300bb deep line (folding a flush?)

AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
This is a hand i viewed during my last session which I think would be a fold if there is no history with villain, bu villain apparently is not the bluffing type either.

Preflop was basically limped pot 7 ways I believe ($5 each) $1/2/2 game.

FLOP ($35) :3c:6c:7c
everyone checks

Turn ($35) :3c:6c:7c:Js
SB ($600) Checks
EP: bets $20
MP: calls $20
BU: calls $20
SB: check raises to $100
(everyone else folds)
MP: raises all in ($600 effective)
SB: :9c:8c thinks forever and ends up calling

I was thinking about it and there are no flushes besides 4c2c that he beats. I think its a fold being this deep. Thoughts? I mean what is is MP slow playing flop with, but falls in love with J in a limped pot for 300bb deep with?

Comments

  • FilthyCasualFilthyCasual Red Chipper Posts: 871 ✭✭✭
    edited March 2016
    Maybe they were waiting to see if anyone wanted to rep a flush while sitting on :AC::XC: so they can go for Max value. Could be waiting for a 4th club so the :KC: can hopefully tee off into the trap. Once SB reps the flush, they figure they don't need the 4th club to get paid

    Less than likely imo:
    Maybe a :AC::JH: and they figured they'd just go for it or they hit trips with the :JC: redraw. These just seem so spewey at 300bb, but against the right rec, I can see it happening. And being 'not the bluffing type', I don't know if either of these are plausible. I could see them sitting on 45, and after there is minimal interest on the flop, they justify a jam figuring everyone is drawing to one more club.

    Last thought: does the casino have a qualifier for jackpot hands that they need to get to the turn to be valid? I don't know why you would over shove with the :4c: :5c: , but just another thought
  • Ranceg29Ranceg29 Red Chipper Posts: 145 ✭✭
    I think SBs thought process could be this: "he prolly has a bigger flush but I have a made flush with and open ended str8 flush draw. IM NOT FOLDING"

    If theres a bad beat jackpot or even so much as a high hand jackpot that pays $100 this will justify his thought process to himself.
  • AustinAustin Red Chipper Posts: 5,483 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ranceg29 wrote: »
    I think SBs thought process could be this: "he prolly has a bigger flush but I have a made flush with and open ended str8 flush draw. IM NOT FOLDING"

    He was announcing this out loud basically. Guy on business from texas, but he was up $500 coming from a 2/5 game and figured he would still be up $100 or even on the session if he lost so forced him to call. If he was stuck I think he would still call because he went on to rebuy a couple times.

    You guys would fold in this spot right in general unless you have some history with the villain? BTW there is no bad beat jackpot here. Villain ended up having J7 for a massively over played top 2 pair lol.
  • JCWJCW Red Chipper Posts: 93 ✭✭
    When all the players check through the flop, it typically means they missed or they are strong. Yes some of the players can have weak value or draws they are pot controlling/safe card to bet. This players will most likely be in the front and not the back. Mid to late position players with weak/mid value will want to protect on such a draw heavy board.

    When the villain c/R after two players call a EP 1/2pot bet... there is really only a couple of situations.

    1. Villain sees two players call and thinks they are weak so bluffs (most likely holdings weak value/draws) hoping to get though the first player with a Turn Squeeze. This is a great play to make with hands that have draws with them.

    2. He is "protect" info bet with a Jx type of hand. Not the NOT the best of plays but it is out there. He is basically turning the best hand into a bluff in the hopes of winning the pot right there. Unfortunately he is doing this oop and will have problems against anyone that calls.

    3. He is a nutty hand. Some guys will only c/R their big hands especially oop. They this this is how you play NL. It was how NL way played/taught for a long time. That NL is a trapping game. So they always trap.

    On the river, when he bombs the pot (x2 pot AI bet)... he is typically very weak or very strong. Few players would ever have mid-value hands here with this sizing (or most sizing). Even thin value bettors wouldn't go for thin value here out of position unless it was a planned bet/fold. And a x2 pot All In excludes that action.

    On turn and river (and to a lesser extent flop) he has shown to be polarized in his actions (very weak or very strong). Not just one street! First on the flop by checking (most rec players don't bet the nuts), turn c/R (most reg players don't c/R light) and river (most rec players don't bet Rivers thin/x2 pot thin). Few Recs will overbet pot bluff. So if this guy is bluffing he is a special breed of player (they are out there but rare).

    Meanwhile, Hero has called a c/R on turn. This either means he has a mid+ value and/or strong draw. Hero Range includes sets, 2p and even some flushes along with some 1p with A-Qx type of hands (AcJ, KcJ, QcJ, etc). This is not a weak range. There might be some weak value/big draw hands but this focus around 4c/5c.... hands that would have little showdown value given the action. Like a 5c6 hand (most players will fold this to a c/R). Basically, any value hand Villain has wins at showdown and doesn't need to bluff (that doesn't stop some from bluffing).

    So after all of these actions, I would NOT think villain has any mid value hands in range. If he has a bluffs, then he is willing to risk 300bb against a hand that has already called a c/R. He is also willing to bomb into Hero on River oop. It is harder to bluff into someone that has not shown weakness on the River. It means it was a planned bluff over two streets (Villain was planning to bluff most Rivers). Many Rec players do not think this way.

    There are players that can make a suicide bluff like this (Suicide bluff = bluffing into strength) but not the typical villain. Only if he has a Hard Time to leave and NEEDS to lose the chips (more common than most player accept but that is a different story). But this can be obvious because he is constantly looking at clock/phone etc and getting into some very advance live reads.

    I would think that given the size of the bet & action, this is Never a bluff except from the most aggressive-suicidal of players.


    What I would do next: Honestly the only thing that is important from seeing a hand like this played out.

    If you end up saying it was a bluff, then I would take a mental note of this Villain as a River Bluffer and would adjust his Ranges to have a lot of bluffs in them. I would be forced to call him down a lot until he has shown me he has adjust. I would also look to see if his big bets are often bluffs and exploit. I would look for this player whenever I came into the casino and move to his table. I would immediately move to have position on him.

    If you tell me he has Axcc/Kxcc, I would think his river bet shows bad sizing unless he thinks Hero has a flush (then it was kickass). Little to adjust here except to have more respect for his c/R and big bets.

    If he has 54cc, then the only take away is that he went big value at the end. Targeting only a small part of Hero's range (flushes and stubborn sets). Nice to take note of if you don't see him go AI often. Some guys will not bet big without Nutty hands... so look for spots he bets big without them (you might not find any).

    If he turns over some lesser flush, set, 2p then I would classify the player as someone that can overvalue hands and adjust. You will have to call more often on River with the top of your Range.

    Lastly, Hero call with the 98cc! This is one of the best take away to learn. He didn't bet flop! He flatted turn! He flatted the c/R! And he called the x2 pot bet!!!! There is a ton here to learn from and adjust. This guy is passive and trappy. And he has Thresholds (hand strengths he will not fold regardless of action/board). He is the type of guy what goes home and says to the wife/friend/etc.... "yeah I get so unlucky! I flopped a flush and he had a bigger flush and I went broke. Unlucky me."

    Exploit this the most! When you suspect you got luck on him and he has a big hand... go big with your value. Rake it in.


Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file