7-way pot, bottom 2 pair

JesseJesse Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
2/5 NL at Hustler. About $450 effective stacks.

I should have a tight/aggro image.

UTG/villain mid-aged asian guy (in his 40's). He limps with a weak/speculative range; I've seen suited hands like K4s. Seems willing to gamble a little. Will raise preflop with his better hands. This will be our first big hand together.

4 players limp, I call with :9c:8s on the button, 7-ways $35

Flop:
:Jh:9h:8c
Checked to me, I bet $25. UTG check/raises to $75, everyone else folds. I call.

Turn: $185 pot
:Ad
He bets $150. I call.

River: $485 pot ($200ish behind)
:6s

He checks, I check.

Comments on all streets would be appreciated.

Comments

  • philby20philby20 Red Chipper Posts: 189 ✭✭
    Im probly not as experienced to answer this compared to some of the other pros on here but when he check raises on the flop what do u put him on. over pair/ better 2 pair/ flush draw/ tptk/ or pair with oesd but would probly just call with that hand, but anyway once u get to the turn pretty much all the hands you beat would most likely have checked and face bets from hands you are already loosing to, apart from ax suited of hearts which turned a pair or tptk which now has 2 pair which you loose too, i assume he either had u dominated or some weird garbage hand you never would have put him on? did you win the hand?
  • philby20philby20 Red Chipper Posts: 189 ✭✭
    i probaly wouldn't limp behind with that hand though suited yes unsuited no
  • JesseJesse Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    philby20 wrote: »
    i probaly wouldn't limp behind with that hand though suited yes unsuited no

    I generally don't - but multiple players had already limped and I was on the button. It's a very rare play for me.
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,082 -
    philby20 wrote: »
    when he check raises on the flop what do u put him on.

    This. Let's start here...
    📑 Grab my custom poker spreadsheet pack right now.
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  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    edited February 2016
    I don't think I have much to add on the hand itself, 7 ways to the flop is a little darned if you do, darned if you don't. I don't think you're ahead after the CR, but can be villain dependent. You have a strong bluff catcher, and at no point after the CR do I think their is thin value to gain
    philby20 wrote: »
    Im probly not as experienced to answer this compared to some of the other pros on here but ...
    Hey Philby20! As of recently, I found this more of a reason to post my thoughts than a reason to hold them back. Worst case scenario, someone with more experience will come by in a day or so and talk about their viewpoint. If it's really out-of-line or their seems to be a more optimum way to look at it or things to consider, you'll recall the pro's correction a lot better if you have your thoughts listed on the forum and your thought process gets actively challenged. Simply reading replies is a little too passive for retention for me personally, and definitely feel that if I get spot checked on one of my replies, I recall it 3 fold better.
  • JesseJesse Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    SplitSuit wrote: »
    philby20 wrote: »
    when he check raises on the flop what do u put him on.

    This. Let's start here...

    I'd say, it's unlikely he has a strong made hand. OOP in a 7 way pot on a fairly draw heavy board, I'd say it'd be somewhat weird to check T7 or QT or J9. Sets are unlikely, I have a 9 and 8 and he probably raises JJ pre. To have a legit hand beating me, I think he'd have to have QhTh or Th7h.

    Also, I'd expect him to lead with strong flush draws, like Ah8h, AhTh (maybe AT raises pre?).

    It's possible that he has a hand like T9, JT or Ahxh, or Khxh and was attacking a perceived late-position flop steal.

    I should also be perceived as fairly tight at the table, so maybe he thought he could get me to fold (unsure if this is a good line of thinking).

    I wasnt planning on calling a river 3rd barrel w/o a boat.
  • JesseJesse Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    As a side note, this is a $100-300 max buyin game, so to get to this stack size, both of us had to win some pots.
  • sparkyAAsparkyAA Red Chipper Posts: 160 ✭✭
    The issue here is that you are in a slightly ahead/way behind scenario. He either has you crushed or has at least 9 outs (even if he has a hand like QJ he has 9 outs still). The A on the turn doesnt complete any draws but does hit his 2 pair range pretty solidly (and if he had the A high flush draw now he picked up 5 more outs).

