1/2 Villain donks out oddly on river - what's our range?

JesseJesse Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
edited March 2016 in Live Poker Hands
Caesars 1/2 late on a Friday night (2:30am Saturday).

I'm curious what you guys think the worst hand we call the river bet should be:

I'm in seat 7.

Seat 5 is a fairly loose older asian guy from California that recently satellited into the Ballys WSOP circuit event. He's got >$500 and is giving a lot of action, button straddling, etc.

Seat 6 is a white guy, late 20's from Chicago and seems to be a somewhat loose player. I didn't see the whole hand, but i think I saw him playing a draw aggressively against another player, lost, and now recently rebought. $250 stack. No other reads.

3 limpers, I raise in CO to $15.
Seat 5 calls, seat 6 calls.

$45 pot
Flop:
:Jc:Jd:9h

Seat 5 checks, Seat 6 bets $22, I call,
Seat 5 calls.

$111 pot
Turn:
:6h

Seat 5 checks, Seat 6 bets $35, I raise to $105,
Seat 5 folds, Seat 6 tank-calls.

$321 pot
River:
:6s

Seat 6 bets $50 (has about $60 behind)

1. AJ, KJ, QJ are obvious fist-pump ships.
2. Should we raise the turn with an overpair?
3. I think I'd raise the turn with AhKh...?
4. The river bet is somewhat troubling if we have AA-QQ. The bet is small, the pot is huge, but are we good 1/8 times?
5. Call with 99 and hope he has a 6?

Hero had :Qs:Js - mentally fist-pumped, shipped river and opponent tank folds for his last $60.

Comments

  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,070 -
    Call with everything except :Kh:Th type hands (and raise the big stuff ofc)

    And yes, I'd expect to be good often enough with AA-QQ to call given the pot odds.

    Strategy Note: I can't think of many hands I'd ever go to $15 over 3 limpers with. $20+
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  • Ranceg29Ranceg29 Red Chipper Posts: 145 ✭✭
    I just wouldnt be able to bring myself to fold pocket Tens here. Just a gut feeling and also based on the price im getting.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Absurdly strong.
  • ArtArtBobartArtArtBobart Red Chipper Posts: 356 ✭✭
    SplitSuit wrote: »
    Call with everything except :Kh:Th type hands (and raise the big stuff ofc)

    And yes, I'd expect to be good often enough with AA-QQ to call given the pot odds.

    Strategy Note: I can't think of many hands I'd ever go to $15 over 3 limpers with. $20+

    It seems the pre-flop raise sizes recommended here keep growing/are a moving target. Assuming you add 1 bb per limpers, this implies your base open size at this game is $14 or 7bb. I'd be interested if the coaches would post their default raise size for common stakes (1/2, 1/3, 2/5, 5/5) vs number of limpers.
  • philby20philby20 Red Chipper Posts: 189 ✭✭
    I'd be asking myself why he bet so small on the river the pot was big enough for him to ship it with any jack I know some 1-2 players and players in general size there value bets really bad but I think I'm calling with any pair above a 9 and any q9+ wouldn't be surprised if he had like 9 10 or something similar and wanted to see a cheap show down and well if he's got a jack so be it but I'd be surprised especially with he's lead on the flop

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