2/5 Flop Decision

Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 669 ✭✭✭
2/5 Casino

Hero UTG $950 :Ac:Kd - I was playing tight and not limping much. I had just won a couple hands in a row so maybe I was looking overly active.

Villain LP $510 - He was loose passive. He played too many hands and liked to gamble. A couple hours earlier I observed him call a raise pre flop. The board came out monotone and the original better lead out and he raised and got the fold. He showed the table the ACE of flush and an off suit card.

PRE FLOP

I open for $20. Villain and BB call.

FLOP $60 :Ks:9s:6s

BB: Checks
Hero: $40
Villain: $100
B: Folds
Hero???

Villain has just over $400 back. I'm conflicted. If I had the :As I jam on him. But I have no :Xs . But my not having the :As means he could have it. I know he likes to raise his nut draws. Folding seems too weak at this point. I don't want to just call and let a :Xs peel off. Jamming seems like the play but I could be drawing next to dead if he does have the flush. I don't know what other raises I can make that don't commit him.

Thoughts on the best play given stacks and my observation of his play.

Comments

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    First you need to correlate his original raise with the Ax nut draw to this one. Usually people bluff for larger amounts, so that info will be very valuable in spots like this.
  • BenLeewoodBenLeewood Red Chipper Posts: 285 ✭✭
    If my stack is at $950 and I'm only in for $60 with AK, I'm folding this speculative hand after that flop. i was excited about AK but now it's a pretty mediocre hand. You're out cheap as far as I'm concerned. Out of position, I don't see what card could come that would make me feel good about continuing in this "soon to be huge" pot.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 780 ✭✭✭
    You had a great read and you didn't use it. Why bet?
  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 669 ✭✭✭
    sullyooo wrote: »
    You had a great read and you didn't use it. Why bet?

    I'm not following you here.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 780 ✭✭✭
    So many times we are acting with incomplete information. In this situation you were observant enough to notice what villain liked to do on monochrome flops when IP in a raised pot. He likes to raise the cbet!

    Now this is useful information all on it's own about villain and the way he thinks. But here you have the EXACT SAME SCENARIO. Something that almost never happens and you were good enough to see it!

    You have TPTK on a monochrome with no spade... a very vulnerable hand to a raise. Something we know our villain likes to do. So why should we play his game? Why bet?

    Check calling, Check raising all seem better options. Checking through is fine too

    IMO




  • Skors3Skors3 Red Chipper Posts: 669 ✭✭✭
    I see what you're saying here. But I saw him raise with the nut draw. I don't know that he likes to raise in that spot regardless of his holding.
  • philby20philby20 Red Chipper Posts: 189 ✭✭
    What about calling he's flop raise and donk betting any non spade turn card for pot size bet most players are reluctant to get stacks in with flush draw and only one card to come but will happily get it in with two cards. He could have a flush already also but the board cards block lots of hands given the raise pre flop there's only 78s a10 thru aqs
  • mdw72mdw72 Red Chipper Posts: 135 ✭✭
    TPTK is too good to fold knowing what you know against a small raise. Call, see a turn, and check it to him. His bet size on the turn will let you know where you are. If he has a hand like he did earlier he will probably check it back. If he does bet it will probably be a smallish bet giving you a good price to call. If he bets really big you can safely fold knowing he had the flush. You would only be out the extra 60. If the river misses any flush or straight you can check call most of his bets and be good. Guys that bet like he does will usually put on the breaks pretty hard if the first barrel doesn't work. If they do fire again its usually a weak attempt at a bluff. Now he knows you don't automatically give him credit for the flopped flush and probably won't raise your c-bets any more unless he has it for sure.
  • SamuelSamuel Red Chipper Posts: 18
    edited March 2016
    Of all the hands you could have in this spot, AKo is in the middle of your range. Strong hands would be KK, 99, various flushes, AsKx. Bluffs are going to be strong flush draws and combo draws. AKo should be check-called here. As played, however, you can't fold to a raise. You have to call. On the turn you are either check-calling or check-folding depending on the turn card and action
  • Ranceg29Ranceg29 Red Chipper Posts: 145 ✭✭
    I dont see why you cant just call the flop and re-evaluate on turn. Theres still plenty of playability with stacks and your hand stands to be good enough of the time imo. Even tho I think the majority of his range is hands that beat us now and hands with the :As . if you dont choose to call folding would be my number 2 play with raising being a distant distant 3rd.

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