AKo line?

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
Local casino $1/2 game.

Villain is asian guy late 30s or early 40s. Thinking player and a little on the tight side. I think he has a betting tell where he is opening $10 weaker hands (small pairs, SCs, some speculative broadway) and raising or opening larger with his big Pairs and strong hands TT+ AK+. Overall a pretty solid player with decent sizing vs randoms if they are not paying attention.

EP 1-3 all fold.
MP1 villain opens ($20)
Folds to hero in SB ($350 effective) :Ac:Ks calls $20

Flop ($43): :Kd:9s:3c
Hero: check
Villain: bets $20
Hero: calls

turn ($83) :Kd:9s:3c:Js
Hero: check
Villain bets $35
Hero: calls $35

River ($153) :Kd:9s:3c:Js:As
Hero: check
Villain: check

Given my preflop read of this situation being TT+ AK+ his entire range bets the flop, but what hands continue on the turn? Should I lead river or let him keep the initiative?

Bluffing range: TT, QQ,
Value: AK, JJ, KK, AA,

He could have a wider range, but I do not see him opening AQo, 88, AJ, ATB, for 10x preflop with no limpers in front of him. If there were limpers in front of him and then he made it $20 I am more likely to 3bet preflop, but I generally stick to a more polarized range of QQ+ AKs and some low SCs or small PP I do not think i have implied odds with oop, but think he will fold pre.

As always thank you in advance for thoughts / criticisms.

Comments

  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
    You need to do a better job of putting pressure on his range. I'd suggest c/r this flop and going from there. This is a very passive line to take post flop. Even pre I would be 3 betting this almost always
  • The MuleThe Mule Red Chipper Posts: 790 ✭✭✭
    I think I like a C/R on the turn better - the flop is pretty dry, there aren't many hands you would raise that wouldn't 3-bet pre-flop. The board gets pretty wet on the turn however, and there are a lot of hands I would like to bluff so I think I would want to raise my strong hands, of which TPTK is probably at the bottom end. Also his turn bet is pretty small so I would like to get more money in, charge for any draws he may have.

    I'd also be 3-betting this pre-flop most of the time.
  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
    As the hand played he actually has a ton of hands that should raise this flop that didn't 3 bet pre. Any number of turn cards could get bad for us if we let him get away with a standard c bet. And I'm sure he will be balanced enough in this spot to raise with some bluffs which would be gut shots with back door flush draws
  • Ranceg29Ranceg29 Red Chipper Posts: 145 ✭✭
    Given the description of this villain IF the preflop range you have him on is accurate I find his turn bet to be very telling. Looks to me like hes most likely continuing with QQ with a small chance of AK. I feel like if he had a better hand he'd bet bigger on the turn as is very typical of competent 1-2 players here. Even AK might size bigger. Tens would likely give up. However if you think he never calls with QQ on the turn to a check raise than you'd be overplaying your hand a bit by doing so.

    Honestly I dont like 3 betting pre just for the sake of 3 betting given his strong range. If we think we can fold out his Tens and Jacks and AK some of the time then sure. I also HATE just calling 10BBs OOP with AK vs a strong range. I've folded in this spot before against nittier players who would only open QQ+ like this. TT+ may be a little wide to find a fold button tho.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    He ended up having QQ so my preflop range seems accurate. Check raise flop makes sense since i will do this with my bluffs if I think they are weak. Check raising the turn seems like im turning AK into a bluff and would rather have a hand like JT then AK or KQ. I don't understand the check raise on the turn vs the range i have him. He either has us beat or he has little equity vs us with a QQ TT hand. Why check raise the turn and turn my hand into a bluff vs a hand that has like 13% equity against us if we are ahead of him. While allowing him to get max value vs us if he has a hand like AA, KK, JJ.
  • The MuleThe Mule Red Chipper Posts: 790 ✭✭✭
    Ah sorry I missed your range assumption. I guess all the poker training videos and forum discussions aren't going to make me into a good player if I'm going to ignore important information handed to me on a platter.

    With the range you put him on, I agree a raise on the turn doesn't accomplish anything, unless you think the size is weak in which case I would consider a small raise.

    With the range you have him on, he has no gutshots and no backdoor flush draws. I suspect you also probably have pretty limited number of these - I take back my earlier assertion that you probably have lots of hands you want to bluff on the turn or even the flop (hard for me to comment on what your range might be, but my calling range from the small blind is pretty tight). I'm not sure what turn cards are bad for us ? The one we got is about as bad as it could get, and apart from improving the 3 combos of JJ he might have, all it does is give his QQ and TT a reason to bluff another street (and possibly call a small check raise ?).

    I just don't see the point in raising the flop on such a dry board and given how strong his range is. If we raise our AK on the flop maybe we get value from QQ - TT. But how comfortable are we when our turn bet gets called ? And if we bet river, we're probably chopping if we're lucky. If we just call the flop with both our value and potential bluffs, we get more info on the turn, and can bluff the river if he checks back the turn.
  • jeffncjeffnc Red Chipper Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Austin wrote: »
    He ended up having QQ so my preflop range seems accurate.

    Just remember that one hand doesn't necessarily make your range accurate.

    Anyway, this represents a whole class of hands that fit this scenario - OOP vs. a tight player making a big raise preflop with a perceived strong range on a dry board. There are multiple ways to play this hand, including folding preflop which I don't think is bad. Also reraising preflop is a possibility, with the intent of ending it right there, or flopping TPTK if called. But if reraised you have to fold.

    Now you're not in good shape against his range, in fact you're only 40%. So trying to outplay his range postflop OOP is not a very good idea. In this case, you might have taken the best line, i.e. a passive one, with smallish betting action. But if your best case scenario is a passive line with small bets (in other words small implied odds) when you hit, is this hand worth playing? The problem is you're either losing to him, or you're trying to keep him in the hand by letting him bluff. Unless you planned to bluff him in case you missed.

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
    GabeyJ wrote: »
    As the hand played he actually has a ton of hands that should raise this flop that didn't 3 bet pre.

    What are these hands?
  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
    I'm assuming he is also flatting in the small blind with all Broadway's and pocket pairs lower then QQ
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Given stack depth against a tight raising player i might flat everything in my range including kk and aa and hope for low board to extract max value where 3 betting might fold out too much of the hands i want in tt jj ak. I have to build more history with him to see how he reacts to 3 bets still.

    I think on a low turn I might donk bet like 1\3 pot to get value from tt-qq. Really dislike the J. Also if I had lower set i would donk bet turn as well possible check raise but as board gets wet more money is definitely going in.

    Thank you everyome for your thoughts. AQ i am folding in sb and AKs i am 3 betting and folding to 4 bet unless its tiny. AKs only cause i have tiny bit more barreling opportunities.
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭
    GabeyJ wrote: »
    I'm assuming he is also flatting in the small blind with all Broadway's and pocket pairs lower then QQ

    That's interesting. So how many of your SB hands are you advising to x/r on the Kxxr board? Are you trying to put pressure on all underpairs from villain? What are you calling with? What is a fold. I'd like to hear about this spot in your game.
  • GabeyJGabeyJ Red Chipper Posts: 436 ✭✭✭
    I just meant for him really I play 3bet or fold from Sb unless I am going way to multi way but if I was flatting with Broadway's and I'm not gong to go into detail as people from my games read this
  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,308 ✭✭✭✭✭

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