    Two factors would make me honestly toss my hand on the flop after being reraised

    A. You said this player limps with K4 and other hands. Often players who limp with this will also limp with pocket pairs under JJ trying to spike trips. They will play them in a manner that is not the highest +EV because, let's face it, these are the people limping with K4. They aren't the most strategic. Given the K4 factor, he could also have 107s or Q10 off, along with J8 J7 combos

    B. This is 7 handed on the flop. Not many people will reraise light. with so many people behind, a flush draw would probably be tempted to flat and see if anyone else comes along. I would put more weight towards the two pair/sets/pair with an open ender/straight part of his range. Therefore, I would fold. By flatting the flop raise, the only good turn cards are the 4 outs we have and maybe some low non heart cards. Anything else hammers his range even more and puts us in an awkward spot
  • philby20philby20 Red Chipper Posts: 189 ✭✭
    what hand did he show down?
  • BenLeewoodBenLeewood Red Chipper Posts: 285 ✭✭
    First of all, I'm raising on the button here to narrow the field. A raise will also help me assign more precise ranges. If you limp with this hand....your looking for trip 8's or a flopped straight that you can play hard. Flopping two pair here with a J,7,T or Q presents a sticky situation. And sure enough, that's what's happened. 2 hearts on board doesn't help the situation.

    But hey....you've flopped 2 pair with a bunch of callers for only $5. Although timid and weak, I'd think about checking this. It seems like a way ahead or way behind kind of flop. Your not going to get any of the draws to fold for $25 so why not see if you can spike the boat. If it misses and another coordinated card comes....you fold for a total loss of $5. If someone was crushing you on the flop, you'll certainly hear from them on the turn. Once again.....your only in for $5. This is the timid approach. But if I limp on the button with this hand....I'm playing it timid unless I flop the nuts.

    The $25 flop isn't a bad bet. But the check/raise from UTG should be ringing some alarm bells. I'm folding here. Something just isn't right. I'm only in for $30 (which ironically is what I should have raised it to preflop). I can get away from this one and find a better spot. The only thing I can feel great about is a 8 on the turn. Even a 9 may be no good if Villian has a J9.

    An Ace on the turn just makes things even more complicated. Now you're in for $80, in an unraised pot, with bottom 2 pair, on a pretty coordinated board. Ugh. And here comes the inevidable near pot sized bet lead out from UTG. Now the timid flop check isn't looking so bad in hindsight. It would have given us the opportunity to control the pot size. Now we're looking at the very real possibility of being ALL IN by showdown in what seemed to be a innocent limp on the button.

    The river changes nothing (unless you put him on hearts which bricked out). But I'd be shocked if he didn't shove UTG. The pot certainly warrants a shove. And your pretty committed to calling at this point. Ugh.

    Can't wait to see the results.
  • JesseJesse Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    edited February 2016
    I was trying to think of the hand from his perspective, and I gave him credit for being a somewhat aggressive, reasonable player/reg, but not done kind of crushing pro.

    On the flop, if you held J9, QT, T7, J8 or a set, is your natural inclination to check and slowplay, or bet for protection/value?

    If you held QJ, JT, AT T9 or Kh4h, would you consider a check raise for value/protection/semibluff after checking and the button fires at it?

    I'm not expecting him to 3barrel pretty much ever, so I think calling turn to fold river was OK

    One more question to the crowd: what is the worst hand you'd call with on the turn, if not 98?
  • stocklocke&barrelstocklocke&barrel Red Chipper Posts: 4
    edited February 2016
    I would have bet pre-flop with position. Thin the herd. After the flop, villain could have two overs (but you mention he bets his better hands), the straight or flush draw. The CR makes me he's protecting his straight from the flush draw. When the turn hits, he's still good with all the fore mentioned. But the check on the river, he had a busted flush draw. maybe one pair
  • JesseJesse Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    edited February 2016
    So here's quite a bit more analysis, critiques would be appreciated:

    Let's break down all the possible hands he could have made a c/r on the flop with -- because he limped, I'm assuming a preflop range of: 99-22,AJs-A2s,K2s+,Q9s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,AJo-A8o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,T9o

    This is pairs 99-22, suited Ax, suited Kx, lots of broadways, relevant suited connectors and some offsuit connectors (T7s, but not T7o). I've assumed that JJ+,AQ are not in the range. I'm fairly certain he's the type that would raise JJ+ from UTG.

