Gross board rollout

jbruelsjbruels Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
Live 3/5NL

Hero on the button with 3-3 and $600 behind
Four limper, hero limps, sb complete, bb checks
Seven ways, $35
Flop 3-6-5 all clubs
Checks around to hero who bets $25
Cutoff calls
Heads up, $85
Turn 7 h
Checks to hero who bets $70
Villain calls
Heads up, $225
River 9s
Villain bets $160

Villain is new to me, youngish guy with about $1k behind ($500 max buy-in). Haven't noticed him being much out of line. Assumed to be standard reg, loose passive, playing lots of hands. With a limped pot his range is very wide, any two suited, not likely to be A-Q plus although limp re-raising isn't unheard of in this game. Obviously a slow played flush or made straight on the turn or river are concerns. With these odds, he'd have to be bluffing at least a third of the time, is that right? Any other thoughts?

Comments

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    He would have to be bluffing more than 29% with $385 in the pot (including his bet). $160 into $385 is 2.4 to 1. Being 7 ways I think its likely someone could have a flush already. You bet pretty big on the turn, so he might fold his AcX hand given he is oop and unlikely to get paid off on a 4th club. I think fold is very reasonable on the river.
  • jbruelsjbruels Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    Yep, not knowing much more about villain, I just didn't think he was capable of a river bluff like this because almost no one in my games plays like that. Lots of people will throw a $40 bet out there as sort of a blocking play, hoping for a cheap showdown, but his bet sizing doesn't say this. I folded.

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