do you fold KK to 4 bets pre-flop?

grindngrindn Red Chipper Posts: 74 ✭✭
This almost exact scenario happened twice in the past 2 weeks. Playing 1/2 NLH. I'm steadily building my stack up over several hours. New player sits down with about $150. I cover. Villain plays 3 or 4 orbits. Villain appears to be playing pretty tightly. Not in many hands so no good reads available except playing fairly nittish and overall impression from appearance an mannerisms is villain is a nit (eg. elderly white guy) . I am on the button or cutoff and villain is in middle position and bets about $12. I make a 3-bet to $30 with :Ks:Kd . Action folds back to Villain who 4-bets all in. Do you ever fold here knowing in your gut villain is only 4 betting with :As:Ad ? Or do you always call with :Ks:Kd ?
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Comments

  • JesseJesse Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    Get it in with KK, take your lumps like a man.
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    edited March 2016
    It would take a special kind of Old Man Coffee hyper-nit for me to consider it, but I'm still not really good enough to fold more often than not

    I guess if you 'know' they aren't 4 betting with QQs or AK, you can....but I think normally your just going to have to roll with it.
  • ButchButch Red Chipper Posts: 163 ✭✭
    Call. Nobody only has AA here. Even OMC usually has AK and KK and maybe QQ here. OMC does not like wipper - snappers 3 betting his QQ with damn suited connectors. Also given limited time with guy he might actually not be OMC at all.

    What do you believe your image is to this guy?

    It's all probably overthinking anyway. Kings are always a good investment.
  • DocRueDocRue Red Chipper Posts: 30 ✭✭
    I am never folding to a guy I have only seen play 3 or 4 orbits.
  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
    He has AA everytime
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 780 ✭✭✭
  • LeonardLeonard Red Chipper Posts: 249 ✭✭
    When he played his other hands did he limp or raise?

    If he never raised before I think it's AA everytime as well.

    Did you watch the video that Doug made about how an "un studied" player thinks? Doug basically said, they are there to win pots, not make money.
  • Ranceg29Ranceg29 Red Chipper Posts: 145 ✭✭
    Whats gonna put you on tilt more? Stacking off $150 with KK to AA or folding and having him show you QQ? Im kinda kidding but im kinda serious too. Folding Kings and then not knowing if it was the right fold or not could also send you off into tilt for a few orbits. Even though I agree he has AA a ton of the time here for less than 1 buy in you should snap it off. Your here to gamble and this is a gambling game and you have $30 in the pot with the 2nd best possible hand. Now when you start folding KK in this spot is when your a reg and you've developed friendly relationships with another old man coffee reg to the point where you know they wouldnt do this without Aces.

    Heres an entirely different sidenote.

    Why did you only raise from $12 to $30. Seems like you were maybe already fearing monsters under the bed from the get go and only went for a just above min raise to find out where you were at. I think your 3 bets in this spot should be around the $40-$45 range to give the OR some type of a tough decision.
  • grindngrindn Red Chipper Posts: 74 ✭✭
    Thanks for the posts.
    It would take a special kind of Old Man Coffee hyper-nit for me to consider it, but I'm still not really good enough to fold more often than not

    I guess if you 'know' they aren't 4 betting with QQs or AK, you can....but I think normally your just going to have to roll with it.
    Jesse wrote: »
    Get it in with KK, take your lumps like a man.

    This is how I've always played. Basically playing KK just like AA pre-flop, jamming and rejamming to get it all in pre-flop if possible. In this case, I 3-bet, Villain 4-bets and I call only to be shown AA on both occasions.
    GabeyJ wrote: »
    He has AA everytime
    sullyooo wrote: »
    Everytime

    Exactly right. So now I'm thinking I've got to stop making these reflex decisions and I need to stop and think about whether the old saying " the 4th bet is always AA" is correct in many of these instances and sometimes fold KK against certain villains. In 2-5 and higher games, against LAGier players and against short stacks, certainly I think never folding KK may be OK but in daytime games loaded with nits, I may have to stop and think before calling 4-bets. Clearly, many of these players play very passively and don't even 3-bet much if ever, so when there is a 4 bet, it seems to often be AA.
  • BenLeewoodBenLeewood Red Chipper Posts: 285 ✭✭
    Sometimes you just need to pay someone for having AA. Since you have only seen him play a couple orbits, this is one of those times. He could easily have 9-9, J-J or even A-Ko. There's only one hand you're behind on so let it rip.

