4 bet All in with AK

AcesaladAcesalad Red Chipper Posts: 240 ✭✭
$1/$2 No Limit cash
Home game so I know the players pretty well
Villain1 & Villain2 are both loose, will call many raises but fold to 3 bets easily. Villain3 is tightest player at the table besides me but thinks I am very tight (anytime I 3 bet and he is involved he says "he's got Aces or Kings").


Villain1 posts $1.00 small blind
Villain2 posts $2.00 big blind
Villain3 calls $2.00 (Early Position)
call $2.00
Hero raises $8.00 to $10.00 (Early Position)
4 folds.
Villain1 calls $9.00
Villain2 calls $8.00
Villain3 raises $50.00 to $60.00
limper folds.
Hero raises $40.00 to $100.00
Now here I raised it to $100.00 because I was pretty sure Villain1 & Villain2 would fold and this would put Villain3 all in since he only had $35.00 left. I am thinking he has AA, KK or QQ. In retrospect it was probably a bad move. This is the way it unfolded.

Villain1 folds.
Villain2 folds.
Villain3 calls $35.00 and is all in
Total Pot is $217.00
Flop is Td 4d 3c
Turn is Jh
River is 3c
Villain3 had Tc Th
Hero had Ad Kd

Since I will likely play against this guy again, I wanted to analyze it knowing his range. Since he called with TT, his calling range in that situation is probably TT+, AK. So in this scenario, when I put $90 in, expecting him to call all in, I am risking $90 to win $127.00 ($92 in the pot plus his $35 call). I am getting 1.4 to 1 pot odds. If I am calculating it right I have to win 42% of the time. According to PokerStove I have 43% equity. So it's real close but it looks like a good call. If he adds AQ to his range it probably looks a lot better. Am I analyzing this correctly?

Comments

  • philby20philby20 Red Chipper Posts: 189 ✭✭
    Check out split suits ev calculator videos on YouTube and you should be able to calculate if good call or bad call
  • sparkyAAsparkyAA Red Chipper Posts: 160 ✭✭
    Curious about your thoughts on this

    "Since he called with TT, his calling range in that situation is probably TT+, AK" is probably an inefficient look at it. The one time you raise his reraise he has what you consider absolute bottom of his range? He thinks you are super tight, meaning you probably won't play back at him with anything but the absolute top of your range. Therefore, his reraise is more for fold equity (hence the sizing), and he happened to have TT here but could easily have Ax or Kx. Is this the type of player that would limp AA or KK? By the way the hand is described, player 3 can make this play with any hand and show +EV because your range is so narrow and the other two players in the hand have shown weakness and are going to be out of position to him postflop.

    The moral of this post is it is important to be open-minded when it comes to range building
  • SplitSuitSplitSuit RCP Coach Posts: 4,070 -
    You can also use this free EV tool to calculate it by just adding a few numbers: http://redchippoker.com/simple-poker-ev-calculator/
    📑 Grab my custom poker spreadsheet pack right now.
    📘 Start the Preflop & Math Poker Workbook today.
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    edited March 2016
    I think their might be some faulty perceptions here. The 'tightest' player just limp raised you, with pocket 10s, in a stack committing move. He views you as super tight, but he's doing this with 10s? A back-raise is generally used against players that are over aggressive, not under

    I could be wrong, but one of the reasons AKs is a great semibluff hand, is it has blockers to AA/KKs, however if their isn't fold equity, their relative value goes down a lot.

    Looks like you are crunching the numbers correctly, risk / (risk+reward) and comparing them to a range analysis fine. I'm personally not too sure AKo is going to be in their, which is actually the difference in profitable/not profitable if you want to use 10s+ AK. Marginally not profitable, but regardless. The villains that are going to overlimp AA/KK are few and far between, unless their is some aggro-spaz going on at the table

    I'd also take note on future hands with the back raise with this villain. It was a very odd line, IMO. The 6x your raise for pot commitment makes it look like they don't want a call, but are just going to go with it if they do get more action. Did the V buy in short or take some beats? It seems like a very tilt-y line
  • AcesaladAcesalad Red Chipper Posts: 240 ✭✭
    I actually forgot about the fact that he limped in. This is your typical loose $1/$2 table where some players preflop open raise to $12 or $15. This guy will raise to $20 or $30 and it's usually with QQ+, AK (and somehow he gets callers). I think he bought in short, but not sure, I'll have to pay attention to this next time also. I don't know why he made this raise with TT if he thinks I am so tight. If he really thinks I would only do it with AA, KK it's a ridiculous move. Either I have AA and I'm not going anywhere or he thinks it 50-50 I have KK and will fold because I think (from his statement about me) that he must have AA and I will fold my KK.

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