+ ev but maybe could have folded

philby20philby20 Red Chipper Posts: 189 ✭✭
$1-3 no limit
i limped utg with :8d:8s it was a passive table so i thought it would get limped around and i could set mine raising was probably a good option also, this is near the worst of my utg range table dependent of course
It was folded around to middle position bad fish he was short stacked after losing a few hands recently and liked to play every hand he went all in for $62 it was folded back around to me and i thought for a bit and figured he would do this with a range of

22-jj
A-10s+
A-j+
J-10s
Q-Js
K-Qs
K-Q

it could have even been wider with the broad way hands. I didn't think he would do this with any premium pairs because he would want to get max value.
I decided to call and he had AQo and rivered an ace so i wrote the hand down and done an ev calculation when i got home and given the range i assinged it was +$13.3 so it was a plus ev call but i'm unsure if i am risking to much here for little return obviously its great if he has a smaller pair but the times he has broadways he has decent equity. Would you fold or call given the range ect?

Comments

  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
    Snap call. But I'm curious as to why limping to hit a set from utg was your game plan? You said so yourself the table was passive. So how much do you plan on making when you flop a set in a limped pot?
  • philby20philby20 Red Chipper Posts: 189 ✭✭
    i see what u mean i probably should have raised or folded i think $12 would have been good enough.
  • tagliustaglius Red Chipper Posts: 290 ✭✭
    standard raise from UTG - several bad players will call anyway and you'll make a ton more in a bigger pot when you hit your set.

    The call for 21 BB with a mid pair is a no-brainer vs this guy - and your EV analysis proves it.

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