Extracting value

Eager StudentEager Student Red Chipper Posts: 66
Hi,

Hoping for suggestions and ideas on extracting value when flopping a set after attacking limpers.

A recreational player $300 stack limped MP2.

A recreational player $200 stack limped MP3.

I pre flop raised to $20 with :2c:2s in the high jack seat $490 stack.

Only MP2 called the raise $280 behind.

I expect limpers in this game to have about a 40% range, but fold about half that range to a 19% range .

Pot $41 Flop :Td:6d:2h

MP2 checked.

I bet $40.

MP2 called leaving $240 behind.

Pot $125


When he called the $40, it thought his range was.

JJ, TT, 66. 99, 88, 77, 55, 44, 33, 22, ATs. KTs. QTs, JTs, T9s, 76s, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo, T9o, 76s, :Ad:Kd , :Ad:Qd , :Ad:Jd , :Ad:9d , :Ad:8d , :Ad:7d , :Ad:5d , :Ad:4d , :Ad:2d , :Kd:Qd , :Kd:Jd , :Qd:Jd , :Jd:9d , :9d:8d , :9d:7d , :8d:7d , :5d:4d ,

Pot $125

Turn was :Tc

What size bet would you make to gain the maximum value and why?

All comments, suggestions, comments, criticisms and recommendations are welcome.

Thank you,
Eager Student

Comments

  • Ranceg29Ranceg29 Red Chipper Posts: 145 ✭✭
    Im betting somewhere near 1/2 pot here. I dont wanna bet so much that a tighter player just gives up with his flush draw if he has that. If we bet 1/2 pot he might talk himself into us having an overpair or AK and shove to rep the ten. Also if we bet 1/2 pot we may also get that shove if he actually has the ten. As long as you can get stacks in on the river vs a Ten or a FD if he just calls and hits which you should because riv will be a pot sized bet albeit a large one however it should look a little bluffy. Also make sure the rivers not a Ten or a Six lol.
  • 141520amanda141520amanda Red Chipper Posts: 6
    He will never call a river bet unless he has T, so 1/2 as default.
  • BenLeewoodBenLeewood Red Chipper Posts: 285 ✭✭
    I like $80. Betting 20 then 40 then 80. It just sounds right. I'd also be playing it fast. If he thinks he has a winner he's going to lead out on the river. That would be the time to raise him all in.

  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
    edited March 2016
    You want your line to be pretty bluffy. What line do you think you would take if you were bluffing? It would prob include bigger bet sizes and set up playing for stacks.
  • ChipXtractorChipXtractor Red Chipper Posts: 1,193 ✭✭✭✭
    He will never call a river bet unless he has T, so 1/2 as default.

    Can you explain your reasoning? Do you believe he calls the paired turn with flush draws if you go 1/2 pot? If so, he then folds river cards that complete his draw? Not sure I agree.
  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    edited March 2016
    This is actually one of the textures I'd rather bet 2/3rds on the flop. It's dry flop and doesn't really hit our.

    25 on the flop (63%)
    60 on the turn (66%)

    195 jam on river (97.5%) (if we choose to 3 barrel)

    Being a recreational player, I generally will put them more yes or no ranges. They'll call or fold, with very little distinguishing between sizing. Maybe we can size it down on the river if everything bricks out or villain looks increasingly uncomfortable. If we put them on a 10 and the FD comes in, I don't think I'm going full value
  • Eager StudentEager Student Red Chipper Posts: 66
    Does it make sense to make a bet size that keeps all his pairs JJ, 99, 88, 77, 55, 44, 33 (42 combos) in the hand.

    If so, what size works for that and the best possibility of keeping the flush draws in?
  • kageykagey Red Chipper, KINGOFTAGS Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
    ES -
    good q's
    but much of your sizing and "extracting value" in this situation comes from understanding the players in the hand
    for example - if you had :Ad:Kd - how would you have played this hand?
    do you always c-bet?
    do you c-bet small?
    do you bet flop and check turn?
    does V always have a piece of the flop here? or does he float you?
    would he call with an underpair?
    would he check/fold if he had 99?
    would he check/raise if he had JT?

    in my games - I would try to keep my V in the dark. I would not want him to know that I liked the turn. So I would either bet big (bluffy) or bet the same (weak).
    but a lot of this depends on how you play your hands - and whether or not this V would be paying attention to you/your bet sizing.

    Your range analysis is all over the place and hard to see why he has such a large range of combinations (btw he can't have 22 unless you're playing with 2 decks!).

    I'd put him on a flush draw, a Tx, 76 or 99, 88, 77... period.
    I don't think TT or 66 is check calling.
    And I think JJ is check/raising.
    But it depends on your V - and how your games play.
    Is he trappy? Why no description on him other than stack sizes?

    If you bet "same bet" -
    flush draw calls
    76 calls
    99 calls
    88 calls
    77 calls
    and Tx probably raises.

    If you bet larger, me thinks
    flush draw mucks
    76 folds
    99, 88, 77 calls 50% of time
    Tx probably raises.

    So to max your profit - I think a "same bet" prevents V from mucking while building the pot. But that's without knowing anything about your V.
  • SullySully Red Chipper Posts: 780 ✭✭✭
    Ranging rec player kind of a waste of time IMO. They can have anything. Including T,6

    In many cases sizing a bet thinking about how they will perceive it also probably fruitless. As FithyCasual says they will fold or call based on their holdings

    In this case villain has already shown inelasticity on flop call so I would try a bet on the high side. Because sometimes there is a $100 freak out line I would bet $85-$90

    Jam the river

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