeb saying it after you said it, by my first thought after reading the hand was that villain's hand was heavily weighted toward draws. I typically in play in loose passive $1/3 games, and that quick calling action typically signifies a draw in my game, too.

    I don't know how effective it is, but I sometimes use this snap-call as a reverse tell vs this competition to represent a draw, i.e., when floating in position so I can represent the draw on later streets. It can work in my games because so few players play their draws aggressively.

  • limonlimon Red Chipper Posts: 18 ✭✭
    Skors3 wrote: »
    I think a couple people alluded to the possibility that Villain was on a spade draw due to his snap call. Or perhaps I'm guilty of finding what I was looking for. Sometime within the last couple weeks, during a viewing of LATB, Limon made a comment that when Villains snap call in a spot such as the one I encountered they mostly have draws there. This did not dawn on me at the time, but probably on the car ride home. I wanted to see if others thought that Villain could be draw heavy here.

    Draw or a pair not strong enough to consider raising is typically where I see it.

    If you are at the very least noticing it, it's a huge step forward. He could be the exception to the rule that instachecks as a feigned weakness, but if I have no reads, this is usually one of the more reliable ones without a baseline

    agreed.

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