Delayed float ... best play with this hand? With my range?

SprinklePonySprinklePony Red Chipper Posts: 75
This was 50NL on WSOP.com Nevada/Delaware.

I've been going through my history finding random hands to do some hand reading practice with, and so I don't remember anything about the dynamic of the table, any recent history before the hand, etc.

Anyway, the main villain, the SB, is one I have notes on as being a bit face-up, a bit fishy, likes to 3bet with a depolarized range (such as KTo as BB vs UTG, I have also seen him 3bet/fold). I also have a not of a hand where he cold-called a 3bet OOP with :Jc :8c, check/called with a flush draw, when the flush came in on the turn it checked through, and then he led out on the river for 3/4pot.

The BB is loose passive and would likely cold-call a 3bet with just about anything he'd cold-call an open-raise with, and given that he will open-limp the CO with KQo, I wouldn't be surprised if he would flat a 3bet with AA on occasion.

Hero (UTG): $132.47
SB: $34.83
BB: $20.09

Preflop: (pot: $0.75, 9 players) Hero has :Qh :Jc:
Hero raises to $1.50, folds to SB, SB 3bets to $3.81, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (pot: $10.86, 3 players) :Tc :4c :8h
SB c-bets $8.57, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (pot: $27.15, HU) :8c
Checked through

River: (pot: $27.15, HU) :Jh
Checked through.

Preflop this is definitely a loose raise and I have no problem with it given that I'll rarely be facing much aggression, these players are quite fit or fold, and also make too many calling mistakes. As such, I can find more than enough spots to bluff and take it down, or even get paid off with mediocre value.

I elected to flat the 3bet since I'm in position vs two fish, the size of his 3bet plus the BB's call are giving me great odds, the SB is very passive and likely to have a wide range that will play quite face-up, and I know which boards are going to miss the BB's range and that he is likely to c-bet with most all of his range, and then give up a ton after that.

On the flop, especially once the BB folds, I elected not to raise since if he is bluffing he's unlikely to fire the turn, so why not wait for more information on the turn, but maybe a raise would've been a better play? Folding isn't an option with 2 overcards, a gutshot, and a backdoor flush draw, plus the fact that his range misses this board a decent chunk. I'm assigning him a preflop range of: 77+, any two broadway offsuit or suited, A9s, and K9s. If he's willing to 3bet KTo, then at least any suited broadways are likely, the fringe part of his range, which I could rate at 50%, is A9s, K9s, JTs, QTo+, JTo. Based on this, Flopzilla shows him hitting top pair+ 40.2% of the time, and a good draw 11.9%.

Come the turn, I pick up some extra equity with my :Jc high flush draw, although I could be drawing dead. When he checks, he has three ranges: slowplays, SDV, and bluffs he's giving up on. Given that there is less than a pot-sized bet left, he may be slowplaying, he'll likely check/fold (as opposed to shove) any river with his air, and I have picked up some equity, it seemed that a delayed float (if I'm even using that term right), was the best play. If I don't improve on the river I can shove when checked to, and fold when shoved into. If I hit my straight or flush, I can go for a thin-value bet of about 1/3rd pot, whereas if he shoves ... I think I would have to fold, unless he is shoving *every* overpair, and/or a few bluffs. $23 into $27 would mean I need to win 46% of the time to break even, and based on my analysis, 52.9% of his river shoves have me killed, and 47.1% are overpairs ... so, it would actually be a call, esp if we include just a couple combos of bluffs, such as :Ac :random. And finally, if I improve to a pair, I can fold to a shove (unless I think he is bluffing a TON there, which I doubt), or check-back.

In fact, getting to the turn like this, I can't think of a single hand that I wouldn't check ... or would it be best to shove with the top of my range to get strong flush draws to call that will fold the river when they brick? Looking at Flopzilla, it seems I could expect as much as 60% of his range to call a turn shove, but only 43% or so on a brick river. Based on that, it seems that a good shoving range on the turn would be any nut flush draw, and any overpair+.

Based on my thinking on the turn, I just checked back when I improved to a hand that could beat a flopped top pair. Although, thinking about it now, I should've gone for thin value with my top pair, betting something like 1/4th-1/3rd pot maybe even as much as 1/2, mainly since when he checks again he almost certainly has top pair, an overpair, or air, and there are more top pairs than overpairs that he can call with.

Comments

  • SprinklePonySprinklePony Red Chipper Posts: 75
    Or should the river always be a shove when checked to since it's only $23 behind in a $27 pot?

    If the player was good and capable of putting me on a range or not doesn't seem to change much. I could have flop floats that got scared on the turn and then saw his check back as a green light, as well as flushes, etc. If he isn't going to be thinking that much about it, then it doesn't much matter as he could find a call with Tx (esp since I almost always have an aggro/bluffy image), or just be scared of the flush/trips/whatever.
  • player2player2 Red Chipper Posts: 3
    He is passive, but he also 3bets a depolarized range BB vs UTG? Aside from that being a terrible strategy in general, it is at odds with being a passive player. Passive players don't 3bet often and when they do it's not with KT and not vs. UTG raises. If he is somehow loose/bad aggressive preflop but also very passive and fit or fold postflop I would have been done with the hand when he bet the flop large into two opponents, including a short stack.
  • SprinklePonySprinklePony Red Chipper Posts: 75
    It was the BB I described as passive, not the SB which is the player who 3bet. Then again, saying he's a bit face-up and fishy does mean he's on the passive side, so that is a good point. This makes me think of how quick labels can be problematic. It'd be much better to know in what ways a player is passive than to merely label them as passive. Some will just be passive just about always, but others will be generally passive yet also have aggressive tendencies in certain spots, etc. A player at my home game comes to mind, I don't think I've seen them raise once, after hundreds of games, preflop, even limp/calling with KK, that's definitely passive. Yet at the same time, they have a habit of donk-betting the flop and barreling the turn with air, as well as hands like 99 on a JT54, but also as strong as flopped trips. They also just about never 3bet postflop, but instead will bet/call the flop, then donk the turn.

    I did realize after I posted this that my note about him 3betting from the BB vs UTG with KTo was probably from this hand and I just mistakenly typed BB instead of SB (so yes, he had KTo in this hand, in fact he had the :Kc if memory serves) . My other notes on this player are that he has left a table right after being the BB; will call a 3bet OOP, then play fit-or-fold; will 3bet/fold; has cold-called on the button with 67o; and the J8 hand I mentioned. Since I don't play with him a ton, that's all I have to go on.

    Given that, I'm not sure if he is over-valuing KTo, but I'd suspect more that he does have aggressive tendencies, but will become honest later in the hand. I see what you mean about giving up on the flop, but at the same time I expect a c-bet here a huge percentage of the time (unfortunately I don't have a note on him as to if he doesn't c-bet frequently, or if he c-bets and gives up), and given I'm in position with 2 overcards, a gutshot, and a backdoor flush, I do like a float. Of course, I could just be burning money if they guy has a super-tight 3bet range, but the fact I had seen him 3bet/fold prior to this hand indicates to me that I do have fold equity on a number of turn and/or river cards.

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