    From the above range, we get:

    1. Super-nuts (QhTh, Th7h) 2 combos
    our flop equity 15% / turn equity 8%

    2. Slow-played nuts (QT, T7) 20 combos
    flop equity 19% / turn equity 9%

    3. 2-Pair, Sets (J9, J8, 98, 99, 88) 6 combos
    16% / 10%

    4. A-hi/K-hi hearts, Th8h, 18 combos
    61% / 67%

    5. Worse J, (AJ,KJ,QJ,JT) 48 combos
    64% / 60%

    6. OESD+OC/OESD+Pair (AT,KT,T9,T8) 39 combos
    65% / 73%

    Players at Hustler have a tendency to push flush draws very hard on the flop, I'd expect this player to exhibit this characteristic. If we assume he's playing everything in category 4 and up 100% of the time like this, I'm 35% vs. the range. Depending on how often he's playing a hand in category 5 or 6 like this, my equity starts drifting into the 40% range. If you discount the chance that he's playing category 2 and 3 to 50% and category 5 and 6 to 50% as well, I'm >50%.

    So maybe 35%-55% for the flop call.

    The flop call would probably be bad if we were OOP...?

    On the turn, lets say he stops betting the weaker Kx heart draws, QJ, KJ, KT:

    1. Super-nuts (QhTh, Th7h) 2 combos
    8%

    2. More nuts (QT, T7) 20 combos
    9%

    3. 2-Pair, Sets (J9, J8, 98, 99, 88) 6 combos
    10%

    4. A-hi/KQ,KT,T8 hearts, 12 combos
    60%

    5. "Worse" J, (AJ,JT) 21 combos
    40%

    6. OESD+OC/OESD+Pair (AT,T9,T8) 20 combos
    65%

    Note that AJ is now beating us, as is Ah8h

    The turn call is dicier - If he plays 100% of categories 1-6 like this, I'm 48% (whoo!). If he never shows up having played a hand in categories 5-6 I'm 31%. So I guess I'm somewhere in the 30-50% equity range on the turn, getting 2:1.

    I'm still going with my read that he would never ship the river without a hand that absolutely crushes me.
  • JesseJesse Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    I would have bet pre-flop with position. Thin the herd. After the flop, villain could have two overs (but you mention he bets his better hands), the straight or flush draw. The CR makes me he's protecting his straight from the flush draw. When the turn hits, he's still good with all the fore mentioned. But the check on the river, he had a busted flush draw. maybe one pair

    I'm not sure "thinning the herd" is the right move with this hand. The goal is to smash a flop cheaply in position. If I make a huge raise preflop, like +$30, it's somewhat likely that someone w a $100-200 stack may call (theorrtically incorrectly) and get it in on a lot of boards. I'd rather make this play with offsuit Broadway hands.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,396 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This is a good hand because it is a poster child for why you want a real strategy. There's no reciprocal advantage to limping this, flopping huge, and then turning it into a bluff catcher, as this is how most players will play this situation, yet they will never wonder what to do with the nuts here. Maybe it's your turn to cooler someone, maybe it's his, as played. From Villain's perspective he should ship every river when you play like this on this board, and then what is the plan?

    Hands like this show the advantage of playing a static range (because you'll play hands that maximize your position), having a raise or fold tendency (to claim equity), or having some post flop strategy that doesn't tie you to your exact cards. 89o is hand that does not dominate limping ranges, so our only advantage here is the button. That's a real advantage and a real reason to play, but we've surrendered every other one in the course of this hand. So from way in advance, if the plan is to limp, the implication should be that we think we're going to play better than anyone else in the hand after the flop.

    As played I would commit on the flop because his range his draw heavy, we block value hands, his x/r is therefore most likely for maximum f/e, there is no room for play past the turn, and there is no range advantage for either of us. If I called flop to ensure all the money goes in and to see a safe card, I'm surely shipping turn, as there is no room for play on the river. If I lose to a better two pair, it's one hundred percent collateral damage from trying to out-limp the field, which I would know and be accountable for the second I put the red chip in.

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