200BB deep 50nl zoom. JJ 3B pot facing a c/r allin on the flop.

AshleyAshley Red Chipper Posts: 50
PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 188.36 BB (VPIP: 24.91, PFR: 20.57, 3Bet Preflop: 8.91, Hands: 1,363)
SB: 235.66 BB (VPIP: 86.67, PFR: 60.00, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 15)
Hero (BB): 202.52 BB
UTG: 155.46 BB (VPIP: 23.19, PFR: 19.42, 3Bet Preflop: 9.35, Hands: 569)
MP: 105.18 BB (VPIP: 25.77, PFR: 20.52, 3Bet Preflop: 7.34, Hands: 839)
CO: 179.8 BB (VPIP: 24.71, PFR: 19.11, 3Bet Preflop: 9.51, Hands: 891)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Js Jh
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, SB calls 2 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, BTN calls 7.5 BB, SB calls 7.5 BB

Flop : (30 BB, 3 players) 8d 3d 3h
SB checks, Hero bets 15.5 BB, fold, SB raises to 225.66 BB and is all-in

Not much info on the villain but seems to be a bad aggressive player based on his stats 87/60 only 15 hands. Do you rely on these stats and make this call or are we just to deep to justify calling?

Comments

  • evpropevprop Red Chipper Posts: 62 ✭✭
    TT+ he is 3betting pre?
    Big Broadway's he's 3 betting pre?
    22-99 he's calling?
    Suited connectors calling?

    So your up against 33 88 99 89 78 8T 86 23 34 35 and how many flush draws?

    I would call, although I need to do some homework and figure out if calling with an overpair vs a flush draw is +ev

  • evpropevprop Red Chipper Posts: 62 ✭✭
    Also maybe not 3 betting qk jk jq so nut flush draws non nut flush draws with extra equity of hitting the A K Q on turn or river
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper, Table Captain Posts: 4,199 ✭✭✭✭✭
    That maniacal a stat line means I think this guy is making big plays and taking advantage of straightforward players. I'd make the call.
  • evpropevprop Red Chipper Posts: 62 ✭✭
    This could be completely wrong lol but heres what i did.
    in equilab i tried this,
    lets say villain is shoving made hands, flush draws & TPTK hands that he could have called with preflop:
    33,88, A3o, A3s for made hands
    and
    KJs,KTs,K9s,K8s,QJs,QTs,JTs,A8o for flush and TPTK

    it evaluated you having 48.75% equity.

    Then I added some hands that i have seen these player types do crazy things with:
    K8o,98o,98s,78s for weak top pair type hands that they just want to go nuts with

    it evaluated you having 61% equity

    Then i looked at the times when villain misplays/gets tricky with big hands you would expect him to 3bet preflop with:
    99-AA, AKs,AQs,AJs for overpairs and nut flushes

    it gave your equity as 42%

    Finally i put all of these hands together from above and it gave your equity at almost 54% equity.

    Thats how i thought to break this hand down, if I am doing this all wrong can someone join in and put me right? or have I rationally thought about this the right way??

    "IF" i am correct in my thoughts then it is a lot closer than I first thought, since its a 200bb pot, do you want/need more equity in the hand to call???
  • AshleyAshley Red Chipper Posts: 50
    Thanks. I agree with calling Vs a maniac here. But would 15 hands be enough to determine that?
  • evpropevprop Red Chipper Posts: 62 ✭✭
    @100bbs and plenty of instances of seeing these types within the player pool at your stake level then I would lean towards calling but 200bbs??? I can see myself grrrr ing a little and folding

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