On the button with T9 diamonds

mdw72mdw72 Red Chipper Posts: 141 ✭✭
2-5 Full table effective stack is 800. Its too close to call on who has who covered so we will say its my stack.

1 limper
Hero raises to 25
SB and BB call
limper folds

$80 in the pot

Flop :As:Ts:9h

Checks to Hero
Hero bets $50
SB and BB call

Pot $230

Turn : :7h
SB and BB check
Hero bets $200
SB calls
BB shoves
Hero???

Will post details after some raw analysis

Comments

  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 669 ✭✭✭
    This is an interesting spot. I'm going to take a crack at it. I think I make the call but I'm not too excited about it.

    I think the SB is on some draw he feels he's priced in to call.

    I think the BB is leaning more toward value. He's seen you open raise then bet 2 streets strongly. And he's seen the SB call. But how many value hands can he have here? He doesn't have AA or 77. There's only one combo of 99 and TT left. I guess he could have AT. That's the hand I'd be most worried about. The only draw that came in is J8, which is unlikely. Maybe he has a :Ah:Xh type hand.

    I'm interested to hear what others have to say.
  • philby20philby20 Red Chipper Posts: 189 ✭✭
    a10 of hearts maybe maybe not but he could easily have a10off or a9 its hard to say i think if he has 2 pair he gets it in there to protect against the double flush maybe he had a spade flush draw with a gutter that wanted to call one street and turned the straight im not sure really but i wouldnt be loving my hand in that particular spot facing that on the turn, sometimes i check back the turn in spots like this when i have position and give them a free chance to draw out in an effort to pot control it may be a bit passive but it keeps me out of a sticky spot with what could easily all ready be second or 3rd best hand then i decide if i want to check or value bet the river or may have induced a bluff from villain
  • The MuleThe Mule Red Chipper Posts: 790 ✭✭✭
    I agree, I think you have to call. You are getting too good a price and two pair is too high in your range with one card to come on such a wet board.

    SB definitely feels like a draw. I don't see what value hands BB could have that wouldn't raise on such a wet flop. To me it feels more like a hand that picked up equity on the turn, like a flush draw that picked up a straight draw (eg. 5s6s), a straight draw that picked up a flush draw (e.g. QhJh) or a pair + draw type hand (eg. 7d8d or Ah8h) that has decided his showdown value is no good and is turning his hand into a semibluff. A made straight would also make sense (eg. 86s or J8s). With luck SB and BB are blocking each other's outs.
  • sparkyAAsparkyAA Red Chipper Posts: 160 ✭✭
    Interesting previous analysis. I would fold this 9 times out of 10, the one time I call is if I have seen the player push with extremely weak hands in the past.

    1. You have 525 and the pot is around 1350. you have to be right almost 40% of the time to break even.
    2. Facing a big bet and a call, the player's range to do this with drastically shrinks as it seems there is very little fold equity. Therefore, i would weigh his range to have much more made hands than draws in it.
    3. There is still a player to act, who could call with a huge hand. If we call this other player is now getting great odds as well to draw to his flush draw, if that is what he has.
    4. No read was mentioned in the post, so we have to assume these players are playing straightforward up until now. What hands would a random straightforward player push on this board? if they have a big draw, they are getting good odds to call and see a river, and probably realize they have limited fold equity.
    5. Middle 2 pair is typically on the losing end of a hand played for stacks
    6. Drawing to 4 outs is never fun

    Consider your fold +EV and do whatever you can to figure out what each player had if there is no showdown, through friendly conversation
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,396 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 2016
    Need information to make better ranges, yet no reads are provided. However, following post will take a shot at it.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,396 ✭✭✭✭✭
    1. One reasonable if simplified set of assumptions
    Board: 9hAsTs7h
    Equity Win Tie
    BU 22.42% 22.42% 0.00% { Td9d }
    SB 27.91% 27.35% 0.56% { KsQs, KsJs, Kh9h, Ks8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s }
    BB 49.67% 49.11% 0.56% { A7s, J8s, KhQh, KsQs, QhJh, JhTh }

    So this is going to be a plus $15EV or so call off with this simple line up of hands, in part because we have contributed to the overlay.