    Folding is only an option if its a player you've played several sessions with and you have a dead read on him when he has A-A. Period.
  • BenLeewoodBenLeewood Red Chipper Posts: 285 ✭✭
    Additionally....I've been playing 1-2 and 2-2 no limit hold em. These games are hard to beat in regards to the rake. In order to come out on top session after session, you need to win a couple of these kinds of pots (all in pre flop). The only better situation for an all in pre flop is if you hold AA. You only get AA or KK ~1-220 hands. Then you NEED someone with a hand good enough to call an all in pre flop to make it pay off. So often you get these big hands and don't get paid off just cause no one else has anything.

    This is a golden opportunity to make a large amount of money on one hand. Don't pass it up. If he shows AA, you should be able to sleep fine that night, knowing that it was just a cold deck situation. If you fear monsters under the bed....you shouldn't play No Limit. Period.
  • KemahPhilKemahPhil Red Chipper Posts: 108 ✭✭
    This is AA 99% of the time. Only a real LAG would move AI in this situation with anything else and I think you've seen enough of this particular player to know that he is not one of those. If he were short-stacked, he might shove with something less but not with his actual stack.

    Fold.
  • The MuleThe Mule Red Chipper Posts: 790 ✭✭✭
    What would people do with AK here (as villain) ? What range of stack depths would you shove all-in ?
  • Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 564 ✭✭✭
    Did he accidentally flip his cards over and show you 2 aces after he shoved?

    Lets assume you play 20 hours of poker over 50 weeks at 35 hands per hour. This gives us 35000 hands. Lets assume were delt our fair share of KK at 220:1 odds. This gives us KK 160 times. According to some math geek, the chances of someone having AA at the same time is 4.4%. Lets assume you get stacked everytime this scenario occurs for 150BB. We suffer a 1050BB loss.

    Now lets assume we have a leak in our CBet game. Lets say we are making a CB mistake 10% of the time. We open 20% of hands and CB 66% of raised hands. We will also assume we open 5x and always bet half pot.

    35000*.2*.66*.1*5=2310BB Leak



    We notice improving our CB game has a hgher ceiling for opportunity.

    Lets examine ease of implimentation. Attempting to correctly fold KK will inevitably lead to us folding KK when we have the best hand some % of the time, leading to a further decrease in ev. We also have equity against AA, which wasnt baked into my math above. Lets not forget the mental game detriment to folding the best hand and the ability of our opponents to exploit us knowing we try to fold kk.

    Learning to CB properly has no detrimental affect on profitability. While we obviously cant reduce mistake frequency to zero, we can certainly decrease it by at least half. (I also believe the 10% mistake frequency is very generous just looking at my game.) lets not forget we prevent compounding our cb mistakes on turns and rivers which saves us BB.

    My point is, i dont care if he has AA, and i care even less about trying to time when he does. This is similar to investing: trying to buy at the absolute bottom and sell at the absolute top will drive you insane. Just Do your research and make sound fundamental decisions. Getting KK in for less than 100bb is going to be a sound investment a majority of the time. There are much better things to do with your poker time than wonder if you could have folded KK.

    i used to worry about these situations. This deceeased my enjoyment of the game dramatically.
  • KemahPhilKemahPhil Red Chipper Posts: 108 ✭✭
    None of your math is factoring in the actual situation where you were 4-bet by a tight player. Generalized mathematical analysis cannot be applied to every hand in real live poker. You have to take every factor involved in a particular hand into account. This is not a generic "What should I do on the button in an unraised pot" situation.

    In this particular situation, I don't believe that calling this bet with KK is going to yield a positive result. He has to have some hand other than AA over 30% of the time. That's just not likely for the opponent described. My original estimate of 1% may have been a bit low but it is certainly less than 5%.
  • roberekhanroberekhan Red Chipper Posts: 13
    What if he re-raised to 75 or so. Would you shove or call? I think all-in against a possible nit pre with KK is ok. It's just 75bb
  • Wiki_LeaksWiki_Leaks Red Chipper Posts: 564 ✭✭✭
    KemahPhil wrote: »
    None of your math is factoring in the actual situation where you were 4-bet by a tight player. Generalized mathematical analysis cannot be applied to every hand in real live poker. You have to take every factor involved in a particular hand into account. This is not a generic "What should I do on the button in an unraised pot" situation.

    This math in no way proofs "call/fold KK when I get 4 bet by a tight player." These kinds of hands are all over the forum, and in my opinion we are getting caught in the weeds and gaining very little conceptual knowledge of the game. Instead focus on other aspects of our game which happen at a much larger frequency and cost us a lot more money. The frequency with which we 4 bet and get 5 bet jammed on happens so infrequently that i dont think it really matters which you choose (and if you encounter a game where the frequency is high enough to matter, KK is a snap call anyway). One person's strategy may require a fold while mine favors calling.
  • Ranceg29Ranceg29 Red Chipper Posts: 145 ✭✭
    KemahPhil wrote: »
    I think you've seen enough of this particular player to know that he is not one of those.

