Would you fire a second barrel here with AK?

HappyJohnHappyJohn Red Chipper Posts: 3
Live 2/5. Hero (me) is in the SB with AKo. UTG smart young pro raises to 20. Old guy in middle position calls. I squeeze to 80 hoping to take it down OOP. Pro calls. Old guy folds. Effective stacks 1000. Not an ideal spot, but here we are.

Flop 2s 3c 8d. I fire $90. He calls. Turn 3s.

Decision here: do I check, effectively giving up on the pot, as a young pro will bet many hands here. I decided to fire a second barrel for $130. My thinking was that I wouldn't get a high overpair to fold to that bet size, but if he floated with hands like 44, 55, 66, 77, or 99, he might respect the second barrel and fold. The same goes for holdings like 89s or 78s.

He calls $130. River is the 4d. At this point, I put him on a decently high overpair 99-JJ, possibly even QQ, and I decide that it would take a very large bet to move him off of the hand, and that this still might not even work. I surrender. Check-check. He has JJ.

Feel free to rip apart my play. Would most of you check the turn here instead? Overbet the river?

Comments

  • persuadeopersuadeo Red Chipper Posts: 4,310 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The young pro will not likely flat Ax, and choose to 4bet, but will flat many big pairs. Your play is reasonable, but a more sophisticated way of thinking about it is knowing in advance how many shells you want to fire, or having a checking or check raising range that will allow you to not let him show down the winner as often or take multiple streets of value from you in position.

    Bet sizing influences action. When you fire only $130 it is a bet disguised as value, so you know you have to play this like aces if you are going to drag him along with a small bet. So once you mark that box, it is better to follow up. If you don't want to mark that box, then you can quit in advance, or fire a bigger shell with the intention of checking the river because he already knows stacks are in play. The turn barrel either threatens stacks or it doesn't, in this case your betting code suggested AA has one more bet in it or you have a bluff. The solution is always in the planning.

    In general attacking a pro's UTG range is not going to be the most profitable spot so you should expect this hand to go down negatively fairly often. The pro will not likely call your three bet with suited connectors unless you are deeper. Think about his range, even if mashing the raise button is the right play. NH.
  • jbruelsjbruels Red Chipper Posts: 134 ✭✭
    persuadeo wrote: »
    The turn barrel either threatens stacks or it doesn't, in this case your betting code suggested AA has one more bet in it or you have a bluff. The solution is always in the planning. NH.

    I love this. Once villain calls the flop, the question is, does he want to play for stacks? If you the the answer is no, fire away. With the UTG open I don't think we are betting for value anymore when he calls. I'd probably flat pre, check-call flop. He checks back the turn I'm probably stealing on the river.
  • mdw72mdw72 Red Chipper Posts: 135 ✭✭
    Your perceived range totally whiffs this board. So if you want to try and barrel him off his hand your bet sizes should be bigger. You're OOP so betting bigger to 100 or even 110 sells AA or KK better than 80. The 100 has a psychological effect too. Your flop bet is only 10 more than your 3bet. This isn't giving him the impression you are in love with your hand and are trying to get stacks in.

    Even by my advice if he calls the flop you will have to decide if a bigger barrel is going to work before you fire it off. As played the pot is 360. Your bet is less than half and not very scary for his 3bet calling range. If you had more equity in a straight or flush draw I could see a smaller bet. As is you are drawing to an Ace or a King and that's about it. A Queen may come on the river but that hits his calling range pretty good too and a bet may get called no matter what. Under my scenario you probably have to bluff shove, but it makes more sense with the story the bigger bets would be telling. As played check fold is your best play.

  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I wouldn't bet the turn. I would either give up or check raise and shove river. Same way I would play KK or AA on this run out as most of his 3 bet calling range is 99-qq and AK. Most players feel they have to bet 99-qq on the turn to "protect their hand" against AK which only has 13% equity going to the river. If you feel he will fold as said earlier check raise is prettier than triple barrel i think. Easier for him to decide if he wants to play for stacks or not before river comes.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file