    2. However, turn improves calling ranges, not PFR range. Why are we betting? If you are b/f AK, what is the actual difference between it and 109? the difference is less than 10% equity. So if you are going to check ace king, I suggest checking 109 some of the times, if your plan is not b/c.
  • mdw72mdw72 Red Chipper Posts: 141 ✭✭
    As Paul Harvey used to say now here's the rest of the story. The table was new probably about an hour or so. I had raised my button almost every time. It was a fairly loose passive 2-5 game to this point. Raises to $20 with a limper or two was taking it down pre flop most of the time. So I was kind of expecting to just take the blinds and limp. Getting the blinds to call wasn't a surprise either.

    I had never played with either one of them before. So from what little I had seen of them neither were very aggressive, played a lot of hands but nothing crazy, and of course they liked to limp. In conversation the SB, a good Notre Dame fan, told me that he and some buddies were down to FL on a gambling trip and to get out of the cold. They had been at the track earlier and he had won about $600. The BB was what I would classify as a grinding amateur. Probably has a 9-5 but spends all the other waking hours at the casino, but didn't play at our casino on a regular basis.

    On the flop I am obviously liking it but I recognized how connected it was. I put the BB on Ax or some kind of straight combo like J8 or T8. I wasn't thinking those specific hands but just hands like that. The SB was a bit more of an enigma but I was thinking big cards and possibly a small flush draw. So I bet an amount I thought would get an Ax to call and get some of the straight draws with no flushes to fold.

    Their call didn't bother me a bit. The turn in and of itself was fine. It completed J8 and 86 but I was ahead of everything else. So I decided to go for some good value and bet $200. They had both checked the flop and turn so I was expecting folds at this point. So a call and a shove surprised me a bit.

    Now I am a bit lost and starting to see monsters everywhere. I still thought there was a good chance I was ahead but once I started to think of the hands that would call $200 and hands that would shove over it I couldn't see a way I could win the hand unless I filled up. The only real safe cards for me are the diamond and club 2's, 3's, 4's, 5's. For everything else other than a Ten or a 9 complete some kind of draw. Against one opponent I am calling for sure but having to fade two hands I couldn't find a way to call. I folded

    The SB didn't fly to FL to fold and he already saw himself as a winner for the day. So I was almost certain he would call. Because BB is what I call a type of grinder his shoved looked way strong. Like Ed Miller has said time and time again these types don't usually shove unless they have the nuts or something close to it. To my amazement SB folded too and showed :7s:8s . BB looks shocked he folded and showed :Qs:8s. Of course I told them I folded AK. SB told me if I would have called he would have felt obligated to come along. Here is a reason to treat your dealer good. I got him to rabbit hunt for me but I tip him really well and I know that was the only reason he did that for me. The river would have been the :2c. Needless to say I shed a tear inside and moved on.

    Even though I know what would have been the outcome had I called, I still think its a good fold. Having so few safe cards and having to dodge two hands is not the spots I want to get it all in. Thanks for the comments and analysis.
  • mdw72mdw72 Red Chipper Posts: 141 ✭✭
    Since I had never played with them much I didn't have a good pre flop range for either of them. After the flop checks and calls I tried to assign the best ranges I could based on what would check and call the action to that point.

    I am convinced I should have checked the turn. I would have kept the pot smaller and could have called a small bet or even bet folded if it checked to me.

  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 669 ✭✭✭
    They both had the :8s ?
  • mdw72mdw72 Red Chipper Posts: 141 ✭✭
    I tried to edit my previous post. I thought I did. BB had :Qs:9s
  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 669 ✭✭✭
    Well now that I know that and that the river was the :2c I stand by my opinion that you should have called.
  • WuBerryWuBerry Red Chipper Posts: 10 ✭✭
    A bet -call-shove sequence on turn feels strong to me. BB had to think he's getting at least one caller there. There are a ton of draws out but I would still have been reluctant to call.
  • roberekhanroberekhan Red Chipper Posts: 13
    Why betting if you don't call a shove? 200 into 230 When you bet 200 and villian(s) calls, there's just one bet left - all-in otr.

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