    Fold.

    3 orbits?
  • roberekhanroberekhan Red Chipper Posts: 13
    A player folding first 3 orbits doens't mean he's tight. He might be observing!
  • KemahPhilKemahPhil Red Chipper Posts: 108 ✭✭
    Either tight or observing, he's a solid player who is not going to 4-bet light.
  • sparkyAAsparkyAA Red Chipper Posts: 160 ✭✭
    This many comments and no one asked what the image was of the OP through the last 3 orbits...? If you have 3 bet a couple times in the past 3 orbits this play could come from a variety of hands.

    PS Snap call
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 780 ✭✭✭
    Words like always and never should not appear too often in a sentence about poker.

  • grindngrindn Red Chipper Posts: 74 ✭✭
    sparkyAA wrote: »
    This many comments and no one asked what the image was of the OP through the last 3 orbits...? If you have 3 bet a couple times in the past 3 orbits this play could come from a variety of hands.

    PS Snap call

    mostly card dead. Playing pretty tight myself. The few hands I played, I open raised. I had not had any opportunities to 3 bet in that time and not many other players 3 betting.
  • Jimmy3150Jimmy3150 Red Chipper Posts: 362 ✭✭
    well first of all he's buying in for one of the most awkward sizings at 75BB, so you can immediately deduce he's not very good; the read on him being a passive nit is probably spot on in which case I fold KK here 100% of the time ... He is wearing AA on his forehead.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If AA is on his forehead, jimmy, less combos of it in the deck, imo. Think about it.
  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
  • ShayneShayne Red Chipper Posts: 19 ✭✭
    I had this spot just last night. 1/3 NLHE max BI $200. I am full stacked. Limps to me otb. 7 limpers. I decide to rep a steal with KK. $25. I expect at least one limper to call most nights, more on a good night. I'm 50yo. A bloke older than me makes it $61. I ask him if he plays here often? A bit. Do you know what you're doing? Usually. He looks super comfortable under my friendly interrogation. I surmise it is *highly* likely I am running into AA. But that's all it is. Highly likely. I'm trying to rep a mop up of the limpers. Perhaps I induced a resteal. I am otb, if he knows anything, I don't have to have much of anything. I should fold a ton. But he looks so happy. I call anyway, he shows me AA and seriously I don't give a rat's bum. He doesn't need many worse hands (which is ALL but 6 combos) for even thinking about this too hard to be the beginning of a big old waste of thinking time. What IS useful is to study him a while, get him talking, watch him really closely and catalog his physical demeanor. Now I have a nice stack of behaviours associated with his having the absolute top of his range. Given I was probably never folding I at least get something useful for my investment. Plus who wants to miss the feeling of cracking AA with KK? Plus you get some lecture equity. "All that gazing at me son, and you still couldn't work out you were beat". Lol. Sure thing, buddy. You're too good.
  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
    So I guess I'm the only one who likes tacos?
  • MichaelStoneMichaelStone Red Chipper Posts: 3
    Old retired guys do it quite often with onlz AA. Since you've got KK, he probably doesn't, is he really shoving with QQ or even AK? But yes, you need to get to know him a little bit more, so after 4 orbits, you should call, by my opinion.
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2016
    I'd like to do a survey and ask what hands have players ever seen 4-bet pre that's not AA in a 1/2 game.
    1/2 players just don't have the moxie or inclination to 4-bet anything other than AA.

    That said - I hate your $30 re-raise. I'd prefer it to be higher - and to raise/fold KK.

    LOL at "the dude's probably got 99, JJ or QQ."
    In a tourney, you might see that.
    In higher stake games, it's more probable (vs. a habitual 3-bettor). But in a 1/2 game where V has not raised, 3-bet or 4-bet once in 1/2 hour to 45min... he's not trying to get tricky... he's got AA.


    BTW - in my 4100+ hours of playing 1/2, 1/3 & 2/5 in the last 2+ years.... I've only seen a 4-bet pot without AA once. The dude raised with 44, got 3-bet by AA - the 3-bettor had way less than 1 SPR at this point, so 44 4-bet vs AA to put him all in. Naturally he got called and hit a 4!
    4100+ hours = approx. 143,500 hands.
    So if this happens once in 143,500 hands - I'm willing to play KK exploitatively.

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